2025 Independent Spirit Awards Odds and Predictions 

The Hollywood film award circuit is drawing to a close. Next month the Oscars and Razzies will fire off, and after that, we’ll be looking to next year.

Before that happens, though, a few more big awards shows will have their day in the sun. One is the 2025 Independent Spirit Awards, which admittedly get overshadowed, but still offer prestigious trophies that anyone in cinema would be happy to have.

You’re probably not up for an ward, of course, so you’re surely here to take advantage of the latest Independent Spirit Awards odds. I’ve got your back, as I’ll break down the entertainment betting markets available for this event, and offer my predicted winners.

What Are The Independent Spirit Awards?

Here’s to the little guys. The Independent Spirit Awards try to prop up the best performances in independent film and television.

When Are the Independent Spirit Awards?

The 40th Independent Spirit Awards will take place on February 22nd, of 2025. The event will be presented by Film Independent and will take place at the Santa Monica Pier in Santa Monica, California.

American comedian Aidy Bryant will host the event for the second year in a row. Nominations for the Independent Spirit Awards went out via YouTube on December 4th, 2024, with Anora tying for the lead with five total nods.

How To Watch The Independent Spirit Awards?

The 2025 Independent Spirit Awards will be streamed live on YouTube via the IMDB and Film Independent channels.

Independent Spirit Awards Odds

Check out the latest Independent Spirit Awards odds, courtesy of the top online betting sites:

There are not a ton of betting markets available for the 2025 Independent Spirit Awards, and the favorites are running the roost. It’s pretty likely the top betting favorites get the nod, but bettors could eye some intriguing pivots or attack a couple of awards with competitive pricing.

You can roll with my Independent Spirit Awards predictions, or read on for a little more analysis as to why I like each pick. Want even more guidance on your online betting journey? Sign up for a free trial of our sports betting handicapping service.

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Independent Spirit Awards Predictions

Check out our predictions for the 40^th Independent Spirit Awards:

Best Feature Film

• Anora (-1000)
• The Substance (+150)
• Nickel Boys (+400)
• Sing Sing (+900)
• I Saw the TV Glow (+1000)

Smaller awards shows can give recognition to acting talent or productions that simply won’t get it anywhere else. This is especially something to consider when this event was originally constructed to possibly sway final Oscars voting.

By the looks of it, though, there isn’t much use betting against Anora. It’s a massive favorite, and with The Brutalist dominating everywhere else, it does make sense for it to get its due here at the IS Awards.

Anora was a frontrunner for the Oscars during the summer, but over time it lost steam. It then fell to The Brutalist at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, so it will be nice for it to get a tip of the cap for a change.

That said, you aren’t betting big money on an option with -1000 odds. The payoff is remarkably weak, so the reward simply is not worth the risk. That does make The Substance stand out as a pretty appealing contender, while Nickel Boys and Sing Sing are highly praised flicks that deserve their day in the sun as well.

If you’re looking for the straight up winner, however, it’s Anora.

Bet: Anora (-1000)

Best International Film

• All We Imagine As Light (-500)
• Hard Truths (+200)
• Flow (+500)
• Green Border (+600)
• Black Dog (+600)

This is an interesting category due to potential betting value. All We Imagine As Light is the obvious favorite, however, as it garnered a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Payal Kapadia wrote and directed this magnificent film, and it’d be a shock to see it upset.

Of course, Flow did win for best animated movie at the Golden Globes, and Hard Truths was nominated for best british film at the BAFTAs. It also picked up a win for Marianne Jean-Baptiste at the British Independent Film Awards and won for best original screenplay at the National Board of Review awards.

I’d stick with the favorite here, but the value is nicely spread out across some viable threats. If I were to go against the grain, Hard Truths would be the pick.

Bet: All We Imagine As Light (-500)

Best Lead Performance

• Demic Moore (-125)
• Mikey Madison (-105)
• Colman Domingo (+300)
• Amy Adams (+800)
• Justice Smith (+2000)
• Ryan Destiny (+2500)
• June Squibb (+2500)
• Keith Kupferer (+2800)
• Sebastian Stan (+3000)

Bettors are getting insane value up top when looking at the best lead performance odds at the 2025 Independent Spirit Awards. Why? Because Demi Moore has been cleaning house at the major awards shows, and she’s coming in at just -125.

Does that feel a bit trappy? Kind of. If you’re with me there, then a really fun pivot could be Mikey Madison, who started out as the obvious threat back in the summer. She is still standing tall as a viable contender, while it’s worth wondering if she could get the nod to close the gap going into the Oscars.

Madison has racked up wins at a litany of smaller events, as has earned nominations at every major awards show. 

This particular acting award combines men and women, and it’s really highlighting the elite female acting talent. I tend to agree with the pricing here, so it’s down to Demi vs. Mikey. Considering Moore has gotten the hardware at every other stop that counts – and feels like a lock to win her first Oscar – I like pivoting to Madison at the Independent Spirit Awards.

Bet: Mikey Madison (-105)

Best Documentary

• No Other Land (-800)
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (+125)
• Hummingbirds (+1000)
• Patrice The Movie (+1000)
• Gaucho Gaucho (+1200)

This is No Other Land’s award to lose. Could this be another spot where the Independent Spirit Awards go out of their way to shine a light on an overlooked candidate? Sure, but given the -800 odds and the fact that No Other Land flat out is this year’s best documentary, I’m not forcing this one.

Yes, there is value to be had with the other options, but based on odds, there is only one legit challenger. No Other Land has racked up 62 wins and is the likely Oscars winner for this same category, though, so I wont be going against it.

Bet: No Other Land (-800)

Someone to Watch Award

• Nicholas Colia (-300)
• Sarah Friedland (+300)
• Pham Thien An (+300)

Nicholas Colia is a big name to watch, indeed. His film Griffin in Summer scored nine wins, with the big one coming at the 2024 Tribeca Film Festival, where it won three different trophies.

Given the critical acclaim of his film (93% rating on Rotten Tomatoes), he does feel like a fine bet at his -300 odds. This might be another spot where I don’t mind going against the top betting favorite, of course, especially since the two directors he’s up against have better rated flicks.

Sarah Friedland offers way more upside in what could be a volatile betting market, especially when you consider Familiar Touch stands in with a stellar 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s a brutal and relatable story with brilliant acting performances and impeccable direction – all of which combined to get it a win for best debut film at the 2024 Venice Film Festival.

Sarah Friendland is someone to watch, and I love her +300 odds for this category.

Bet: Sarah Friedland (+300)

Independent Spirit Awards 2024