Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions March 11th 2025

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks March 11th 2025

At 7:30 ET, the Pacers (-144) will host the Bucks (+121) in a Central Division matchup. The Bucks (-3) are 4th in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the Central Division, while the Pacers (-3) are 5th in the East and 3rd in the Central.

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis and can be seen on TNT. The over/under line for this game is 234 points.

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Bucks vs. Pacers Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
• Where: Indianapolis at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• Date: Tuesday, March 11th
• Betting Odds MIL -3, MIL -144 | IND +121 O/U 234

The Bucks Can Win If…

Milwaukee dropped to 36-27 on the season after a 112-100 home loss to the Cavaliers on Sunday. The Bucks were +7 point underdogs going into the game and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 212 points fell well short of the 241.5 O/U line.

After trailing 62-52 at halftime, the Bucks cut the deficit to 84-77 going into the 4th quarter. However, a 13-0 run by the Cavaliers put the game out of reach, as Milwaukee couldn’t recover from the 97-92 scoreline.

In their 112-100 loss to the Cavaliers, the Bucks struggled offensively, shooting just 42.9% from the field and hitting only 9 threes at a 29% clip. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 30 points and 9 rebounds, connecting on 54.2% of his shots.

Damian Lillard added 22 points, though he shot 42.1%, while Kyle Kuzma contributed 14 points, making 2 threes at 40%. Giannis scored 9 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, while Lillard also had 9 in the opening period.

Defensively, the Bucks struggled in the 1st quarter, giving up 34 points, but they tightened up in the 3rd, allowing just 22 points. Overall, they gave up 112 points on 44% shooting from the Cavaliers.

Milwaukee had trouble defending the three, as Cleveland hit 19 threes on 40% shooting. The Bucks sent the Cavaliers to the line 19 times, where they made 15 free throws. Milwaukee finished with 9 steals and 2 blocks.

• Through their last ten road games, Milwaukee has an ATS record of just 3-7. However, their overall record was 5-5 while averaging 111 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Bucks have a straight up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.
• Over their last five games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Pacers Can Win If…

Indiana fell to 35-28 on the season after a 121-103 road loss to the Bulls on Monday. The Pacers, who were -4 point favorites, failed to cover the spread, and the game’s total of 224 points came in under the O/U line of 239.

After a 27-27 tie in the 1st quarter, the Bulls took control with a 40-point 2nd quarter, including a 12-0 run. Indiana trailed 94-73 going into the 4th, and despite outscoring Chicago 30-27 in the final period, they couldn’t close the gap.

In Monday’s loss to the Bulls, the Pacers struggled offensively, shooting just 39.6% from the field and 25% from three-point range, making only 10 threes. Myles Turner led the team with 15 points, 11 of which came in the 2nd quarter.

Pascal Siakam added 13 points, while Ben Sheppard contributed 12, scoring 7 in the 4th quarter. Sheppard hit 2 threes at a 50% clip, while Turner also made 2, shooting 40% from deep.

Despite holding the Bulls to 27 points in three separate quarters, the Pacers’ defense struggled in the 2nd, giving up 40 points in a 121-103 loss. Indiana allowed Chicago to shoot 50% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers limited the Bulls to 12 made threes on 36% shooting. Indiana also sent Chicago to the line 14 times, where they made 11 free throws. Defensively, the Pacers recorded 14 steals and 4 blocks.

• Across the Pacers last three home games, the team averaged 113 points per game while allowing 121. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 0-3, while going 0-3 straight-up.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Indiana has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.
• In their last five games, the Pacers have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Coming in as the underdogs at +3, we have the Pacers as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 234, and our model projects the Bucks and Pacers to reach a combined total of 265 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

Milwaukee and Indiana Seek to Rebound from Recent Losses

The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers will face off Tuesday night in Indianapolis, both looking to snap losing streaks as they battle for Eastern Conference playoff positioning.

Indiana has lost three straight games, including a 121-103 blowout loss to the Chicago Bulls on Monday. Without star guard Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers struggled to generate offense and fell apart in the second quarter.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, has dropped two in a row, losing to the Orlando Magic (111-109) and Cleveland Cavaliers (112-100) over the weekend. The Bucks had won eight of nine before this recent slump.

With just five games separating them in the standings, this matchup is crucial for both teams. Milwaukee is fighting to secure a top-three seed, while Indiana is looking to stay out of the play-in tournament.

Pacers Struggling Without Tyrese Haliburton

The Pacers’ three-game losing streak has been largely due to the absence of Tyrese Haliburton (hip-flexor strain). Without their All-Star playmaker, Indiana has struggled with ball movement and consistency.

In Monday’s loss to the Bulls, Indiana kept the game close early, but a disastrous 40-21 second quarter buried them. Coach Rick Carlisle pulled his starters in the third quarter, frustrated with the team’s effort.

“The second quarter killed,” Carlisle said. “We’re inconsistent. The second quarter is not acceptable; we’ve got to do better. Our main guys have got to do better. And I’ve got to do better.”

Haliburton has now missed three straight games, but Carlisle says he is close to returning. Without him, Indiana has relied on Pascal Siakam (21.3 PPG) and Bennedict Mathurin (14.5 PPG), but the offense lacks rhythm.

Indiana currently ranks third in the NBA in field-goal percentage (48.9%), but without Haliburton running the offense, they are struggling to create quality shots.

Bucks Need to Regain Offensive Flow

Milwaukee’s back-to-back losses over the weekend exposed major offensive issues, especially stagnant ball movement.

Coach Doc Rivers was vocal about his frustration, pointing out that the offense is becoming too predictable and lacks fluidity.

“You don’t win when the ball stops. I don’t care who it is — ball movement, trust, it uplifts your entire team,” Rivers said.

The Bucks have struggled against top teams this season, going 0-9 against Cleveland, Boston, and New York—the East’s current top three teams. They need to prove they can compete against playoff-caliber opponents.

The good news is that Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (groin soreness) are expected to play, giving Milwaukee a full-strength starting lineup.

Season Series: Bucks Lead 2-0

The Bucks have already won both matchups against Indiana this season, giving them the edge in a potential playoff tiebreaker.

• Nov. 22: Milwaukee 129-117 (Home)
• Dec. 31: Milwaukee 120-112 (Away)

In the most recent game, Giannis dominated with 30 points and 12 rebounds, while Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton (now in Washington) added key contributions.

A win on Tuesday would clinch the season series for Milwaukee, giving them a potential advantage in playoff seeding.

Key Injuries & Lineups

Indiana Pacers

• Tyrese Haliburton (hip-flexor strain) – Questionable
• Jalen Smith (knee) – OUT

Milwaukee Bucks

• Bobby Portis (suspension) – OUT
• Chris Livingston (illness) – OUT
• Damian Lillard (groin soreness) – Probable
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) – Probable
• Pat Connaughton (calf) – Questionable

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What to Expect in Tuesday’s Matchup

Indiana needs a strong start after Monday’s disastrous second quarter. If Haliburton returns, the Pacers’ offense will look much sharper, but if he remains out, expect another sluggish performance.

Milwaukee must focus on ball movement and avoid stagnant offense. With Giannis and Lillard both healthy, they have the talent advantage, but the Bucks need to execute better to snap their losing streak.

Both teams are looking for momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season, but only one will come away with a much-needed win on Tuesday night.