Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils Picks and Predictions February 22nd 2025

No. 3 Duke Rolls Into MSG as Illinois Battles Injuries & Adversity

What was once billed as a marquee matchup under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden has taken on a new narrative. No. 3 Duke enters Saturday night’s showdown against Illinois riding high, while the Illini arrive limping—both literally and figuratively—after a brutal stretch of injuries, illnesses, and inconsistency.

For Illinois head coach Brad Underwood, this game was supposed to serve as a major March Madness measuring stick. Instead, it might feel more like a survival test against a Duke squad looking every bit like a No. 1 seed in the making.

Illinois Fights Through Injuries and Uncertainty

It’s been a tough stretch for Illinois (17-10), which has dropped seven of its last 12 games. The team has been plagued by injuries and illnesses, making it difficult to establish any rhythm.

“In 38 years, I’ve never seen anything like what’s gone through our team,” Underwood said.

A prime example? Seven-foot sophomore center Tomislav Ivisic has barely been able to stay on the court. He missed time with mononucleosis, then suffered a high ankle sprain on Feb. 5, and most recently battled a team-wide flu outbreak. His latest outing, a 21-point loss at No. 11 Wisconsin, saw him limited to just 21 minutes.

Making matters worse, freshman power forward Morez Johnson Jr. broke his wrist last weekend against Michigan State after landing awkwardly while blocking a shot. That leaves Illinois even thinner in the frontcourt.

Yet, despite the setbacks, Underwood remains defiant.

“We don’t know who we have from day to day,” he said. “But we’ll be fine. Eighteen-year-olds gotta grow up and deal with some adversity. It’s David playing Goliath in the next one, and we’ll show up and we’re gonna fight.”

If the Illini are going to compete, they’ll need big performances from freshman point guard Kasparas Jakucionis and wing Will Riley, both of whom have NBA lottery pick potential. Jakucionis, however, has struggled lately, turning the ball over seven times with no assists in his last game. Riley, on the other hand, has been a bright spot, scoring in double figures in seven straight games while averaging 15.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists over his last five.

Duke’s Freshman Stars Keep Rolling

On the other side, Duke (23-3) is cruising. The Blue Devils are locked in on securing a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament and have shown no signs of slowing down.

Potential National Player of the Year Cooper Flagg continues to dominate, fresh off grabbing a career-high 14 rebounds in Duke’s 80-62 rout of Virginia on Monday. The freshman phenom leads a stacked group of NBA-ready talent, including Kon Knueppel (13.2 ppg) and 7-foot-2 Khaman Malauch (8.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

If there’s a weakness for Duke, it could be depth. Syracuse transfer Maliq Brown, a key defensive presence, dislocated his shoulder against Virginia and won’t play against Illinois. That means freshman Patrick Ngongba will likely step into a bigger role in Duke’s already freshman-heavy rotation.

Fortunately for the Blue Devils, their depth has been a strength all season. Rookie guard Isaiah Evans torched Virginia with five three-pointers in just 22 minutes, finishing with 17 points—one shy of his career-high.

“I think we’re just a team that can exploit a lot of different things that a defense gives us,” Evans said. “Just taking what the defense gives you and trusting your teammates because we’re all really good players.”

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The Big Picture: Can Illinois Pull Off an Upset?

On paper, this matchup looks lopsided. Duke is surging, while Illinois is dealing with a depleted lineup and inconsistent play. However, the Illini aren’t waving the white flag just yet.

They’ll need to lean on their young stars, get a big game from their backcourt, and hope their frontcourt can hold its own against Duke’s size. If they can slow down Flagg and Knueppel while finding offensive rhythm, they might just have a puncher’s chance.

Still, the odds favor Duke to take care of business under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden.