Michigan State Spartans vs Wisconsin Badgers Picks and Predictions March 15th 2025

Wisconsin’s 3-Point Strength vs. Spartans’ Elite Perimeter Defense

The Big Ten Tournament semifinal between No. 7 Michigan State (27-5) and No. 18 Wisconsin (25-8) sets up a captivating showdown between contrasting styles. The Badgers put on an unprecedented shooting clinic in their quarterfinal victory over UCLA, sinking 19 of 32 three-pointers to tie the Big Ten tournament record. However, duplicating such success will be challenging against Michigan State’s nationally renowned perimeter defense. The Spartans rank second in the nation, holding opponents to a mere 27.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Wisconsin’s recent shooting performance has captured attention, especially the efficiency of first-team All-Big Ten guard John Tonge. Against UCLA, Tonge showcased his scoring ability with a flawless 6-for-6 from long range, tallying a game-high 26 points. Yet, Wisconsin recognizes the danger of over-reliance on outside shooting. The key question for bettors is whether the Badgers can adjust their game plan and find success inside against a disciplined Michigan State defense.

For a competitive edge before wagering on this exciting Big Ten semifinal, don’t miss our expert NCAAB Betting Picks.

Wisconsin’s Offensive Strategy: Attacking Inside-Out

Senior point guard Kamari McGee stressed the importance of Wisconsin not getting “jump-shot happy,” urging his teammates to aggressively attack the paint. In their previous matchup against Michigan State—a 71-62 defeat on March 2—the Badgers shot a season-low 15.6 percent (5-for-32) from three-point range, demonstrating the Spartans’ effectiveness in defending the arc. Wisconsin’s ability to penetrate and force Michigan State defenders to collapse inward could open higher-percentage perimeter shots in this rematch. McGee, who hit all three of his attempts from beyond the arc against UCLA, emphasized that Wisconsin’s best three-point opportunities come from working the ball inside first.

Wisconsin’s ability to adapt their offensive approach will significantly influence bettors considering the spread and totals for this semifinal matchup. The effectiveness of their adjustment to a balanced scoring attack could be decisive.

Live College Basketball Scores & Betting Odds! – Track every game in real-time.

The Importance of Max Klesmit’s Return for Wisconsin

A critical element in Saturday’s rematch is the availability of Wisconsin guard Max Klesmit, who missed the first matchup due to injury. Klesmit (9.5 ppg) hasn’t posted gaudy numbers since returning, but his value to the Badgers goes beyond the box score. Coach Greg Gard highlighted that Klesmit’s absence disrupted team rotations, forcing McGee into a heavier workload and altering the effectiveness of Wisconsin’s bench.

Now healthy, Klesmit allows McGee to return to his preferred sixth-man role, providing a spark off the bench rather than carrying a starter’s load. Klesmit’s return means the Badgers will enter this critical semifinal with their intended lineup and rotation, enhancing their chances of countering Michigan State’s defensive prowess.

Spartans’ Offensive Resurgence Powered by Jase Richardson

Michigan State has transformed into a dynamic offensive team down the stretch, driven largely by the emergence of freshman guard Jase Richardson. Richardson has averaged 16.9 points and shot an impressive 38.3 percent from three-point territory since moving into the Spartans’ starting lineup. The Spartans are 9-1 in that span, including victories over six ranked opponents, which highlights their recent surge and growing confidence.

Coach Tom Izzo praised Richardson’s intelligence and maturity, noting his cerebral approach to the game. Richardson’s ability to diagnose defenses and execute clutch plays has revitalized Michigan State’s perimeter game, complementing their elite defense. Bettors should note Richardson’s elevated role and recent performances when considering prop bets and total points for this game.

John Wooden Award Betting Trends! – See which players are favored for college basketball’s top honor.

Expert Prediction and Betting Insight

The critical factor in this semifinal is the matchup between Wisconsin’s perimeter shooting and Michigan State’s nationally elite three-point defense. Wisconsin’s discipline to maintain an inside-out attack will significantly determine their success, while Michigan State’s recent offensive improvements suggest a balanced and confident Spartans squad.

Ultimately, Michigan State’s proven ability to neutralize perimeter threats and their offensive resurgence under Richardson make them slight favorites. However, the presence of a fully healthy Wisconsin team presents bettors with intriguing options.