2025 Men’s NCAA First Four Odds and Predictions

The 2025 Men’s NCAA College Basketball tournament is ready to start. The brackets are set, and all that’s left is for the First Four to finalize everything.

History is unkind to the last four teams into March Madness, but sometimes they do win once they get into the first round. Also, you can bet on the NCAA First Four odds at the top sports betting sites. While you may not have thought it to be possible, that’s two good reasons for you to care about what happens in these games.

The First Four admittedly has little bearing on what happens in the NCAA Men’s Championship, but it gets the blood flowing and is the last piece to the puzzle before you start filling out brackets.

If you came here looking for some College Basketball picks for the First Four, you won’t leave in disappointment. Read on as I go over some key First Four details, touch on the latest 2025 First Four odds, and offer my predictions.

What Is The NCAA First Four?

The First Four represents the last four teams to enter the March Madness tournament. This pre-March Madness tourney pits the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers against the four at-large teams with the lowest seeds. The four winners advance to the Big Dance.

When Is The NCAA First Four?

The First Four wastes no time getting the party started, as the games will be played on March 18th and March 19th in 2025.

NCAA First Four Odds

Check out the latest NCAAB odds for the First Four games:

The cool thing about the 2025 First Four odds? There is not a single slam dunk favorite. The biggest favorite is Alabama State at -170, but this tells us even the top sportsbooks aren’t sure how to price these games.

We could be headed for some nail-biters and perhaps even some buzzer-beaters before the “madness” truly ensues. On top of that, the tight lines could give way to an upset or two before the NCAA men’s college basketball tourney officially gets started.

I have my First Four predictions all worked out, but I’ll go over each pick in greater detail below. You can roll with my First Four picks, or seek extra advice with some of the best handicappers you’ll find online.

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Alabama State vs. St. Francis Odds

• Alabama State (-170)
• St. Francis (-145)

It’s a bit shocking that Alabama State isn’t a bigger betting favorite in this game. They are white hot, having won 10 of their last 11 games, and they just took home the Southwestern Athletic crown.

They aren’t much to look at thanks to a 19-15 record, but they have been straight flames for a while now, and they’re facing a St. Francis squad that at 16-17 isn’t even above .500 for the year. St. Francis deserves credit for winning their last six games to get this far, but the competition they faced was extremely weak, and they scored just 46 points in a tight three-point win to claim their conference title.

St. Francis gives up over 73 points per game and they’re tasked with defending a pretty explosive Hornets team that ranks 57th in made threes per game. Naturally, the odds are favoring the correct side in this one.

Alabama State vs. St. Francis Predictions

There’s always the chance St. Francis finds a way to get to .500 here, but the bulk of their season paints the picture of a middling team at best. They have given up a ton of three-pointers on the year, too, and that doesn’t mesh well with what Alabama State does best.

The Hornets attempt the 42nd most threes per game in the nation, and while they’re not the most efficient bunch, it makes for a rough matchup for St. Francis.

Of course, neither of these teams have high hopes if they do win, as a showdown with #1 ranked Auburn awaits. The team best equipped to give the Tigers a fight is undeniably Alabama State, however, and that’s who I expect to emerge from the First Four this week.

Bet: Alabama State (-170)

American vs. Mount St. Mary’s Odds

• American (-150)
• Mount St. Mary’s (+130)

American waltzes into the 2025 First Four as a -150 favorite, having completed a stellar season in the Patriot League. The Eagles went 22-12 overall and dominated their conference with a 13-5 record and a conference title.

On the other side is Mount St. Mary’s, who also went 22-12 on the year, but needed a four-game winning streak and the Metro Atlantic Athletic championship to punch their First Four ticket. They did so in style, however, as they blew out Iona (63-49) in the title game.

That win resulted in Mount St. Mary’s first ever MAAC title, which may give them the narrative edge in this one despite being the underdog.

American vs. Mount St. Mary’s Predictions

These teams had identical records on the year, but it was actually Mount St. Mary’s that had a win over a Power 5 squad; something American wasn’t able to do.

American did better in their own conference, however, and they have one of the most suffocating defenses in the college ranks (68.1 points per game), good for 57th in the nation. They’re especially stingy on the outside, ranking 32nd in three-point makes allowed per contest.

Mount St. Mary’s defense isn’t far behind, however, ranking inside the top 100 teams in all of college basketball, allowing 70 points per game. They don’t let teams get to the free throw line with regularity, either (41st in free throw attempts allowed per game), while opponents have the 41st worst shooting efficiency in the entire nation.

I like Mount St. Mary’s defensive bite to get them into the Big Dance, but their fun ride won’t go much further. A date with Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils awaits when the real March Madness tourney fires off, and no amount of defensive aptitude will save them there.

Bet: Mount St. Mary’s (+130)

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Odds

• North Carolina (-170)
• San Diego State (+145)

North Carolina isn’t supposed to be in games like these, but the proud university has to fight just for the chance to take part in March Madness this year. The Tar Heels still enter this game as a -170 favorite and the most obvious bet of the First Four matchups, but winning may not be so easy.

The Tar Heels were a respectable 22-13 on the year with a 13-7 mark in the ACC, but they almost missed a shot at March Madness due to a bad defense and some brutal losses. To their credit, however, they’ve been in fantastic form, with Duke representing their only two losses over their last 10 games.

San Diego State is a worthy foe, as they played for a national title not that long ago, and they feel like a more cohesive bunch. It will be interesting to see which side prevails in a battle of explosive offense and stingy defense.

The Aztecs own the better record (21-9) and a smothering defense (13th in points allowed per game), giving them a chance to advance.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Predictions

San Diego State feels like the trending pick here. They are absolutely going to have a shot here, as their defense is absurdly good and they really don’t give up much of anything.

The Aztecs will come into this one ranking inside the top 20 in numerous defensive categories, but they simply don’t have the offensive upside or star power to take out the Tar Heels. North Carolina has scored at least 71 points in nine of 10 games, and they rank inside the top 100 in the nation in several key offensive categories.

In a classic offense vs. defense battle, I lean North Carolina, as they simply can run through San Diego State in this matchup. The winner will advance to face #6 seed Ole Miss, with a real shot to make it to the second round of the 2025 March Madness tournament.

Bet: North Carolina (-170)

Xavier vs. Texas Odds

• Xavier (-135)
• Texas (+115)

Lastly, we have Xavier (21-11), who was on fire during a seven-game winning streak before losing to Marquette in an 89-87 fire fight just days ago. They nearly had their March Madness papers ready, but will now have to fight Texas for the right to participate in the Big Dance.

Xavier is the rightful favorite based on their recent run, while they’re a rather balanced team that can put up points (59th in scoring), but can also defend at times. 

Texas hasn’t been nearly as impressive, as they went just 19-15 and barely kept their head above water in the extremely difficult SEC. After getting off to a nice 11-2 start earlier in the year, the Longhorns struggled mightily and really never recovered.

The Longhorns did manage to win a couple of games before getting blown out by Tennessee, and now will need to try to slow down a good Xavier team to earn their way to the Big Dance.

Xavier vs. Texas Predictions

There is no denying that both of these teams have had a tough path to get even to the First Four. Texas definitely had the more difficult schedule, and they match up favorably given their explosive offense (78.4 points per game).

The problem? They also allow over 72 points per game, and simply haven’t been able to finish the job countless times during the regular season. In about every single way, Xavier looks like the more complete team, and it’d be a bit shocking if they didn’t live up to their favorite billing in this one.

For whoever wins, a date with #6 seed Illinois awaits in the first round of the March Madness tourney. It’s not an impossible spot, though, and given both team’s offensive ability, I wouldn’t put it past them to keep rolling into round two.

Bet: Xavier (-135)