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On Sunday, February 23, NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400. This marks the second race of the 2025 Cup Series season and the first of two annual trips to Atlanta.

Last weekend, William Byron outlasted the field, the rain and survived the wrecks to win the Daytona 500 for the second year in a row. The impressive feat for Byron kicks off a season where some pundits, including myself, believe he’s a true Cup Series Championship contender.

Despite Byron’s season-starting success, he’s only the third odds-on favorite for this weekend’s Atlanta NASCAR race. Ryan Blaney, who sits on top of the Driver Standings, is the betting favorite to win the Ambetter Health 400.

Byron and Blaney are also joined in the Top 5 by the defending Cup Series champ Joey Logano, two-time champ Kyle Busch, and Austin Cindric.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Ambetter Health 400 odds and make our NASCAR picks for this weekend’s Atlanta NASCAR race.

Ambetter Health 400 Race Profile

The Atlanta Motor Speedway (AMS) has been part of NASCAR’s Cup Series circuit since 1960. From that inaugural year until 2010, the track held two races each season. In 2021, NASCAR decided to give back a second race to Atlanta but have moved it around the calendar over the last few seasons.

The AMS is a quad-oval speedway with turns that feature 28 degrees in banking, straights with 5 degrees in banking and a lap length of 1.54 miles. This current configuration was implemented in 2022. Prior to that, the banking and the width of the racing surface were less.

Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400 miles
• Total Laps: 260 laps
• Stage 1: 60 laps
• Stage 2: 60 laps
• Final Stage: 100 laps

The Ambetter Health 400 can be seen on FOX beginning at 3pm ET.

Previous Ambetter Health 400 Winners

“The King” Richard Petty is tied with Dale Earnhardt Sr., Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson for the most Ambetter Health 400 victories at four apiece. Among the full-time active Cup Series drivers, Brad Keselowski leads the field with two wins in this race.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Daniel Suarez
• 2023: Joey Logano
• 2022: William Byron
• 2021: Ryan Blaney
• 2020: Kevin Harvick
• 2019: Brad Keselowski
• 2018: Kevin Harvick
• 2017: Brad Keselowski
• 2016: Jimmie Johnson
• 2015: Jimmie Johnson

Ambetter Health 400 Odds

Check out the latest Ambetter Health 400 odds:

Ambetter Health 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Ambetter Health 400:

Ryan Blaney +800 

• Driver Standings: 1
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 1

Ryan Blaney finished 7^th at Daytona last weekend, led 23 laps and also took home a Stage win. This puts him on top of the Driver Standings as wee head into Atlanta on Sunday.

In 13 Atlanta starts, Blaney has one win, six Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and has led laps in six consecutive races at this track. The #12 car leads the field with a 10.0 average finish and has solid numbers over the last few years at AMS.

Blaney won this race in 2021 and has put together a streak of six Top 9 finishes over the next seven appearances. He also has three Top 5s in the last four trips to Atlanta.

Last year, the 2023 Cup Series Champ finished second in this race and third in the fall Atlanta NASCAR race. His averages are head-and-shoulders above the pack.

I like for Blaney to be a Top 10 car with a strong chance of winning this NASCAR Atlanta race on Sunday.

Joey Logano +900

• Driver Standings: 16
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

Blaney’s teammate Joey Logano sits 16^th in the standings and ended up with some bad luck in the final laps of Daytona last weekend. However, it was mostly his fault as he tried to split two cars and ended up causing a massive wreck in the final laps of the race.

Fortunately for Logano, he heads to Atlanta where the reigning Cup Series champ has had some success at over the last few years.

For his career, Logano has two wins, four Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 15.9 average finish in 22 Atlanta starts. Now, those numbers aren’t great.

However, Logano has won two of the last four Atlanta races including this event in 2023, and the fall Playoff race last season.

So, he’s highly capable of bouncing back from a disappointing Daytona to snag the checkered flag on Sunday. I put Blaney ahead of Logano in terms of favorites for the Ambetter Health 400. With that said, I do believe Logano is a Top 10 car with a race-winning ceiling.

William Byron +1200

• Driver Standings: 2
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 1

The back-to-back Daytona 500 winner is riding high to start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season. Prior to the start of the new year, I picked William Byron to be a real contender for the Cup Series Championship this season.

In 11 AMS starts, Byron has two wins, two Top 5s, four Top 10s, and a 16.9 average finish. Byron has proven to be one of the top drivers at speedways of 1.5 miles or longer. He won this race in 2022, and also won the summer Atlanta race in 2023. Last year, he had a 13.0 average finish.

I like for Byron to be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling. He’s going to need some luck to beat out some of the other favorites and contenders that we identify further below.

Kyle Busch +1200

• Driver Standings: 33
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

One of the drivers collected in Logano’s Daytona 500 wreck last weekend was Kyle Busch. The veteran, who has had issues with Logano in the past, was very candid about putting the blame on the #22 car. Busch was racing well and in contention for a win before getting wiped out.

Fortunately for the #8 car, Atlanta has been a strong track for him. In 30 starts, which is the most among active drivers, Busch has two wins, 10 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and a 13.0 average finish. He’s put together four straight Top 10 finishes at AMS, including two Top 5s over that span.

If we take out his crash result for the 2022 Ambetter Health 400 race, then Busch has four consecutive Top 10s in this race. He was third last year, which was a down season for “Rowdy”.

I like for Busch to put in a strong performance this weekend. He should be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling.

Austin Cindric +1200

• Driver Standings: 3
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 1

Currently, Austin Cindric sits third in the Standings after finishing 8^th at Daytona last weekend. He led 59 laps, which were the most among the field but couldn’t get back to the front of the lines before the race ended.

After his first two races in Atlanta, Cindric has been on a roll. He’s put together five consecutive Top 12 finishes including two Top 5s and three Top 10s. He’s also led laps in all five of those races.

Cindric was 4^th in this race last year and 10^th in the fall Playoff race. His 7.0 average finish for 2024 NASCAR Atlanta races is one of the best in the field.

I think Cindric continues his streak of Top 12 finishes and I wouldn’t be surprised if he snagged another Top 5 result.  

Chase Elliott +1400

• Driver Standings: 10
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

Chase Elliott sits 10^th in the driver standings after leading two laps and finishing 15^th in the Daytona 500 last weekend. I actually like his chances in Atlanta more than the oddsmakers do.

In 12 Atlanta starts, Elliott has one win, two Top 5s, and eight Top 10s. Over the last six Atlanta races, he has one win, one Top 5, four Top 10s, and six Top 15s.

Elliott has been highly consistent at AMS for most of his Cup Series career. I like for the #9 car to challenge for the victory this weekend and finish no worse than 8^th.

The Best Amber Health 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Ambetter Health 400 based on their previous success at the Atlanta Motor Speedway:

Kyle Larson +1800

• Driver Standings: 24
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

Kyle Larson completed the Daytona 500 last weekend, but he finished 20^th and currently sits 24^th in the standings. This isn’t a surprise because Larson struggles at the super speedways.

Larson also struggles in Atlanta as well. In fact, he has five DNFs in the last six Atlanta races including four in a row.

I don’t think that Larson offers value with his race-winning odds because he’s struggled mightily in Atlanta. However, his +100 odds to finish in the Top 10 does have value.

Anytime you can get one of the sport’s best drivers at plus-odds, you have to seriously consider taking a flier. That’s what I’m doing with Larson this weekend.

Christopher Bell +1800

• Driver Standings: 26
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

Like Larson, Christopher Bell also comes into this race sitting outside of the Top 20 in the standings following a poor performance at Daytona last Sunday.

However, unlike Larson, Bell has had more success at AMS. In nine starts, he has two Top 5s and three Top 10s. Additionally, Bell was third in this race for 2023, and 4^th in last year’s Atlanta playoff race. So, that’s two Top 5 finishes in the last four starts.

Bell also has +100 odds for a Top 10 finish, which offer more value than Larson’s. I think this his Top 10 prop bet is one of the best under the radar wagers for the Ambetter Health 400.

The Top Ambetter Health 400 Longshot

Erik Jones (+4000) enters this weekend’s race in 7^th place for the Driver Standings. In 12 Atlanta starts, Jones has one Top 5, three Top 10s, and a 16.3 average finish which is the 8^th best among full-time Cup Series drivers.

He’s also never scored a DNF in Atlanta and does have two Top 10s in the last five races at this track. Last year was a down year for Jones. But, when you look at 2022 and 2023, when he had a better car, Jones finished with a 9.0 and a 9.5 average finish in those seasons for NASCAR Atlanta races.

Jones is my top longshot bet for this weekend and I also think a small flier on his Top 10 finishing odds (+220) is also warranted.

NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Predictions

 As I always say, Talladega and Daytona are crapshoots when trying to pick winners. While Atlanta is easier than those super speedways, it’s only by a car length. This track has seen its fair share of wrecks in the spring Atlanta race, which will take place this Sunday.

Last year, the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 race saw 10 cautions and eight cars crash out of the race. That’s still a big number when compared to other tracks.

With that said, I like for Blaney, Logano, Elliott, and Byron or Cindric and Busch to be my Top 5 drivers this weekend. In fact, I think all of those drivers can crack the Top 10 with ease.

Logano, Elliott, and Byron have won five of the last six Atlanta races, so it’s hard to ignore that success. Blaney last won in 2021, which makes it six of the last eight Atlanta races.

Like I said last week, I won’t pick Kyle Busch to win a race until he actually does so. His winless drought is growing and he really struggled last year to contend in most races. Yet, Atlanta was one of those tracks where he performed well at. So, I think he can be a contender this weekend, but I’m not picking him to win.

I think this race comes down to Team Penske vs. Hendrick Motorsports. In other words, Blaney and Logano vs. Elliott and Byron.

I don’t see Byron winning the first two races of the season, so I will eliminate him from this debate. I also don’t see Logano winning three of the last five Atlanta races.

So, my race winner will come down to Blaney and Elliott. It really is hard to ignore Blaney’s success at this track. In fact, it’s downright impressive. As much as I would like to pick Elliott, I can’t ignore what Blaney has done.

Although he didn’t win Daytona last weekend, he’s come out strong to start the season. So, I don’t see any reason, other than bad luck from a crash or mechanical failure, to think that Blaney won’t win.

The 2023 champ has eight Top 9 finishes in the last nine Atlanta races. He won this race in 2021, and finished 2^nd last year. Blaney takes the checkered flag on Sunday.

For more coverage on NASCAR’s Atlanta races, check out our NASCAR Picks This Week as we also break down Xfinity’s Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250 race and Craftsman Truck’s Fr8 208 race.  

Bet: Ryan Blaney (+800)

NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Prop Bets

The following Ambetter Health 400 prop bets are courtesy of various sportsbooks like Bet365:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Atlanta

As mentioned above, I think Elliott will compete for the checkered flag on Sunday. I like his consistency at this track. I also like Busch’s overall success at this track which includes a 50% Top 10 finishing rate.

I think both drivers will crack the Top 7 and at least one of them will finish in the Top 3.

Bet: Busch or Elliott (+170)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Ambetter Health 400

Ryan Blaney is not only my race winner, but he’s also my best bet for a Top 5 finish. We’re getting the odds-on favorite to win this race at plus-odds, which doesn’t happen on a regular basis.

As mentioned above, eight Top 9 finishes in the last nine Atlanta races. He also has six Top 5s over that span. Blaney had a 2.5 average finish in Atlanta last season and a 5.2 average finish over the last five Atlanta races.

Bet: Ryan Blaney (+150)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Ambetter Health 400

Kyle Busch is my top choice to finish in the Top 10. Although I refuse to pick him as a race winner until he actually wins one, I can definitely ride with Rowdy on a Top 10 finish.

Busch has the third best average finish (13.0) among the field. And, that’s with the most starts of 30 at this track. However, Busch has 15 Top 10s in those 30 appearances including four in a row.

In fact, In the last 11 Atlanta races, Busch has five Top 5s and nine Top 10s. He was 3^rd in this race last year. Slam this bet hard as Busch will score another Top 10 result in Atlanta.

Bet: Kyle Busch (-160)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+140)
• Ford (+150)
• Toyota (+300)

Chevrolet and Ford have combined to win 47 of 60 spring Atlanta races. More recently, Ford has six and Chevy has five wins in the last 11 Ambetter Health 400 races.

If we’re looking at the stats for both Atlanta races, Chevy and Ford have won every Atlanta race dating back to the fall of 2013. That’s a span of 15 Atlanta races. Over that time, Ford has seven wins and Chevy has eight.

I picked a Ford driver to win on Sunday in Ryan Blaney, but I think this is a good opportunity to hedge your bet by taking Chevy. It’s a toss-up between the two.

Bet: Chevrolet (+140)

Team of Race Winner

• Team Penske (+275)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+350)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+450)
• RFK Racing (+750)
• Trackhouse Racing (+900)
• 23XL Racing (+1000)
• Richard Childress Racing (+1000)
• Spire Motorsports (+2000)
• Front Row Motorsports (+2000)

As mentioned above, I think this race will come down to Team Penske vs. Hendrick Motorsports. These two teams have won six of the last eight Atlanta races.

I picked Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney to win. So, I’m going to hedge my bet by taking Hendrick Motorsports as I do think both Elliott and Byron are top contenders this weekend.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+350)

Winning Car Number

• Over 18.5 (-110)
• Under 18.5 (-110)

Last week at Daytona, I took Under 19.5 and many of the cars that I thought would do well. Unfortunately, most of those cars were caught up in late-lap crashes. And those crashes were caused vy cars over 19.5. I think it was a conspiracy.

Anyhow, I’m going back to the Under well one more time. And, here’s why:

Under 18.5 cars:  Cindric (2), Dillon (3), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11), Blaney (12), and Buescher (17).

Of these cars, Keselowski, Busch, Elliott, Hamlin and Blaney have all won at this track. Furthermore, the Under has won five of the last eight Ambetter Health 400 races. Going back further, the Under has won 10 of the last 16 Ambetter Health 400 races.  

Bet: Under 18.5 (-110)