Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Picks and Predictions March 15th 2025

SEC Championship Spot and No. 1 Seed Hopes on the Line

No. 4 Florida (28-4) and No. 5 Alabama (25-7) will clash in the SEC Tournament semifinals on Saturday afternoon in Nashville, with both teams looking to strengthen their case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Neither team trailed in their respective quarterfinal wins on Friday, setting up a battle between two of the conference’s best.

Florida already edged Alabama 99-94 on the road earlier this month, but with an SEC championship berth on the line, expect an intense rematch. Bettors looking at this matchup should consider the offensive firepower both teams bring to the table when evaluating College Basketball Picks for this showdown.

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Florida’s Red-Hot Shooting Leads the Way

The Gators opened their SEC Tournament run with a 95-81 victory over Missouri, showcasing their elite shooting ability. Florida shot 61.8 percent from the field, with Alijah Martin (17 points) and Walter Clayton Jr. (18 points) leading the charge.

However, Florida’s biggest concern heading into the semifinals is ball security. The Gators committed 16 turnovers against Missouri, with Clayton responsible for five of them. Coach Todd Golden acknowledged that his team was “careless” at times, and against an Alabama team that thrives on turning defense into offense, limiting giveaways will be crucial.

Thomas Haugh provided a major boost, finishing with 16 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. The sophomore has made a dramatic improvement at the free-throw line, shooting 81.3 percent this season after making just 45.7 percent as a freshman. If he continues to step up, Florida’s frontcourt could be a difference-maker against Alabama’s high-scoring attack.

Alabama Thriving Off Defensive Pressure

Alabama punched its ticket to the semifinals with a dominant 99-70 win over Kentucky, forcing 16 turnovers and turning them into a staggering 29-6 edge in points off turnovers. The Crimson Tide’s defense set the tone early, and their ability to convert defensive plays into fast-break points overwhelmed the Wildcats.

Labaron Philon led the way with 21 points, while Jarin Stevenson had a breakout performance with 16 points off the bench. Stevenson had struggled in recent weeks, failing to reach double figures in seven straight games, but he found his rhythm against Kentucky, shooting 6-for-8 from the field and 3-for-5 from three-point range.

Alabama coach Nate Oats emphasized the importance of maintaining high energy and defensive intensity, and given Florida’s turnover issues in the quarterfinals, expect the Crimson Tide to apply pressure early.

Head-to-Head Season Series Analysis

Florida won the only regular-season meeting between these teams, defeating Alabama 99-94 in Tuscaloosa on March 5. In that game, Alex Condon had a career night with 27 points and 10 rebounds, while Clayton added 22 points and eight assists.

Alabama’s Mark Sears was dominant in that contest as well, pouring in 30 points to go with six rebounds and five assists. However, the Crimson Tide struggled to contain Florida’s inside scoring, as the Gators consistently attacked the paint.

With both teams battling for NCAA Tournament positioning, expect adjustments from both sides. Alabama will likely put more emphasis on stopping Condon inside, while Florida will need to protect the ball to prevent Alabama from capitalizing in transition.

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Expert Prediction and Betting Insight

Florida and Alabama have two of the most explosive offenses in the country, and their previous matchup was a high-scoring affair. The Gators’ ability to shoot efficiently and score in the paint gives them a strong foundation, but Alabama’s ability to generate turnovers and score in transition makes them a dangerous opponent.

With both teams playing for a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, expect an up-tempo game with plenty of scoring. Florida’s superior half-court offense could give them an edge, but Alabama’s defensive pressure has the potential to turn the game in their favor.

For bettors, evaluating the total points and turnover battle will be key factors when considering College Basketball Picks for this matchup.