UFC Vegas 104 Odds and Predictions

After a pretty intense UFC 313, we get another good one when Martin Vettori and Roman Dolidze face off in a rematch at UFC Fight Night 254.

The UFC Fight Night 254 odds are live at the top MMA sportsbooks, so now is the time to get your bets in before the lines adjust and you lose value. I’ll hand out my top UFC picks for this week’s event, and dive deeper into each matchup so you have sound reasoning for every bet you place.

This week’s UFC FN card has a lot to get excited about, with some nice prospects getting some exposure, and of course the main event giving us an explosive showdown to cap off the night.

If you’re looking to bet on UFC Fight Night 254, read on for the latest odds and our predictions.

Where To Watch UFC Fight Night 254?

UFC Fight Night 254 can be viewed on ESPN+. The Prelims fire off at 3:00 pm EST, while the main card gets going at 6:00 pm EST.

When Is UFC Fight Night 254?

UFC FN 254 goes down next weekend on Saturday, March 15th, 2025.

Where Is UFC Fight Night 254?

You can always try to attend UFC Fight Night 254 live, but you’ll need to head to Vegas to do so. This weekend’s event will be hosted at UFC APEX in Las Vegas.

UFC Fight Night 254 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night 254 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

This week’s batch of UFC odds are not as welcoming as what we saw at UFC 313. The main card definitely offers good value on both sides, but there are a whopping three fights here that are incredibly lopsided.

Of course, that doesn’t always mean the favorite will win, and that is part of what makes betting on MMA so exciting. That said, the main event could have had some better matchups, and right now I don’t mind leaning into the favored fighters.

You see my main event picks for UFC FN 254 above, but if you need even more guidance, consider using some of the best handicappers available online.

Of course, my picks were fire last week. I went 3-2 on the main card and 7-3 overall. Considering it was very arguable Pereira should have won, my plays could have been even better. I also nailed two upsets (Gaethje and Ferreira), so you should have made out nicely if you used my bets.

Let’s access that magic again, starting with the main card predictions.

Visit The Industry’s Best

Handicapping Membership
For More Expert UFC Picks!

Get Free Trial

UFC Fight Night 254 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC Fight Night 254 gets going at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Marvin Vettori (-140) vs. Roman Dolidze (+120)

We get a fun rematch to close out UFC FN 254, as Marvin Vettori (19-7-1), especially when you recall that it was a bit of a controversial bout. Vettori edged out Dolidze in a Decision win, but the fact that it was so close should be cause for pause.

Dolidze (14-3) is five years older, but he held up nicely in the first meeting. He also has a two-inch reach edge, is two inches taller, and he’s the more dangerous fighter standing up.

Vettori is as tough as they come, of course. He’s never been finished, but the damage he absorbs does give way to Decision defeats at times, and he’s admittedly inching closer to that first career KO. Considering how much trouble he got himself in last June versus Jared Cannonier, I think it’s worth betting on him getting KO’d for the first time ever.

Even if you don’t think that happens, though, there’s a decent chance he loses this time around if the fight goes the distance and he takes on a ton of damage. The value with Dolidze in the rematch is a little too good for me to pass up.

Bet: Rome Dolidze (+120)

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-180) vs. Chidi Njokuani (+155)

Next up we have dos Santos (25-8-1), who is 38 now and has been a bit hot and cold lately (1-1-1) over his last three fights. We know he can strike (15 KOs) and he’s incredibly lethal standing up, but the age factor has to work against him at some point.

It didn’t his last time out, as he TKO’d Zach Scroggin in November of 2024. I don’t mind his upside here, but this could be a dicey spot to put your faith in his -180 moneyline. On the other side is Chidi Bang Bang (24-10), who is definitely vulnerable to big hits, but is equally explosive (14 KOs).

Chidi has been pretty erratic of late, as he lost three in a row before winning his last two. We have not seen his knockout ability for some time, as he last won via early stoppage way back in 2022. That was five fights ago, but with this fight almost certainly staying on the feet, he is going to be live for the upset.

I will agree that Santos is the more trustworthy fighter and the safer play. However, this one is probably ending early and Chidi has the ability to be on the winning side. I’ll hope on the value at gam+155.

Bet: Chidi Njokuani (+155)

Kevin Vallejos (-475) vs. Seung Woo Choi (+375)

The first two fights are pretty tight, but things get out of control for this one, where Kevin Vallejos (14-1) is a huge betting favorite. The math checks out, as he is nine years younger than his opponent, and grades out as the far nastier striker (6.85 significant strikes landed per minute).

Vallejos has certainly been impressive so far, with the Argentinian racking up 10 knockouts across 14 wins. He’ll be making his UFC debut after ending Cam Teague’s night early in Dana White’s Contender Series last September.

Choi certainly seems like a bit of a pawn here. He does have 6 KOs to his name, but he’s been finished five times and is just 11-7 so far. He has not handled the jump to the UFC promotion well, as he got TKO’d in his last fight and is just 4-6 since joining the UFC back in 2019.

This feels like an auto play. Vallejos to win at -475 is a bit steep, though, so I’d be targeting inside the distance or KO bets for this one.

Bet: Kevin Vallejos (-475)

Alexander Hernandez (-180) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+155)

There is a third bout on the UFC FN 254 main card that looks pretty close at first glance, and it’s this clash between Alexander Hernandez (15-8) and Kurt Holobaugh (22-8).

I tend to lean towards Hernandez immediately, however, as he’s six years younger, has a two-inch reach edge, and grades out similarly to his opponent in striking and takedown offense. Hernandez has obviously slipped in recent years, going just 2-4 over his last six bouts.

That said, Hernandez has bounced back lately, as he scored a nice Decision victory over Austin Hubbard last October, and he hasn’t been finished since 2022. That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement, but Holobaugh is also 38 now. His second go-around under the UFC banner has gone far better than his first, however.

This one is one of the tougher fights to call. Hernandez is not the same fighter he once was, but he is still dangerous and trusting aging fighters isn’t fun. Give me Hernandez, but it’s very close.

Bet: Alexander Hernandez (-180)

Da’Mon Blackshear (-505) vs. Cody Gibson (+390)

I said there would be some sketchy fights, and this is one of them, as Da’Mon Blackshear (15-7-1) is a massive favorite versus Cody Gibson (22-10). Age is a factor here, as Blackshear is seven years younger than his opponent, while he also has a mild one-inch reach edge.

Blackshear has the striking advantage in this one, but he also has comparable takedown offense and is a nightmare (10 submissions) on the mat. He’s never been submitted, himself, so if this one gets to the canvas, it’s nighty night for Gibson.

The form has been shaky for Da’Mon, of course. He dropped two fights in a row before bouncing back and submitting Cody Stamann last November. Gibson has been in decent form of late, as he edged out Chad Anheliger in his last bout, and also submitted Brian Kelleher in July of last year.

Gibson is the more versatile fighter and plenty capable on the mat, but Blackshear is more dominant in that regard. I see this fight going to the mat and if so, Blackshear is the clear favorite to get the job done.

Bet: Da’Mon Blackshear (-505)

Su Young You (-700) vs. AJ Cunningham (+500)

The last fight of the UFC Fight Night 254 main card is the worst one in terms of betting odds. Of course, that depends on how you view AJ Cunningham (11-4), who is fully expected to lose. Your favorite is Su Young You (14-3), who actually grades out poorly for this one from a sheer data perspective.

Cunningham grades out as the superior striker, while he also owns a disturbing six-inch reach advantage. That might be where the excitement ends for Cunningham, however, as a closer look tells you his grappling plays into the striking numbers and he also doesn’t have the greatest gas tank.

You, on the other hand, is highly skilled and versatile. He is 3-0 in his last three UFC fights and he has the ability to end this fight early in a number of ways. He’s a huge favorite for good reason, and I’m not interested in betting against him.

A -700 bet isn’t getting you anywhere, of course, so I’d either fade this bout altogether or target an inside the distance win by You.

Bet: Su Young You (-700)

UFC Fight Night 254 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night 254 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The UFC odds for the Prelims don’t get all that much better at UFC FN 254. There are only three modestly priced bouts, while the other half look unevenly matched.

Will there be enough upsets worth targeting this week? Or are the top betting favorites the way to go? I’ll break each fight down and take a closer look to support my UFC Fight Night 254 predictions.

UFC Fight Night 254 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC Fight Night 254 Prelims will roll out at 3:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-171) vs. Ryan Spann (+146)

The UFC Fight Night 254 Prelims feature a pretty underrated clash between Waldo Cortes-Acosta (12-1) and Ryan Spann (22-10). Spann’s record isn’t imposing, but he has a one-inch reach edge here and he does have the ability to end fights early.

Usually he’ll do that on the ground, just like he did against Ovince St. Preux last October. That submission win was his 13th of his career, and also snapped a three-fight losing streak. Spann is skilled and a problem if he can take Cortes-Acosta to the mat, but he’s a lot more vulnerable at this stage of his career.

That said, I really like his chances to submit Cortest-Acosta here and he offers nice value as a +146 underdog.

Bet: Ryan Spann (+146)

Stephanie Luciano (-226) vs. Sam Hughes (+191)

There are two fights involving women and the first one isn’t very exciting. Stephanie Luciano (6-1-1) is the clear favorite against Sam Hughes (9-6), as he is far younger, has a height and reach edge, and is the more prolific striker.

Hughes is a versatile fighter, but she’s been finished twice in just 15 fights and over half of her fights have gone the distance. Her finishing ability isn’t enough to scare me here, plus Luciano simply inflicts more damage.

Luciano isn’t as experienced or quite as versatile, but she’s the more talented fighter. I smell a KO.

Bet: Stephanie Luciano (-226)

Diyar Nurgozhay (-350) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+285)

You’re getting a fun favorite in Diyar Nurgozhay (10-0) in this next one. The 27-year old is obviously undefeated, but he’s also a powerful fighter with elite finishing ability. He proved that by knocking out Bartosz Szewzcyk in his last fight, and now he’ll hope to impress in his official UFC debut.

He’ll get Brendson Ribeiro (16-7), who is far more experienced, and it’s certainly worth noting that he is a bit taller and has a massive reach advantage (7 inches!). While all true, he’s also been finished five times in his seven losses and is not a very imposing opponent.

Diyar is a big favorite for a reason and judging by his last fight, I doubt he will disappoint. I like him enough at -350, but would definitely be seeking out a KO or inside the distance wager involving him.

Bet: Diyar Nurgozhay (-350)

Josias Musasa (-650) vs. Carlos Vera (+475)

An even bigger favorite is Musasa (8-0), who is double the price and also undefeated so far. Musasa has two inches on Carlos Vera (11-4), as well as a nice 5-inch reach advantage. He also grades out as the better striker and is 11 years younger than his opponent.

Vera has been fighting professionally since 2014, but he dropped a Decision to Rinya Nakamura last February. It’s been a year since he fought and the 37-year old just doesn’t offer much knockout ability.

There is a risk of a submission here, but Musasa is so explosive that I’m not too concerned. The 26-year old has seven KOs in eight fights and will likely hunt for another this weekend. That is precisely what I will be doing, as well, since his -650 moneyline is a bit absurd.

Bet: Josias Musasa (-650)

Andre Lima (-360) vs. Daniel Barez (+295)

An extremely underrated UFC FN bout is Lima (10-0) versus Daniel Barez (17-6). This is another prospect with a perfect record, and Lima has a mild edge in height and reach.

Barez has much more experience, and he has versatile finishing ability (7 KOs, 6 submissions). He’s also never been KO’d, and he’s been in solid form (5-1 over his last six fights). His strong chin and versatility are red flags for Lima bettors, as Lima has not proven to be a threat to submit on the mat to this point.

I still favor Lima’s KO ability here, but it’s worth noting that he hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2023. I think he ends that rough streak and stays unbeaten, however.

Bet: Andre Lima (-360)

Josiane Nunes (-170) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+145)

Lastly, we have our second battle featuring women, where Josiane Nunes (10-3) takes on Priscila Cachoeira (12-6). The latter has more experience, but Nunes is the more imposing striker.

Nunes is also five years younger with two inches in reach advantage. Cachoeira will tower over her by five inches, but that’s about the only edge I see her having here. Nunes is a really aggressive and pesky fighter and is as tough as they come. She can KO anyone (7 KOs) and has never been finished.

All of this is bad news for Priscila, who has lost three of her last five. She’s been submitted in all of those losses, of course, and that’s not really Nunes’ game. That said, I favor Nunes in a stand-up fight.

Bet: Josiane Nunes (-170)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Rome Dolidze (+120)
• Kevin Vallejos (-475)
• Ryan Spann (+146)

I like to target the underdog when fighters meet for a second time, assuming the analysis matches up. I think it does for Dolidze, as you could argue he should have won the first time he faced Vettori.

Vallejos is a rising prospect and a huge favorite. He feels like one of the safest UFC Fight Night 254 bets, although I’d definitely target his KO wagers as well.

Ryan Spann is also a really good value. He’s eaten a lot of losses, but he’s very experienced and highly skilled. He’s a good value bet in a fight where he very well could have the upper hand.

UFC Fight Night 254 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: