2025 Tirreno-Adriatico Odds, Predictions, How To Watch

On Monday, March 10, one of Italy’s early-season WorldTour races gets underway with the 60^th edition of the Tirreno-Adriatico. Also known as “the Race of the Two Seas,” this year’s event will start in Lido di Camaiore, traverse 1,130km across seven stages, and finish up in San Benedetto del Tronto on March 16.

The Tirreno-Adriatico is typically used as a stepping stone for GC riders to prepare for the first Grand Tour of the year – the Giro d’Italia in May. However, this year’s edition of Tirreno-Adriatico will be without the last three winners.

Last year’s winner Jonas Vingegaard opted to race Paris-Nice instead of defending his trident trophy. 2023 winner Primoz Roglic also skipped this year to focus on the Volta a Catalunya in late March. And, Tadej Pogacar, who won this race in 2021 and 2022, skipped Tirreno to race in Strade Bianche and then Milan-Sanremo in two weeks.

So, this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico is wide open for GC riders who are often overshadowed by the big three mentioned above. Additionally, last year’s podium finishers Juan Ayuso and Jai Hindley will take the starting line this Monday with the hope of winning this stage race.

Let’s take a look at the latest cycling odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Tirreno-Adriatico predictions.

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How To Watch The Tirreno-Adriatico?

Like with many international races, the 2025 Tirreno-Adriatico can be seen on TNT Sports, FloBikes and SBS. In North America, cycling fans will be able to watch this Mediterranean battle on MAX.

Tirreno-Adriatico Route

Since 1966, the Tirreno-Adriatico races across the regions of Italy from the Tyrrhenian Sea to the Adriatic Sea. The 2025 race spans 1,130km across seven stages that include an Individual Time Trial, a few flat stages, one or two hilly stages, and a Mountain Stage with a summit finish. In total, the peloton will climb 14,610 meters in elevation.

Stage 1 (Monday, March 10): Individual Time Trial

The race opens with an Individual Time Trial that spans 11km within the seaside region of Lido di Camaiore. This is the 5^th consecutive year that the Tirreno-Adriatico has started here.

Stage 2 (Tuesday, March 11): Flat Stage

The second stage of the race is a flat one where the sprinters should shine. Riders will race 189km from Camaiore to Follonica and pass one sprint line along the way. Expect the peloton’s fastest men to battle for the victory.

Stage 3 (Wednesday, March 12): Hilly Stage

The third stage of the race is the longest as the peloton will race 239km from Follonica to Colfiorito. There are a few hills along the way, but nothing too difficult to put the sprinters in any trouble. We should see another bunch sprint at the end of the day.

Stage 4 (Thursday, March 13): Hilly Stage

The fourth stage will see higher climbs over the 1,000m altitude mark. The peloton hits the first climb right from the start then a few more throughout the day before descending into the final portion of the day. The peloton will race 184km from Norcia to the finish in Trasacco. This could be a day where the peloton catches any breakaway and finish with another bunch sprint.

Stage 5 (Friday, March 14): Hilly Stage

A rolling hill stage will see the field race 196km from Ascoli Piceno to Pergola. Unlike the previous few hilly stages, this one looks to be suited for punchy riders with nine climbs before a descension into the final few kms of the stage.

Stage 6 (Saturday, March 15): Mountain Stage

On the Queen Stage, the peloton will race 166km from Cartoceto to Frontignano. The finish is a steep climb up to Frontignano. Since this is the toughest mountain climb for the entire race, you can expect this climb to be a battle of the GC contenders to decide who wins the race.

Stage 7 (Sunday, March 16): Flat Stage

The final stage of the race is a 147km procession from Porto Potenza Picena to San Benedetto del Tronto. It will be a day for the sprinters to end the race with a victory. The GC battle would have already been decided before Sunday, so the top riders will just look to stay out of trouble until the finish line.

Tirreno-Adriatico Odds

Check out the latest Tirreno-Adriatico odds:

Last year’s runner-up, Juan Ayuso comes into the 2025 Tirreno-Adriatico as the odds-on favorite. His teammate Adam Yates is right behind him with sportsbooks. Last year’s third-place finisher, Jai Hindley is well down the list of pre-race favorites.

Tirreno-Adriatico Favorites

Let’s take a look at the odds-on favorites for the 60^th edition of the Tirreno-Adriatico:

Juan Ayuso (-138)             

UAE will feature two top GC contenders in Juan Ayuso and Adam Yates. Ayuso has proven to be a strong climber and has also greatly improved his time trialing skills. At just 22-years-old, Ayuso is still rounding into peak form.

He’s competed in three one-day races this year to date and has two consecutive victories. Ayuso won the Trofeo Laigueglia and Faun Drome Classic last week.

His only Tirreno appearance came last year when he finished 2^nd overall. Ayuso captured one stage win and had three Top 10 finishes. He looks poised to pick up the biggest win of his young career.

Adam Yates (+300)

Like his teammate, Adam Yates has also gotten off to a strong start in 2025. His most notable appearance came in the Tour of Oman last month, where he ended up winning the five-stage race.

For Yates, this will be his 7^th appearance in the Tirreno-Adriatico. His best result came in 2019, where he was runner-up to Primoz Roglic. Yates last appeared in 2023, and finished 11^th overall. He has two Top 5s and three Top 10 finishes in this race.

Isaac Del Toro (+1400)    

Isaac Del Toro is the third member of UAE that oddsmakers feel has a strong chance at winning. His 2025 season has seen four races so far, but nothing of note.

A big reason why he’s listed so high is that the Mexican cyclist finished 4^th in this race last year with two Top 10 stage results.

Unfortunately, the 21-year-old is the third top rider on his own team for this race. So, it will take a crash or bad form from Yates and Ayuso for Del Toro to have any hope of winning. I would avoid Del Toro as there are better options among the favorites.

Pello Bilbao (+1400)

Spain’s Bello Bilbao enters as one of the pre-race favorites. This is more so due to how well he’s raced in 2025 so far, than his past success in the Tirreno-Adriatico.

For his career, Bilbao has three appearances in this race and his best result was 9^th in 2022. However, the Bahrain Victorious rider has looked strong during the early portions of the season. He finished 3^rd in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, third in the UAE Tour, and 5^th at Strade Bianche.

These are solid results for the 35-year-old who was competing against some of the best cyclists in the sport today.

With that said, I don’t believe he has the supporting cast to really help in the mountains. UAE and Visma have better teams and that should show up in Stage 6 when the GC battle is decided. However, don’t be surprised if Bilbao is competing for a Top 5 spot or even a podium finish.

Simon Yates (+1600)

Perhaps, the one cyclist that all eyes will be on is Simon Yates. The brother of Adam Yates, will make his season debut with his new team Visma-Lease a Bike. Yates has yet to compete in a race this season, so the Tirreno has even more pressure on the 32-year-old.

The Brit was recruited to be a top supporter for Jonas Vingegaard but the team’s brain trust decided to split them up early on with Yates in Italy and Vingegaard in France.

Furthermore, the decision to put Yates in the Tirreno was met with even more confusion considering that Cian Uijtdebroeks is also on the team and is viewed as one of the leaders.

Let’s not forget that Yates won the 2020 edition of this race and was 10^th in 2021. This will be his third appearance in the Tirreno and he could potentially battle his brother for a podium finish. However, it’s best to take a “wait and see” approach with Simon Yates due to it being his first race of the year and with a new team.

The Best Tirreno-Adriatico Betting Value

The following cyclists offer betting value based on their current Tirreno-Adriatico odds, early season performances, and past success in this race:

Jai Hindley (+2000)

With Primoz Roglic skipping the Tirreno, Jai Hindley becomes the leader of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe as he prepares for a run at the Giro in May. Hindley, who finished third here last year, could be a contender to win this race if he’s improved on his form from the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana where he finished 9^th overall.

Hindley is not a great time trialist, but a short ITT to open Tirreno should limit his losses. If he can hang in the mountains then Hindley could be contending for a podium finish once again.

With that said, his odds offer some betting value but this is more of a flier than a big wager.

Richard Carapaz (+3300)

Richard Carapaz is a GC contender for the Grand Tours but has never finished higher than 20^th in the Tirreno. He has two consecutive DNFs in this race, including last year. With that said, stranger things have happened out on the roads.

Carapaz is one of the best climbers in the peloton, an Olympic gold medalist, and a rider that could easily find himself in the lead of this race.

On the season, Carapaz’s best result came in the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes where he finished 9^th a few weeks ago. If we see improved form, the Ecuadorian could be a sleeper in this race.

Tom Pidcock (+4000)

Tom Pidcock ditched INEOS for a smaller team (Q36.5 Pro Cycling) and has already found success this year. The Brit won the AlUla Tour in early February and was third at the Ruta del Sol. Yet, he won three stages across these two races.

Pidcock had a subpar performance in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad but bounced back to finish second at Strade Bianche.

Pidcock is still expected to take the starting line for the Tirreno-Adriatico. If he does, then you have to like his chances to contend for a podium finish. This year’s route suits him well and he could be a darkhorse to win it all.

The Top Tirreno-Adriatico Longshot

Mikel Landa (+5000) is my pick for the top longshot to win this race. However, I do like Pidcock better. With that said, Landa has six previous starts in the Tirreno with four consecutive Top 7 results. He was third in 2021 and 2022. His last appearance was in 2023, where he finished 7^th.

Landa got his season underway with the Strade Bianche where he finished 11^th overall. Landa has won many stages in Grand Tour races and has one stage win in the Tirreno.

The biggest reason why Landa is a longshot is because he might be riding as a lieutenant for this race due to Paret-Peintre also being on the team. So, it will be interesting to see how Soudal Quick-Step handles the leadership role on the Italian roads.

Tirreno-Adriatico Predictions

Despite what the oddsmakers and the top handicappers are saying heading into the 2025 Tirreno-Adriatico, I think this race is wide open among six to eight riders: the Yates brothers, Ayuso, Hindley, Bilbao, Carapaz, Uijtdebroeks, and Pidcock.

I would love to see the Yates brothers contend for the win, but Simon Yates has yet to race this season and is on a new team. Pidcock is my darkhorse for this race, but I need to see him beat top-tier competition before I can pick him to win.

Hindley, Carapaz and Bilbao could all be contenders but they also have one eye on Grand Tours, which will take away from 100% effort to win the Tirreno.

Uijtdebroeks is a slight sleeper in this race as he’s being overlooked by his teammate Simon Yates. Yet, he’s highly capable of taking the leadership role on the roads and fighting for a podium spot.

With that said, UAE has the strongest team in this race and it’s not even close. Del Toro is getting some pre-race favorite odds and yet, he’s the third man on this team. And, that doesn’t even include Rafal Majka who can crush the peloton on the climbs.

I do believe the winner will come from UAE. However, I’m not going with the odds-on favorite in Ayuso. My concern is that he won’t finish as strong as his teammate Adam Yates. His veteran experience could put him in position to win this race on Stage 6 where Ayuso could fade by then. Plus, Yates offers more value.

Bet: Adam Yates (+300)

Tirreno-Adriatico Results

Roger De Vlaeminck holds the record with six all-time victories. The Belgian won six straight from 1972 to 1977. Italy holds the all-time record with 24 Tirreno-Adriatico wins. As of this writing, no American has ever won this stage race.

The following is a list of the recent Tirreno-Adriatico winners: