Houston Rockets vs Phoenix-suns Picks and Predictions March 12th 2025

Houston Rockets vs Phoenix-Suns March 12th 2025

At 8:00 ET, the Houston Rockets (-177) will host the Phoenix Suns (+148) in a Western Conference matchup. The Rockets are currently favored by 4.5 points and have won three straight games. The over/under line for the game is set at 229.

This game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston and can be seen on SCHN.

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Suns vs. Rockets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
• Where: Houston at Toyota Center
• Date: Wednesday, March 12th
• Betting Odds HOU -4.5, PHO +148 | HOU -177 O/U 229

The Suns Can Win If…

The Suns dropped to 30-35 on the season after a narrow 120-118 loss to the Grizzlies on Monday. Phoenix, who entered the game as +2.5 point underdogs, managed to cover the spread. The total score of 238 points fell short of the 244.5-point line.

Phoenix started strong, leading 34-26 after the 1st quarter, but Memphis took control in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, outscoring the Suns 69-56. Phoenix trimmed the deficit in the 4th, outscoring the Grizzlies 28-25, but couldn’t complete the comeback.

In the Suns’ 120-118 loss to the Grizzlies, Kevin Durant led the way with 35 points, hitting 7 threes at a 77.8% rate. He added 5 assists and 5 rebounds. Devin Booker contributed 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists, though he shot just 37.5% from deep. Tyus Jones chipped in 12 points, knocking down 4 threes at 80% efficiency.

Phoenix connected on 20 threes as a team, shooting 52.6% from beyond the arc, while their overall field goal percentage was 45.6%. Durant scored 14 points in the 1st quarter, while Booker added 12 in the 4th.

Defensively, the Suns struggled in the 3rd quarter, giving up 38 points, which contributed to their 120-118 loss to the Grizzlies. They allowed Memphis to shoot 46% from the field overall. Phoenix did manage to tighten up in the 4th quarter, holding the Grizzlies to 25 points.

The Suns allowed 17 three-pointers on 37% shooting from deep. They sent Memphis to the line 27 times, with the Grizzlies converting 23 free throws. Phoenix gave up 11 offensive rebounds and recorded 6 steals and 2 blocks in the game.

• Across their ten previous road games, Phoenix has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-8 while averaging 121 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Suns have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-0.
• Over their last three games, the Suns have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 3-0 vs. the spread.

The Rockets Can Win If…

With a 97-84 win over the Magic on Monday, the Rockets improved to 40-25 this season. Houston, favored by 3.5 points, covered the spread at home. The game’s total of 181 points fell well below the 210.5-point line.

A key moment came when the Rockets went on a 13-0 run, turning a 19-13 deficit into a 26-19 lead. They outscored Orlando 24-16 in the 3rd quarter, and both teams scored 22 points in the 4th.

In their win over the Magic, the Rockets shot just 39.3% from the field but connected on 16 threes at a 37.2% rate. Jabari Smith Jr. led the way with 20 points, hitting 5 threes at 50% efficiency.

Dillon Brooks added 17 points, and Jalen Green contributed 15 with 8 assists. Smith scored 7 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, while Alperen Şengün had 8 of his 14 points in the opening period.

The Rockets put on a defensive clinic against the Magic, holding them to just 84 points on Monday. Houston gave up 19 points in the 1st quarter and 27 in the 2nd, but they tightened up in the 3rd, allowing only 16 points. In the 4th quarter, the Rockets conceded 22 points but still managed to secure the win.

Houston’s defense limited Orlando to 32% shooting from the field, including just 25% from beyond the arc, where the Magic made only 8 threes. The Rockets sent the Magic to the line 24 times, where they hit 20 free throws. Houston also recorded 43 defensive rebounds, gave up 13 offensive boards, and added 4 steals and 4 blocks.

• In their last five games at home, the Rockets have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 111 points per game in these contests.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Rockets have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.
• In their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

As the underdogs with a spread of +4.5, we recommend going with the Suns on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 229 and given that our model is projecting 252 points between the teams, we like the over.

Jalen Green Steps Up as Rockets Prepare for Suns

With key players sidelined, the Houston Rockets found new ways to win, thanks in part to Jalen Green’s playmaking. The Rockets extended their winning streak to three games with a 97-84 victory over the Orlando Magic on Monday, and they now prepare to host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night.

Green Leads the Charge Amid Injuries

Houston entered Monday’s game without second-year wing Amen Thompson and veteran point guard Fred VanVleet, both sidelined by ankle injuries. The team needed alternative ball-handling solutions, and Green answered the call, recording 15 points and a game-high eight assists.

Green has now posted at least eight assists in three of his last nine games, a significant step up from his previous season-high of six. Aaron Holiday and Alperen Sengun also added four assists each, helping the Rockets adjust to the loss of their primary facilitators.

While Thompson is expected to miss 10-14 days after his injury on Saturday against New Orleans, VanVleet could return sooner. Until then, Houston will continue relying on Green’s growing playmaking abilities.

Jabari Smith Jr. Finds His Rhythm

Another bright spot for Houston was the performance of Jabari Smith Jr., who scored 20 points, marking his first 20-point game since Dec. 23. Smith also drained five 3-pointers, providing an offensive spark in a makeshift starting lineup.

Rockets coach Ime Udoka praised Smith’s versatility, particularly in zone-breaking situations.

“The versatility continues to help us playing him with big lineups or downsizing with him as well,” Udoka said. “Even when he was missing shots, he was hunting and taking the right ones.”

Smith’s fifth 20-point game of the season is an encouraging sign of his continued development.

Suns Struggle to Close Out Games

The Phoenix Suns, meanwhile, are reeling. They suffered a 120-118 loss to Memphis on Monday, falling to 4-7 since the All-Star break. The Suns have now lost four games by two points or in overtime during that stretch.

Despite winning five of six games in late January, Phoenix has gone just 6-14 since, slipping three games over .500 and failing to meet preseason expectations.

The Suns struggled in crunch time against Memphis, missing four of five 3-pointers in the final 61 seconds.

“It’s a handful of games that just come down to one possession, one play,” Suns coach Mike Budenholzer said. “We’ve just got to continue to try and make fewer mistakes and force our opponent to make more mistakes.”

Phoenix has also lacked consistency on defense, allowing too many costly breakdowns late in games.

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High Stakes for Both Teams

For the Rockets, maintaining momentum and integrating Jalen Green’s improved passing will be crucial. Meanwhile, the Suns desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

With both teams hungry for a victory, expect a fast-paced, competitive battle in Houston on Wednesday night.