UFC Fight Night 253 Odds and Predictions

The UFC Fight Night 253 odds are live, which means you can bet on this week’s main event between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev right now. The action goes down in Las Vegas at the UFC APEX, with the Prelims firing off at 3:00 pm EST.

We were originally supposed to get Kape vs. Brandon Royval, but in a lot of ways, this matchup is better. If you’re eager to place some bets, roll with my UFC picks for Saturday’s Fight Night event.

My UFC Fight Night 252 picks were on point, even though it’s arguable that Henry Cejudo got robbed. I whiffed on the main event, which dropped me to a less than ideal 2-3 record on the main card.

I made up for that during the Prelims, of course, as I went 4-2 (6-5 overall). I’d been hot on the main cards for a while, and I’ll never apologize for a winning record. Let’s get back to a more profitable mark, though, and break down this exciting UFC event.

UFC Fight Night 253 Odds

Take a look at the latest betting odds for UFC FN 253 that you can find at online MMA betting sites.

This is admittedly not the most dazzling main card when looking back at UFC history. The main event could easily underwhelm, too. That said, it’s tightly contested, as just one favorite has a price over -250.

This could be another fun night filled with upsets, and we should have a few bangers to get excited about yet, too. I personally am seeing some solid value worth attacking at the top MMA sportsbooks, and it’ll be up to you to decide if you agree with me or not.

Like always, you can roll with all of my UFC Fight Night 253 betting picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial to get a little extra help with his card from the best handicappers.

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UFC Fight Night 253 Main Card Predictions

The UFC FN 253 main card starts at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Manel Kape (-230) vs. Asu Almabayev (+195)

We could get a really good main event at UFC FN 253, as Manel Kape is an impressive finisher (12 KOs) and 17 of his 20 wins have seen him ending things early.

Kape (20-7) remains as violent and as dangerous as ever at age 31, as he is coming off of a nice TKO win over Bruno Silva last December. He did drop a Decision against Muhammad Mokaev last July, but is otherwise on a tear, going 4-1 over his last five.

Starboy has a three-inch reach edge in his matchup, and doubles up his opponent in significant strikes. Asu Amabayes (21-2) is certainly a tough out, though, as the 31-year old is a submission guru (9 career submission wins) and has been very impressive so far in the UFC.

Asu is 4-0 under the UFC banner and has not lost since 2017. That said, Kape has good takedown defense and he’s the better striker. I think Asu is the sexy pick here, but Kape should find a way to get the win.

A Decision victory is the likely path, but as we know, he has the ability to end this early with his fists.

Bet: Manel Kape (-230)

Julian Marquez (-165) vs. Cody Brundage (+145)

Cody Brundage (10-6) is a mild underdog even though he is four years younger than his opponent and has exhibited superior takedown offense. He does lose two inches in height, however, while Julian Marquez (9-5) also grades out as the far more lethal striker.

Marquez has six knockouts to his name, but he’s also been KO’d three times and comes in with terrible form, losing each of his last three bouts. Brundage is the better wrestler in this one, and while the striking numbers back Marquez, Brundage is still a powerful striker.

Both fighters are vulnerable to KOs and I don’t think this one gets to a Decision. It’s an arguable toss-up, and when that’s the case, I prefer to side with the underdog. It doesn’t feel amazing, but Brundage at +145 looks like a viable upset pick going into UFC Fight Night 253.

Bet: Cody Brundage (+145)

Esteban Ribovics (-250) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+210)

We get a bigger favorite when Esteban Ribovics (14-1) faces off against Nasrat Haqparast (17-5), as Ribovics has just one loss to his name and he’s never been finished.

I immediately lean toward El Gringo, as he has nice finishing ability (12 career wins via stoppage), is just 28, and is in solid form. He’s a solid 3-1 inside the UFC so far and has won three straight, while his KO of Terrance McKinney last May is a nice reminder of how dangerous he can be.

Haqparast does own a three-inch reach edge in this one, but Ribovics is the better striker and is more likely to win if this fight gets to the ground. Nasrat has zero submission wins to his name, so even though I like the recent form (four straight wins) and he’s just as explosive (10 KOs), I’m leaning toward the more dynamic fighter.

Bet: Esteban Ribovics (-250)

Mario Pinto (-370) vs. Austen Lane (+305)

The 26-year old Mario Pinto (9-0) will put his unblemished MMA record on the line this weekend, as he prepares to go to war with the more experienced Austen Lane (13-5).

Lane is a big underdog in this spot, but he does have a one-inch reach advantage and he knows how to finish fights (11 KOs). That said, he has a soft chin (5 career knockout losses) and his fights typically do not go the distance.

Pinto is far younger in this one, he’s a more refined striker, and he can also mix it up with his kicks. The wrestling edge also lies with him. The only real issue with him is his lack of high level competition, but Lane is a gate keeper at best at this stage of his career.

This one is likely ending with a knockout, though. Lane’s chin has become quite soft and Pinto is a rising heavyweight prospect. The math does itself.

Bet: Mario Pinto (-370)

William Gomis (-210) vs. Hyder Amil (+180)

Another reasonably sized betting favorite is William Gomis (14-2), who figures to have the edge across the board when he takes on Hyder Amil (10-0).

A lot of bettors will be eager to side with Amil at his +180 price, as he’ll be an undefeated underdog. I understand the intrigue, as the 34-year old averages 6.31 significant strikes per minute and is a very accurate striker.

That has led to six KO wins, with two of them coming in his first two fights under the UFC banner. I definitely don’t feel amazing betting against him here, but Gomis is seven years younger, also quite dangerous (7 KOs), and owns a three-inch reach advantage in this one.

It’s worth noting that neither of these guys have ever been knocked out, and they also aren’t likely to win via submission. I think a knockout is still in play, but I’d prefer to bet on Gomis winning via Decision. His size, length, and striking should allow him to keep Amil at bay.

Bet: William Gomis (-210)

Danny Barlow (-300) vs. Sam Patterson (+250)

To wrap up the UFC Fight Night 253 main card, we have Danny Barlow (9-0) looking to protect his perfect record against Sam Patterson (12-2-1).

Barlow is a pretty big favorite here, as he has a one-inch reach edge and grades out as the far more lethal striker. Barlow has five career KO wins to his name, and he TKO’d Josh Quinlan in his official debut in February of 2024.

Patterson is an interesting test, as he’s a more diverse fighter and can be a real handful on the mat (7 submissions). He’s a bit vulnerable to big power, however (2 KO losses), which isn’t something you love to hear as he runs into Barlow.

This one is a total contrast of styles, as Patterson will want to get this thing on the ground, and Barlow for sure will not. Patterson is live for the upset if you think he can take Barlow down, but I doubt he can.

Bet: Danny Barlow (-300)

UFC Fight Night 253 Preliminary Card Predictions

Catch the UFC Fight Night 253 Prelims at 3:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Chepe Mariscal (-500) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+375)

We have a massive favorite in Chepe Mariscal, as the 32-year old comes in white hot, having won each of his last seven bouts. That includes a 4-0 run inside the UFC, even though his power (7 KOs) hasn’t yet translated to any knockouts.

Mariscal is three years older than his opponent and he gives up three inches in reach, but he is the natural aggressor here. He offers superior striking and power, and he also has the upper hand on the mat.

Chepe is going to look to take this one to the ground and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t get his way. It’s possible Ramos (7 submissions) could use his takedown aggressiveness against him, but I doubt it.

Bet: Chepe Mariscal (-500)

John Castaneda (-230) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+195)

We have a battle of two MMA veterans, as John Castaneda (21-7) hopes to take out the aging Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6).

DSA has more experience, but this one doesn’t grade out very well for him. Castaneda is six years younger, has almost a three-inch reach advantage, and is the better striker and takedown artist.

Castaneda did drop a Decision in his last fight, but in a solid 4-2 over his last six fights. He knows how to end fights early and brings nice versatility to the table, but he can be had, as evidenced by a KO loss back in 2022.

Douglas Silva de Andrade offers solid upside as the underdog, especially since he can end this fight quickly (20 KO wins). However, we haven’t seen that on display in a while, as he’s just 1-2 over his last three fights and hasn’t finished anyone since 2022.

All that said, I am going out on a limb here. The power edge resides with de Andrade, so if he can stay in the fight and wait for his opportunity, I think he can score a KO. On the flip side, he is not an easy guy to take out (Petyr Yan is the only person to knock him out), so I don’t even hate his chances to edge out a Decision win.

Take the value with Douglas Silva de Andrade.

Bet: Douglas Silva de Andrade (+195)

JJ Aldrich (-195) vs. Andrea Lee (+170)

One of only two UFC Fight Night 253 bouts currently scheduled featuring women will see JJ Aldrich (13-7) battle Andre Lee (13-10). The top UFC betting sites peg Aldrich as the likely winner, and it does make sense, as she’s four years younger and has taken on less damage in her career.

Aldrich is a Decision maestro. She has zero career submissions and she is not a great bet to get the KO, but she inflicts damage and outlasts her opponents fairly regularly. Her recent form isn’t amazing, of course, as she lost to Veronica Hardy in her last fight and is just 2-3 over her last five fights.

Andre Lee is an interesting underdog here. Not only is she not a major risk to get finished, but she’s the way more versatile fighter in this showdown. Lee has 10 losses and is riding a disgusting five-fight skid, but she’s falling to some big names.

I’m sorry, but losing to Montana De La Rosa, Miranda Maverick, and Maycee Barber in recent fights isn’t anything to feel bad about. To be frank, beyond the losing streak, I’m not entirely sure why the odds favor the middling Aldrich.

Aim high with the battle tested Lee, who should end her drought this weekend.

Bet: Andrea Lee (+170)

Danny Silva (-180) vs. Lucas Almeida (+155)

Danny Silva (9-1) will hope to avoid his second career loss at UFC FN 253, when he faces Lucas Almeida (15-3).

Silva is the favorite thanks to being six years younger and much deadlier with his fists. His fights have largely been easy to project, as he’s either knocking you out, or the fight is going to a Decision. That’s what happened in his UFC debut, but he can inflict a ton of damage and I like his chances at a knockout here.

Almeida got back on track with a win over Timothy Cuamba last June, but he’s still just 1-2 over his last three fights. I’m willing to overlook his recent record and age due to his superior versatility here. He’s also historically been able to eat punches pretty well, while unlike Silva, he can end this fight via submission or with his fists.

I don’t mind chasing the value here.

Bet: Lucas Almeida (+155)

Luanna Carolina (-135) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+115)

The other bout on this card featuring females has Luanna Carolina (11-4) as a slight favorite over Montana De La Rosa (13-9-1).

De La Rosa is more experienced and one year younger, but she does lose an inch in reach here and Carolina is the more impressive striker (4.81 significant strikes landed per minute and 59% striking accuracy).

Carolina isn’t overly imposing, but she does offer finishing ability and she’s in good form with wins in each of her last three fights. De La Rosa’s best path to a win is getting this thing to the ground and working to a submission (8 submissions).

I actually like her chances, seeing as her last three losses have either gone the distance or saw her submitted. That really isn’t the likely outcome for Carolina, so if De La Rosa can establish control, she could be a nice value bet.

Bet: Montana De La Rosa (+115)

Ramazan Temirov (-135) vs. Charles Johnson (+115)

Lastly, we have Ramazan Temirov (18-2-1) favored to take out Charles Johnson (17-6). Temirov is six years younger, but loses a ton of inches in reach (7!) and five inches in height, so we definitely need to be wary of an upset here.

The pricing isn’t egregious, either, so the risk is already baked in. Temirov is still the nastier fighter, as he’s a dangerous striker (11 KOs) and hasn’t lost since 2019. He will be fighting in the UFC for just the second time, following an impressive TKO win over C.J. Vergara.

On the other side, Johnson is a seasoned pro that has a major size and reach edge. That could help him keep Temirov at bay, plus he’s a bit more versatile and has yet to be finished so far in his career. He’s also on fire right now, winning each of his last four fights.

I think Johnson is a respectable underdog play here, as a lot projects to go his way. That said, Temirov is the more enticing prospect and he offers more upside in terms of raw talent and finishing ability.

Bet: Ramazan Temirov (-135)

UFC Fight Night 253 Fight Card