Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles Picks and Predictions March 4th 2025

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Florida State Aims to Fix Rebounding Woes Against Virginia

With the ACC Tournament just around the corner, both Florida State and Virginia are searching for momentum as they wrap up the regular season.

The Seminoles (16-13, 7-11 ACC) travel to Charlottesville on Tuesday to take on the Cavaliers (14-15, 7-11 ACC) in a matchup between two teams trying to break out of recent slumps.

Florida State has lost three straight games, including back-to-back blowout losses to North Carolina and Duke, where their rebounding issues were fully exposed. Virginia, meanwhile, has dropped three of its last four and is looking to avoid its first sub-.500 finish since 2010.

Both teams desperately need a win to boost confidence before tournament play begins.

Florida State’s Rebounding Struggles Must Be Fixed

The Seminoles’ recent struggles have been directly tied to their inability to control the boards.

In their last two losses to North Carolina (96-85) and Duke (100-65), Florida State was dominated on the glass, getting outrebounded 84-53 overall and 34-13 on the offensive end.

That led to 41 second-chance points for their opponents, compared to just 11 for Florida State.

Head coach Leonard Hamilton acknowledged that rebounding has been his team’s “Achilles’ heel” all season, but emphasized that Florida State is still developing due to its reliance on first-year players.

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“There have been very few times in my tenure here at Florida State that we’ve depended on this many first-year guys,” Hamilton said.

Despite the rebounding concerns, the Seminoles still have firepower on offense.

  • Jamir Watkins has been the team’s most consistent scorer, averaging 18.5 points per game, and has scored at least 21 points in three straight games.
  • Jerry Deng has stepped up in recent contests, averaging 14 points per game over the last two outings after previously scoring just 7.0 PPG.
  • Malique Ewin, another key offensive piece, missed the Duke game with a foot injury, and his availability could be a major factor in this matchup.
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Virginia Looking for Consistency on Both Ends

The Cavaliers have struggled to defend the paint in recent games, allowing an average of 44.5 points per game inside over their last four contests.

Their most recent loss, a 71-58 setback against Clemson, saw them blow a halftime lead as Clemson ripped off a 20-2 run in the second half to seize control.

Interim head coach Ron Sanchez pointed to inexperience in the frontcourt as a reason for Virginia’s defensive struggles.

“That’s just experience,” Sanchez said. “We don’t have older guys in there trying to get the job done. … We’ve got to get more of a defensive presence, absolutely, from our big guys on the inside.”

Offensively, Virginia has found some bright spots.

  • Isaac McKneely has been on fire, averaging 19 points per game over the last six contests.
  • Dai Dai Ames has stepped up as well, averaging 15 points per game over the last eight.

While Virginia’s offense is improving, their defensive lapses and lack of rebounding toughness have made them vulnerable—a problem that could be exposed against a Florida State team that thrives on attacking the rim.

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Key Matchups to Watch

  • Florida State’s Interior Scoring vs. Virginia’s Interior Defense – The Seminoles are fourth in the ACC in points in the paint, and with Virginia struggling inside, this could be a key advantage for Florida State.
  • Rebounding Battle – Both teams have struggled in this area recently. If Florida State can win the battle on the boards, they could control the tempo and get second-chance opportunities.
  • McKneely vs. Watkins – Two of the hottest scorers in the ACC will go head-to-head, and whichever player has the better night could swing the game in their team’s favor.
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Who Has the Edge?

Florida State has more overall firepower, but Virginia’s defensive intensity at home could make this a gritty, low-scoring battle.

If Florida State can fix its rebounding issues, they have a strong chance to snap their losing streak and build some confidence heading into the ACC Tournament.

However, if Virginia can tighten up defensively, the Cavaliers could control the tempo and make it a frustrating night for the Seminoles. Will Florida State finally solve its rebounding struggles, or will Virginia’s defense rise to the occasion? Tuesday night’s matchup will be a crucial test for both teams before March Madness begins

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