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It’s a short turnaround this week with three games taking place on Thanksgiving Day. The rest of the Week 12 slate takes place Sunday and on Monday night.
Last week, favorites held the edge with an 8-7 ATS advantage. The biggest win by an underdog was probably the one that was least expected. Houston, a 10-point underdog, covered with a 22-13 upset win over Tennessee.
The Colts went to Buffalo and won big, 41-15. Indianapolis was a seven-point underdog. Who will it be this week? Here are the top five NFL Week 12 ATS picks.
Jets vs. Texans Week 12 Spread
These are two of the worst scoring offenses in the league. The Texans are actually dead last while the Jets rank 28th in points per game.
The Jets passing game is solid, but they rank 29th running the ball. Houston isn’t very good in either facet of the game. The Texans are 31 st in passing yards per game and dead last at 32nd in rushing yards.
With no faith in backing either side, there is value on the game total. The Under is 4-1 in Houston’s last five games. The Jets have scored 17 points back-to-back games. Two poor offenses will push this game Under the total.
Best ATS Pick: UNDER 44.5
Panthers vs. Dolphins Week 12 Spread
Sure, Cam Newton is back in Carolina, but he isn’t the reason why the Panthers will beat Miami on Sunday. It’s the return of RB Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey will energize the offense as he has the past two weeks. The Panthers scored 28 points in the three games before McCaffrey came back. Carolina has put up 55 in the two games since his return. The other key is Carolina’s No. 1-ranked pass defense against Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is a mediocre NFL quarterback and will never be anything more. The re-energized Panthers get back in the playoff race with a big win and cover in Miami.
Best ATS Pick: PANTHERS -2
Falcons vs. Jaguars Parlay Betting
Both Jacksonville and Atlanta have just one win in their last four games. Neither side is all that dependable, but there is a common theme.
The Falcons have scored a grand total of three points in their last two games. The Jags are a little better averaging just a little over 10 points per game in their last four.
Neither offense is very good. The Jags rank 31 st in scoring offense while the Falcons are 27th. The lack of weapons on the field will take this total Under.
Best ATS Pick: UNDER 46.5
Rams vs. Packers Week 12 Spread
The Rams have lost two straight and their offense has essentially disappeared. LA managed 16 points against Tennessee and then 10 last week in a loss to San Francisco.
WR Robert Woods is out for the season, but the Rams signed Odell Beckham Jr. He didn’t do much (two catches, 18 yards) in his debut, but he will be counted on to make an impact.
Green Bay has lost two of their last three, but both games were on the road. The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season. At Lambeau Field, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has nine touchdowns and just one interception.
The Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games and 7-0 ATS in the last seven against the Rams. LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four games and 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Lambeau Field.
Best ATS Pick: PACKERS -1
Steelers vs. Bengals Week 12 Spread
The Steelers are coming off a game they let get away in Los Angeles. Now, they face an uphill battle as they attempt to beat Cincy after having lost to the Bengals at home earlier this season.
Pittsburgh may not have T.J. Watt again and, if they don’t, they have to figure out a way to get to Cincy QB Joe Burrow.
The Steelers desperately need a win after tying the Lions two weeks ago. They might not get that victory, but they can keep this close. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Cincinnati can’t be trusted at home. The Bengals are 0-3 ATS in their last three home games.
Best ATS Pick: STEELERS +4.5
