Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions March 18th 2025

Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks March 18th 2025

At 10:00 ET, the Golden State Warriors (39-29) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (38-29) in a non-conference matchup. The Bucks are favored by 3.5 points and have a moneyline of -161. The over/under line is set at 230.

This game will be played at the Chase Center in San Francisco and can be seen on NBCS.

Bucks vs. Warriors Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors
• Where: San Francisco at Chase Center
• Date: Tuesday, March 18th
• Betting Odds MIL -3.5, MIL -161 | GS +133 O/U 230

The Bucks Can Win If…

The Bucks fell to 38-29 on the season after a 121-105 loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Playing at home, Milwaukee entered the game as +5.5 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game came in at 226, falling short of the 233-point over/under line.

Milwaukee started strong with a 10-0 run, taking the lead early, but they struggled in the 2nd quarter, scoring just 15 points while allowing 29. The Thunder extended their lead to 92-74 by the end of the 3rd quarter, and despite outscoring Oklahoma City 31-29 in the 4th, the Bucks couldn’t close the gap.

The Bucks struggled offensively in their 121-105 loss to the Thunder, shooting just 39.8% from the field. They connected on 13 threes at a 38.2% clip, both marks being average for the team.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists, scoring 8 points in the 3rd quarter. Damian Lillard added 19 points, with 7 coming in the opening period, while Gary Trent Jr. contributed 12 points, hitting 3 threes.

The Bucks struggled defensively in the 3rd quarter, giving up 39 points, which contributed to their 121-105 loss to the Thunder. Overall, Milwaukee allowed Oklahoma City to shoot 51% from the field.

Milwaukee did well in limiting the Thunder’s three-point shooting, holding them to 10 made threes on 34% shooting. The Bucks also recorded 7 steals and 8 blocks in the game.

• Across their ten previous road games, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 3-6-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 5-5 while averaging 111 points per game.
• The Bucks have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• Over their last three games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Warriors Can Win If…

The Warriors fell to 39-29 this season after a 114-105 home loss to the Nuggets on Monday, March 17th. Golden State, who were -11.5 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 219, falling short of the 232.5 O/U line.

Denver took control with an 11-0 run, turning a 36-29 deficit into a 40-36 lead. The Nuggets outscored the Warriors 33-28 in the 2nd quarter and led 89-77 going into the 4th. Golden State won the final quarter 28-25 but couldn’t complete the comeback.

Jimmy Butler III led the Warriors with 23 points and 8 rebounds in their 114-105 loss to the Nuggets, shooting 50% from the field. Stephen Curry added 20 points, though he struggled with his shot, hitting just 28.6% from the field and from three, where he connected on 4 threes.

Gary Payton II contributed 18 points, 11 of which came in the 2nd quarter, shooting 80% from the field and making 2 threes at a 66.7% rate. The Warriors hit just 8 threes as a team, shooting 24.2% from deep, though they shot 48.8% overall.

Defensively, the Warriors gave up 114 points to the Nuggets, who shot 46% from the field. Golden State allowed 29 points in the 1st quarter and 33 in the 2nd but tightened up in the 2nd half, giving up just 27 points in the 3rd and 25 in the 4th.

From beyond the arc, the Warriors held the Nuggets to 14 threes on 35% shooting. Denver also went 14/18 from the free-throw line. Golden State collected 16 steals and recorded 10 blocks in the game.

• The Warriors are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 3-0 straight-up.
• As the betting underdog, the Warriors have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Golden State posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• In their last five games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-3-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re backing the Bucks for a victory, with the projected score at 129-121. Additionally, we favor them to cover the spread, so we recommend placing a bet on the Bucks at -3.5.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 230 and our model has the Bucks and Warriors finishing with a combined 250 points. Our pick is to take the over.

Playoff Positioning at Stake in West Coast Clash

The Milwaukee Bucks (38-29) begin a critical five-game road trip on Tuesday night as they take on the Golden State Warriors (39-29) in San Francisco. Both teams are jockeying for playoff positioning in their respective conferences, with the Bucks tied for fourth in the East and the Warriors battling for a top-six spot in the West.

With the regular season winding down, every game is crucial, and both squads will be looking to bounce back from recent losses. For bettors, this game presents an interesting clash between Milwaukee’s size and Golden State’s perimeter shooting. Evaluating NBA Expert Picks for this matchup means considering the Bucks’ road performance and the Warriors’ ability to contain Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Bucks Enter Must-Win Road Stretch

Milwaukee is coming off a disappointing 121-105 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, where coach Doc Rivers emphasized that his team lacked urgency. With only a one-game lead over the sixth-place Detroit Pistons, the Bucks cannot afford to slip further in the standings.

Antetokounmpo continues to be a dominant force, recording a triple-double against the Thunder with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. He has been on a tear recently, averaging 30+ points in four of his last seven games and securing double-digit rebounds in 10 of his last 12 outings.

However, he missed Milwaukee’s first meeting with Golden State this season due to a calf strain. The Bucks lost that contest 125-111 at home, and they’ll need their superstar at full strength to reverse that outcome.

Milwaukee’s road performance has been inconsistent this season, and with upcoming matchups against playoff-bound teams like the Lakers, Kings, Suns, and Nuggets, they’ll need a strong showing to start this West Coast swing on the right foot.

Warriors Look to Rebound After Costly Loss

Golden State had a prime opportunity to gain ground in the Western Conference standings on Monday but fell 119-103 to the Denver Nuggets. The loss prevented them from creating separation from Minnesota in the race for sixth place.

Stephen Curry played 36 minutes against Denver but struggled to take over the game. Jimmy Butler III and Draymond Green also played heavy minutes, signaling coach Steve Kerr’s focus on winning rather than load management at this point in the season.

Butler has been a solid addition to the Warriors and led the team with 23 points against the Nuggets, marking the first time he paced Golden State in scoring since joining the squad. He was also a key factor in Golden State’s win over Milwaukee in February, contributing 20 points, nine rebounds, six assists, and four steals.

One area of concern for the Warriors is their interior defense. With Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, Milwaukee’s size could cause problems, especially with Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis attacking the paint.

Head-to-Head Matchup & Key Stats

• February 15: Warriors won 125-111 in Milwaukee (Antetokounmpo did not play)
• Giannis’ Last Five Games vs. Warriors: 29.4 PPG average
• Bucks Road Record: 15-17
• Warriors Home Record: 21-12

Golden State’s perimeter shooting was the difference in the first meeting, but Milwaukee will be a different team with Antetokounmpo on the floor.

NBA Team Standings & Trends! – Follow the best teams all season long.

Expert Prediction and Betting Insight

This game will likely come down to whether Milwaukee’s size can dominate the interior or if Golden State’s outside shooting can compensate. The Warriors have been inconsistent defensively, which could open the door for the Bucks to capitalize.

If Antetokounmpo plays at his usual level, Milwaukee will have a significant advantage in the paint. However, if Golden State can push the tempo and create open looks from three, they’ll have a strong chance to secure another home win.

For bettors, Milwaukee’s road struggles and Golden State’s bounce-back potential make this a close call. Monitoring the first quarter could provide insight into how the game will unfold. For more detailed picks, check out our NBA Expert Picks before finalizing your wagers.