Illinois Fighting Illini vs Xavier Musketeers Picks and Predictions March 21st 2025

Inconsistent Illinois Looking for Offensive Rhythm vs. Xavier

The Illinois Fighting Illini aim to rediscover their offensive rhythm as they take on the Xavier Musketeers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament South Region on Friday. Both teams are seeking to make a statement as they clash at the Fiserv Forum, hoping to secure a spot in the tournament’s next stage.

Illinois Fighting Illini: Struggling with Consistency

The Fighting Illini (21-12) are making their fifth consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, but their recent form leaves much to be desired. After cruising through a four-game winning streak, Illinois stumbled in the Big Ten tournament, falling to Maryland 88-65 in the quarterfinals. Their inconsistent play throughout the season has left fans and analysts alike wondering which version of the team will show up on Friday.

Head coach Brad Underwood remains focused on bouncing back, emphasizing the urgency of a single-elimination tournament.

“When you lose, you go home,” Underwood said. “The next time we get to do this, we lose, we go home. Hopefully, we learned a lot from Maryland.”

Offensively, Illinois has shown flashes of brilliance, averaging 83.8 points per game with five players scoring in double figures. However, the Illini struggled against Maryland, shooting just 36.5 percent from the field and a dismal 6 of 27 from beyond the arc.

Key Players to Watch:

• Kasparas Jakucionis (Freshman): Leading scorer with 15.0 points per game, Jakucionis needs to find his shooting touch to ignite Illinois’ offense.
• Tomislav Ivisic (Sophomore): The towering 7-1 forward contributes 12.5 points and a team-high 7.7 rebounds per game, providing crucial inside presence.
• Morez Johnson Jr. (Freshman): Back from a broken wrist, Johnson adds 7.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 33 blocks in limited minutes.
• Rebounding Dominance: The Illini rank second nationally with 42.5 rebounds per game, boasting a rebound margin of +8.8..

Xavier Musketeers: Grit and Grind

Xavier (22-11) punched their ticket to the tournament with an 86-80 comeback win over Texas in the First Four on Wednesday. Down by 10 points with just 12 minutes left, the Musketeers rallied with an 8-2 run in the final two minutes to seal the victory.

“The badge of this group, right when you think you’re going to count us out, we win,” said Xavier head coach Sean Miller. “Right when you think things aren’t going to go well, we have found a way.”

Xavier thrives on a balanced offensive attack, averaging 78.3 points per game while allowing 71.2. They boast a solid three-point shooting game, hitting 12 of 25 from deep against Texas.

Key Players to Watch:

• Zach Freemantle (Junior): Leading scorer at 17.2 points per game, Freemantle also contributes 7.0 rebounds per contest.
• Ryan Conwell (Guard): Second-leading scorer at 16.7 points, Conwell is a dynamic guard who can create his own shot.
• Marcus Foster (Guard): Coming off a huge 22-point performance against Texas, Foster shot 8 of 9 from the field, including four treys.
• Dailyn Swain (Forward): Reliable third scorer, averaging 10.5 points per game.

Tactical Battle: Offense vs. Defense

Illinois must reestablish its shooting efficiency and minimize turnovers, as the Illini had 17 giveaways against Maryland compared to the Terps’ three. Xavier’s potent offense will exploit any defensive lapses, particularly if Foster and Freemantle get hot from three-point range.

NCAA Tournament Odds:
Illinois is a slight favorite due to their balanced scoring and rebounding dominance, but Xavier’s ability to heat up from deep makes them a dangerous underdog.

Betting Insights:

• Pick Page: Illinois may have the slight edge, but Xavier’s recent surge makes them an intriguing underdog pick.
• Odds Page: Expect a relatively high-scoring game given both teams’ offensive capabilities.
• Expert Betting Guide: Betting on the over may be worthwhile considering both teams’ scoring potential and Illinois’ recent defensive struggles.

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Historical Context:

Illinois and Xavier have met four times, each team claiming two victories. Their most recent encounter was at the 2018 Maui Invitational, where Xavier emerged victorious. However, this will mark their first meeting in the NCAA Tournament, adding another layer of intensity to this clash.

Final Thoughts:

The Illinois Fighting Illini will need to shake off their inconsistency and put together a complete game to handle Xavier’s resilient offense. Meanwhile, the Musketeers must continue their hot shooting and maintain composure against a physical Illinois team. Both squads have something to prove, and with the stakes at their highest, expect a hard-fought and dramatic battle.