Top Five NFL Player Props Picks for Monday Night Football Week 13

It goes without saying that the New England Patriots are one of the more fascinating stories of the 2021 season. Following a year in which Tom Brady bolted, then led Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl title, there were plenty of questions about whether coach Bill Belichick could win in any substantial way without Brady calling the signals.

Well, we have no way of knowing what is going to happen the rest of the way, but those questions are being answered. As of right now, in the wake of the Baltimore Ravens’ loss on Sunday, the Pats are not only the leaders in the AFC East but also the #1 AFC playoff seed.

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In the process of winning six straight games, the Patriots have not exactly lined up against a “Murderer’s Row,” but one must take note that they lost games that could have easily gone the other way against Tampa Bay and Dallas, so with any luck at all, they could have a nine-game win streak.

And this has all happened with a rookie quarterback who was passed over by a lot of teams in the first round.

Read our Patriots vs. Bills betting preview for week 13.

Stefon Diggs Props Picks for Week 13

Best Bet: UNDER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 60.5 Yards (-114) / Under 60.5 Yards (-114)

Diggs eviscerated the New England defense last season as he caught fifteen passes for 237 yards over the two meetings. And you can rest assured that Belichickis going to dedicate part of his defensive game plan to limiting the effect he’s going to have on the festivities.

Of course, Belichick’s reputation is that he is going to often be effective at taking away the weapon with which the opposition can do the most damage, and in this case that would be Diggs. And the guy they’ll call on to help do that is cornerback JC Jackson, who has developed into one of the best in the business, and who is looking for a little payback from last year.

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Mac Jones Props Picks for Week 13

Best Bet: OVER 201.5 PASSING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 201.5 Yards (-114) / Under 201.5 Yards (-114)

The wind conditions might not make things all that agreeable in Orchard Park, but this number is still achievable.

There is no question that the Patriots have changed their offensive approach as the season has progressed. In the first four games, Jones threw the ball 160 times – that’s 40 times per game. In these last four, he’s launched 99 passes, which is right below 25 per contest.

And New England’s rushing play percentage is climbing – the Pats are at 49% over the last three games and 52% in road games. So that is very indicative of where they’re going to be on Monday.

But in nine of twelve games, Jones has topped 200 yards; in the three games that he hasn’t, the Pats have won by a lopsided score. In fact, they beat the Jets, Browns and Panthers in those games by a combined 94-19. Well, the wind may blow out, but this won’t BE a blowout.

Dawson Know Props Picks for Week 13

Best Bet: UNDER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 29.5 Yards (-114) / Under 29.5 Yards (-114)

In the last four games he has played, Knox has caught 13 of the 17 targets that have come his way. So he is a person of value in this Buffalo offense.

One of the things we must consider, however, is that New England is double-tough against opposing tight ends. Over 12 games, they have allowed exactly 29.5 yards per game and less than 54% completions.

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Hunter Henry Props Picks for Week 13

Best Bet: UNDER 25.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 25.5 Yards (-114) / Under 25.5 Yards (-114)

Through the first five games, Henry was targeted 26 times. Over the last seven games, he has been targeted 24 times, with 17 catches for 178 yards. So those are not great numbers. Let’s throw in the fact that Buffalo does a very good job against tight ends themselves, allowing just 38 yards and 3.4 receptions, and then of course we have to remember that Jonnu Smith is playing, so there will be some distribution of those chances between the Patriots’ tight ends.

Rhamondre Stevenson Props Picks for Week 13

Best Bet: OVER 42.5 RUSHING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 42.5 Yards (-114) / Under 42.5 Yards (-114)

As we have mentioned, New England loves to run the football. But they don’t always have the luxury of being able to do it as much as they want. They aren’t always playing from ahead, and they may not be in this instance.

Of course, if the weather demands it, we may see a situation where they are forced to keep the ball on the ground. Damien Harris has had 36 carries the last three weeks, and so if you took that average and applied his 4.2 yards per carry to it, you would be right around this mark.

And he is splitting with Rhamondre Stevenson, who is averaging 5.2 yards a carry over his last four games, but isn’t always guaranteed a lot of carries. As he has been making the most of his opportunities, however, we’d expect that he might get more out of his carries than Harris. The rookie from Oklahoma appears to be the more explosive guy.

Read our NFL player props betting guide and NFL touchdown props betting guide.