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Last week we split out at 2-2, although we thought we encountered some bad luck that we did not do the clean sweep.
This week we apologize but we have to turn to a couple of old favorites, as we pick on teams from the Big Apple (or across the river anyway).
Giants at Chargers Team Totals
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 4:05 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: New York Giants – Over 16 Points (-115) / Under 16 Points (-115)
The Play: GIANTS UNDER 16 POINTS (-115)
Yes, this might have been better if Jake Fromm had to step in and make the start for the Giants, but it looks as if they are expecting Mike Glennon to get cleared from the concussion protocol. But while we know it makes a difference, the question is how much? Nothing dynamic has happened with Freddy Kitchens making offensive calls.
Saquon Barkley isn’t doing anything dynamic.
Kadarius Toney looks as if he is out with a quad injury. Sterling Shepard will play, but Kenny Golladay said that he heard something “pop” in his rib cage last week. It’s like a broken record as it keeps droning on and on for Big Blue.
The best shot for these guys is to try and control the ball on the ground as much as possible. At least the Chargers, who surrender 4.6 yards a carry, will allow that kind of thing to happen. The Giants have been under this total for six of their 12 games, and they’ve scored 32 points over their last three.
49ers at Bengals Team Totals
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: San Francisco 49ers – Over 24.5 Points (-125) / Under 24.5 Points (-105)
The Play: NINERS UNDER 24.5 POINTS (-105)
George Kittle had a dominant outing last week, with 181 yards in receptions. Deebo Samuel is set to come back from a groin injury. Jimmy Garoppolo threw a couple of interceptions against Seattle, but he was also only one yards short of 300 on the day.
But the problem is that Elijah Mitchell, the rookie running back Kyle Shanahan likes so much, is not likely to come out of the concussion protocol in time to play. And they are pretty thin in the backfield beyond that. Jeff Wilson, the projected starter, hasn’t produced much, and they are signing guys off the street. Samuel should see action in the backfield, but he wouldn’t be the “every down” guy.
Understand that only two teams run the ball with a greater percentage of frequency than the Niners do, and if you look at their five lowest rushing totals, you’ll find four scoring totals below 24 points.
So I think we have more value going “under” at the price, as Cincinnati, whose defensive front is fifth in the league in the metric of “Adjusted Line Yards,” could neutralize what they really want to do.
Jaguars at Titans Team Totals
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars – Over 16.5 Points (-115) / Under 16.5 Points (-115)
The Play: JAGUARS UNDER 16.5 POINTS (-115)
According to Pro Football Focus, the Jags are 29th in passing grade and 31st in receiving grade. They drop passes, and that’s not necessarily something you can blame on Trevor Lawrence.
But the rookie quarterback from Clemson called out the coaching staff this week for its mishandling of James Robinson, the running back who is probably their most accomplished offensive player. So that creates more tension and drama.
The Jags have not scored more than 17 points in the last six weeks, during which time they have averaged 10.7 points per game. The offensive philosophy is lacking, as Urban Meyer is finding out that he just can mow down opponents with inferior talent the way he did at Ohio State. And Tennessee can perhaps slow down what they do best, as they have allowed just 87 rushing yards a game over the last seven.
Saints at Jets Team Totals
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: New Orleans Saints – Over 23.5 Points (-115) / Under 23.5 Points (-115)
The Play: SAINTS OVER 23.5 POINTS (-115)
Alvin Kamara is back, and the Saints aren’t just rolling the dice with him. He has been a full participant in practice for three consecutive days, so he will be on hand to haunt the Jets. We are expecting left tackle Terron Armstead to play as well.
You’d figure this Gang Green stop unit might play a little better, with first-year head coach Robert Saleh having developed a reputation as something of a defensive guru. But these guys are allowing more yards per game and per play than anyone, and they have required opponents to gain the least amount of yards per point (bad).
Red flag territory – a couple of players said that the team was preparing for Jalen Hurts and not Gardner Minshew at QB for Philly last week. Minshew proceeded to complete 20 of 25 for 242 yards.
