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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Toronto-Raptors February 7th 2025
At 8:00 ET, the Toronto Raptors (+1084) will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (-2204) in a non-conference matchup. The Thunder are favored by 19 points with the over/under line set at 230.5.
Currently, the Raptors are 13th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 16-35 and are on a two-game losing streak. On the other hand, the Thunder are 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 40-9 and have won their last three games.
Raptors vs. Thunder Key Information
- Sport: NBA
- Teams: Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder
- Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
- Date: Friday, February 7th
- Betting Odds OKC -19, TOR +1084 | OKC -2204 O/U 230.5
The Raptors Can Win If…
The Raptors dropped to 16-35 on the season after a 138-107 home loss to the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Toronto, who entered the game as +10.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total score of 245 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 236.
Toronto led 29-22 after the 1st quarter but struggled afterward. A key moment came when Memphis went on an 11-0 run, stretching the score from 61-55 to 72-55. The Grizzlies dominated the 2nd half, outscoring the Raptors 43-25 in the 3rd quarter and 42-23 in the 4th.
In their 138-107 loss to the Grizzlies, the Raptors shot just 39.8% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc, though they did hit 12 threes. Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, and Ochai Agbaji each scored 14 points, with Agbaji hitting 3 threes at a 75% clip.
Shead made 2 threes at 40%, and added 6 points in the 4th quarter. Agbaji also contributed 8 points in the 1st quarter, while Gradey Dick scored 7 of his 13 points in the 2nd.
Defensively, the Raptors started strong, giving up just 22 points in the 1st quarter, but they struggled in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, allowing 31, 43, and 42 points, respectively, in a 138-107 loss to the Grizzlies. Toronto couldn’t contain Memphis, who shot 52% from the field.
The Raptors also had trouble defending the three-point line, where the Grizzlies connected on 16 threes at a 42% clip. Toronto sent Memphis to the line 38 times, where they made 28 free throws. The Raptors recorded 11 steals and 3 blocks in the game.
- In their last five road games, Toronto has averaged 114 points per game while allowing 109 . The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
- As the betting underdog, the Raptors have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Toronto posted a straight up mark of 6-4 in these matchups.
- Over their last five games, the Raptors have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
The Thunder Can Win If…
The Thunder improved to 40-9 this season with a dominant 140-109 win over the Suns on Wednesday. Playing at home, Oklahoma City was favored by 13 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total of 249 points went over the 229.5-point line.
A key moment came when the Thunder went on a 15-0 run, turning a close 63-61 game into a 76-63 lead. They then held the Suns to just 16 points in the 3rd quarter while scoring 43, and finished strong with a 36-30 edge in the 4th.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to a 140-point performance in their win over the Suns, scoring 50 points with 18 coming in the 3rd quarter. He shot 62.1% from the field and made 3 threes at 42.9% efficiency.
As a team, the Thunder shot 51% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 28.6% of their threes, with 12 made. Aaron Wiggins added 17 points, 9 of which came in the 3rd quarter.
Despite giving up 33 points in the 1st quarter, the Thunder tightened up defensively in the 3rd, allowing just 16 points to the Suns. Overall, they gave up 109 points on 47% shooting from the field.
From beyond the arc, the Thunder allowed 14 threes on 38% shooting. They also sent the Suns to the line 33 times, where they made 29 free throws. Defensively, the Thunder grabbed 29 rebounds, allowed 3 offensive boards, and recorded 15 steals and 4 blocks.
- In their last three games at home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 0-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 108 points per game in these contests.
- The Thunder have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
- In their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 3-0 vs. the spread.
The Lean
Not only do we have the Thunder winning this one by a score of 126-92, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Thunder at -19.
Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 230.5, and our model predicts the Raptors and Thunder to score a combined 218 points. We recommend betting on the under.
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Thunder Set for Major Boost with Holmgren’s Return
The Oklahoma City Thunder (39-14) have been one of the NBA’s most dominant teams this season, even without star center Chet Holmgren, who has missed nearly three months with a pelvic fracture.
Now, Holmgren is expected to return Friday as OKC hosts the Toronto Raptors (22-30), a team in transition after multiple trade deadline moves.
Despite missing their 7-foot-1 center, the Thunder have gone 32-7 in his absence and currently sit second in the Western Conference.
Will Holmgren’s return make OKC even stronger, or can Toronto spoil his comeback?
Oklahoma City Thunder: Holmgren Returns to Powerhouse Lineup
Recent Performance
- Record: 39-14 (2nd in Western Conference)
- Last Game: Defeated Phoenix 140-109
- Winning Streak: 3 games (by 31+ points per game)
Oklahoma City has been on a dominant stretch, winning its last three games by an average of 31 points per game.
🔥 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SG): Averaging 40+ PPG over last 7 games, three 50-point games
🔥 Isaiah Hartenstein (C): Career-best 11.4 PPG, 12.2 RPG in 29 games
🔥 Chet Holmgren (C, Returning): 16.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 2.6 BPG before injury
OKC is also adding another key element—for the first time this season, Holmgren and Hartenstein will play together, providing the Thunder with a deadly frontcourt combination.
Coach Mark Daigneault praised the team’s resiliency during Holmgren’s absence:
“This is a resilient, tough, competitive team. And that’s what we’re going to be regardless of the circumstances.”
Now, the Thunder are even more dangerous, with Holmgren’s rim protection and scoring back in the mix.
Toronto Raptors: Shorthanded After Trade Deadline Moves
Recent Performance
- Record: 22-30 (11th in Eastern Conference)
- Last Game: Lost to Memphis 138-107
- Injury Report: Jakob Poeltl (hip), RJ Barrett (concussion) OUT
Toronto has lost two straight games, including a 31-point blowout against the Grizzlies, and now faces a red-hot OKC team.
Key Players to Watch
✅ Scottie Barnes (SF): Leads team with 19.9 PPG, but struggled vs. Memphis (14-of-18 missed shots)
✅ Brandon Ingram (SF, Newly Acquired): Expected to make Toronto debut after being traded from New Orleans
✅ P.J. Tucker (PF, Newly Acquired): Veteran presence who adds toughness
Toronto shook up its roster by acquiring Brandon Ingram from the Pelicans and P.J. Tucker from Miami, but with Poeltl and Barrett sidelined, the Raptors will be at a size disadvantage against Holmgren and Hartenstein.
After a 129-92 loss to OKC on Dec. 5, Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic admitted OKC set the standard for physicality and aggression:
“There’s a lot from us to look at that team and learn about the physicality they play with, how they’re aggressive.”
The question remains: Can Toronto handle OKC’s physicality this time?
Key Matchups & Storylines
Chet Holmgren’s Return & Impact
✅ How will Holmgren perform after nearly three months away?
✅ Can he improve OKC’s already strong defense (2nd in NBA in defensive rating)?
✅ Will Holmgren & Hartenstein dominate the Raptors’ shorthanded frontcourt?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Scoring Streak
✅ SGA has scored 50+ points three times in his last seven games
✅ Averaging 40.1 PPG over that span
✅ Will Toronto have any answer for his red-hot offense?
Brandon Ingram’s Debut for Toronto
✅ Ingram hasn’t played since Dec. 7 (ankle injury)
✅ If he plays, will he make an immediate impact?
✅ How will he fit into Toronto’s system?
Game Details
📅 Date: Friday, February 9, 2024
🕒 Time: 8:00 PM ET
📍 Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
📺 TV: NBA League Pass
Will Chet Holmgren’s return make the Thunder even stronger, or can Toronto find a way to pull off a shocking upset?
