NFL Week 12 Parlay Picks and Odds

Taking into account some of the uncertainty regarding key players, we’re moving in the direction of these plays for our parlays this week. There are some marquee teams there, as well as the two New York teams, who are not lighting up Broadway.

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Titans at Patriots Parlay Betting

Titans vs. Patriots Pick

Time: Sunday, November 28 – 1 PM ET

ATS Odds: New England Patriots -6.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee Titans +6.5 (-110)

The Play: PATRIOTS -6.5 (-110)

Yes, I know that after Tennessee’s loss to Houston and New England’s current streak, this looks like one of those situations where one team is undervalued and the other is overvalued. Yet the Pats have been streaking for a reason – since Week 7 they have carried the highest grade from the respected site Pro Football Focus on both offense AND defense.

And maybe this game presents a good matchup for the Pats as well. Bill Belichick knows that the Titans’ running game (with enthusiastic but aging Adrian Peterson) isn’t going to stomp all over him the way Derrick Henry might, and, relying on his philosophy of taking away the opposition’s best weapon, he’ll do whatever needs to be done to neutralize AJ Brown (dealing with injured ribs) with Julio Jones on injured reserve.

And the Pats are now the team making its money on the ground. In the last three weeks, New England has run the ball 57.2% of the time, while for Tennessee, it’s just 41.5%.

NFL Odds This Week

Jets at Texans Parlay Betting

Jets vs. Texans Pick

Time: Sunday, November 28 – 1 PM ET

Totals Odds: Over 44.5 Points (-110) / Under 44.5 Points (-110)

The Play: UNDER 44.5 POINTS (-110)

We’re not sure how many teams in NFL history have had four different quarterbacks throw for 250 or more yards in a single game. We’re sure not many, and we’re even more certain that not many – if any -have had those guys do it within the first ten games. And I’ll guess very very few of those teams had only two wins to show for it.

We would presume that the Jets will be going with Zach Wilson here, because he appears to be ready, and they have to develop him. Hey, they started the job; they might as well continue it.

And the growing pains that have produced nine INT’s in 181 attempts will continue as well.

That was a great win for Houston last week, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that they only had 190 yards of total offense, with a ground game that barely got over two yards a pop and a quarterback (Tyrod Taylor) who averaged all of 4.5 yards an attempt. So don’t go getting carried away with those guys, who were gifted with four interceptions thrown by Ryan Tannehill.

The bad news is that if they can intercept Tannehiil four times, what will they do Wilson? Just using the imagination a little bit.

Eagles at Giants Parlay Betting

Eagles vs. Giants Pick

Time: Sunday, November 28 – 1 PM ET

ATS Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110) vs. New York Giants +3.5 (-110)

The Play: EAGLES -3.5 (-110)

The way Joe Judge was communciating after Monday night’s game, you could tell he was upset with the offensive game plan crafted by coordinator Jason Garrett. And I guess we don’t blame him; after all, there’s no excuse for not being able to free up a guy like Kadarius Toney (seven catches, only 40 yards vs. the Bucs) to do some damage.

But think about it – do you think this offense is going to get imaginative from one week to the next?

By contrast, what they have done in Philly is transformational. The Eagles have decided to go heavy with the run, and we say that with a capital “H.” They took a New Orleans team that was yielding a league-leading 3.1 yards a carry and plowed through them for 242 rushing yards. Miles Sanders came back from injury and had 94 of those yards.

This is a team in sync; they have averaged 217.5 on the ground over the last four, and if you projected that over the course of a season, they’d lead the NFL by 61 yards a game. Their O-line is just blowing people off the ball.

NFL Picks This Week

Rams at Packers Parlay Betting

Rams vs. Packers Pick

Time: Sunday, November 28 – 4:25 PM ET

Totals Odds: Over 48 Points (-110) / Under 48 Points (-110)

The Play: UNDER 48 POINTS (-110)

Aaron Rodgers is dealing with turf toe, but that won’t keep him out of this one. He’ll just play through the pain. There’s sticky situation with the Packers’ offensive line, as guard Elgton Jenkins, who made the Pro Bowl last season, is out, and tackle David Bakhtiari, a two-time first-team All-Pro, is not quite ready to return.

These coaching staffs are very familiar with each other. Matt LaFleur was Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator with the Rams before taking the head coaching job in Green Bay, and his D-coordinator, Joe Barry, was McVay’s assistant head coach.

There is no doubt that Matthew Stafford poses more of a downfield threat than does his predecessor, Jared Goff. But after throwing 22 TD passes in his first eight games as a Ram, he’s found the sledding a little tougher, having now been intercepted twice in each of the last two games.

And Barry’s defense is going to be designed to prevent him from going far down the field effectively.

It’s worth noting that the Packers have played seven of their last eight games under the total.