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So many shocking results in the NFL last week. And that always brings up the question as to what we should expect from the numbers that follow.
For example, is Denver going to be overvalued after slapping the Dallas Cowboys around – on the road? How angry are the Buffalo Bills after being completely embarrassed against Jacksonville, and are the oddsmakers expecting too much from them as they try to rebound it?
And as for the Jags and their beleaguered coach, are they better than most of us think, or are they in for a letdown after an upset over a premier opponent?
Bills at Jets Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 1 PM ET
ATS & Totals Odds:
Buffalo Bills -12 (-110) vs. New York Jets +12 (-110)
Over 47.5 Points (-110) / Under 47.5 Points (-110)
The Plays: JETS +12 (-110) and OVER 47.5 POINTS (-110)
So now we have the big, bad Bills, having been embarrassed by the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 9-6 score, and the hapless Jets, who can keep people out of their own end zone. Easy, right?
Well, perhaps it’s a bit more involved than that. We were waiting to see who Gang Green was going to name as their starting quarterback, and as it turns out, Mike White is well enough to play after suffering a contusion in his right forearm vs. the Colts.
That’s the right call, although this quarterback thing is altogether confusing. Zach Wilson could play if they really needed him to, but who NEEDS him to. Josh Johnson relieved White against Indy and had 317 passing yards and three TD’s. And Joe Flacco must be standing there saying, “Hey, remember me?”
The fact is, White had that 400-yard game against Cincinnati and had 97 yards in the first quarter against the Colts when he went down with his injury. Clearly the Jets move the ball better with him than the rookie. And Johnson’s effort is a signal that this team can do something in “garbage time.”
The Jets have also allowed 54, 31 and 45 points in the last three games. So they may have trouble keeping pace with Buffalo, although the Bills are overvalued here on the expected “bounceback.” Either way, we’re expecting points to be scored.
Jaguars at Colts Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Indianapolis Colts -10.5 (-105) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 (-115)
The Play: COLTS -10.5 (-105)
I wonder how good Urban Meyer is at helping his team get over the shock of beating one of the better teams in the NFL. The Jags held Buffalo to just 301 yards, and Josh Allen not only threw for just 4.9 yards an attempt, but he had to endure four sacks the humiliation of being intercepted by the OTHER Josh Allen, who plays for Jacksonville.
But let’s not forget that the Jaguars generated only 218 yards themselves, and that even though they aren’t sitting too badly on the stop end with a third-best 3.8 yards per carry allowed, they are running into a team coming into its own offensively behind Jonathan Taylor, who is currently in the driver’s seat to win the NFL rushing title with the injury to Derrick Henry. Taylor ate up the Jets last week, and must feel he’s back at Wisconsin with a robust average of 5.9 yards per attempt.
Having Quenton Nelson back at guard has also been a difference-maker for Indianapolis, and this success with the run has allowed Carson Wentz to function pretty well (17 TD’s, just three INT’s). It would be nice for them if they got TY Hilton out of concussion protocol, but it’s not an absolute necessity.
Eagles at Broncos Parlay Betting
Eagles vs. Broncos Predictions
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 4:25 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 45.5 Points (-110) / Under 45.5 Points (-110)
The Play: UNDER 45.5 POINTS (-110)
Even without Miles Sanders, the Eagles have chosen to go heavy with the ground game. And you know it’s intentional – can you believe that over the last two games, they have run the ball 72% of the time? That’s unheard of in today’s NFL.
Maybe head coach Nick Sirianni has lost some trust in Jalen Hurts. But they had a romp over Detroit and got within a whisker of beating the Chargers using this.
Denver also showed signs of relying more on the run last week against Dallas, rolling for 190 yards in 41 attempts. Neither of these teams is all that horrible against the run, but Denver coach Vic Fangio is sure enough going to try and make the Eagles do what they DON’T want to do.
That being said, I’m still looking for some clock to get killed.
Vikings at Chargers Parlay Betting
Vikings vs. Chargers Predictions
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 4:05 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 53 Points (-110) / Under 53 Points (-110)
The Play: OVER 53 POINTS (-110)
As we know with Brandon Staley’s defenses, they are going to play back with the safeties to prevent explosive plays, which won’t afford them as much help to defend the run. Well, Kirk Cousins can throw underneath just fine, as his average of 6.8 Intended Air Yards (30th in NFL) would attest.
And the Chargers could have a real headache dealing with Dalvin Cook from there. The Los Angeles secondary is banged-up as well. And Minnesota’s pass rush will have its own share of problems with Justin Herbert, who can get rid of the ball in a hurry. I think we’ve got potential “shootout” conditions here.
