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We want you to remember that when we write these picks up, we’re doing it on a Tuesday. So there could be a whole lot of information that hasn’t come to the surface yet.
We’re talking about things like a player’s availability because of an injury, or a late placement on a COVID-19 reserve list. Or even something like who is going to start over who at quarterback.
Much of that stuff comes out on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. And there could be something that might alter what we normally do. We’re not saying we would go from one side to another, but there could be a factor that would make us less enthusiastic about a particular game and possibly make us come off it.
So watch those injury reports (which are available right here at this site, by the way).
Panthers at Bills Parlay Betting
Panthers vs. Bills Predictions
Time: Sunday, December 19 @ 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Buffalo Bills -11 (-110) vs. Carolina Panthers +11 (-110)
The Play: BILLS -11 (-110)
So let’s review what’s happening with the desperate Bills. They are coming off back-to-back defeats; first against a run-heavy team (Patriots), then one that is pass-heavy (Bucs). And you have to ask yourself if Carolina can do either one of those things. I’m just thinking about this off the top of my head, but it seems Cam Newton has made three starts, all of which the Panthers lost, and he has been benched in two of them. I have that about right, don’t I?
You get to thinking that perhaps the problem with Joe Brady, the now-fired offensive coordinator, was that he really didn’t think there was anything he could do with Newton. Matt Rhule had said that he wanted to run the ball more, and that’s not exactly what happened.
These are the top two defenses in terms of yards allowed per drive. But that may be a little deceiving on the part of the Panthers. Because they can’t move the ball on offense (31st in yards / drive), if it wasn’t for the horrible New York Jets, their stop unit would have the worst average starting point in the NFL.
Cowboys at Giants Parlay Betting
Cowboys vs. Giants Predictions
Time: Sunday, December 19 @ 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (-105) vs. New York Giants +10.5 (-115)
The Play: COWBOYS -10.5 (-105)
One hates to lay double digits on the road, but we wonder if it can be helped. Dallas hung 515 yards on this underachieving defense in the first meeting (a 44-20 blowout). In this one the Giants may start Daniel Jones (neck injury) at quarterback; early indications were that if he can get cleared for contact, he’ll play. But everything else is so listless that maybe it doesn’t matter. Against the Chargers, Mike Glennon went 17 of 36, with six completions to wide receivers. That’s not the way the new de facto offensive coordinator (Freddy Kitchens) drew it up.
Yes, they had some good metrics, like 5.2 yards per carry and 7-of-14 on third down, but a lot of that was in garbage time. These days, all 60 minutes may be considered garbage for Big Blue, but a couple of minutes in particular. Consider this – the Giants have been outscored 59-0 in the last two minutes of the first half this season.
Jets at Dolphins Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, December 19 @ 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Miami Dolphins -8.5 (-110) vs. New York Jets +8.5 (-110)
The Play: DOLPHINS -8.5 (-110)
The Dolphins don’t come off as the kind of offensive contingent that you want to lay a lot of points with. We don’t mean to be cruel, but Tua Tagovailoa is kind of a baby thrower out there; his 6.7 Intended Air Yards per throw is 31st among NFL quarterbacks. But you know, Miami is doing other things right, with five straight wins to put them in the wild card playoff discussion.
We’ve mentioned this before – that Zach Wilson’s draft stock skyrocketed while playing against a schedule that didn’t include any Power 5 teams (I guess Trey Lance fit that description too, huh?). He’s liable to have a hell of a time figuring out all these Miami blitzes. And the kid doesn’t have any personnel around him; he’s been without wide receivers Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, as well as running back Michael Carter. And if you saw Taysom Hill’s uncontested 44-yard TD run last week, you’d know that Robert Saleh, who got the Jets’ head job on the basis of his defensive prowess, should be ashamed of himself.
Texans at Jaguars Parlay Betting
Texans vs. Jaguars Predictions
Time: Sunday, December 19 @ 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) vs. Houston Texans +3 (-115)
The Play: TEXANS +3 (-115)
It’s a rookie quarterback showdown! Well, not really. But Houston’s Davis Mills had 331 yards last week, while Trevor Lawrence was picked off four times. James Robinson, the subject of controversy during the week, had six carries for four yards. Urban Meyer called out his assistants, challenging their resumes (then why did he hire them?). And in a post-game press conference after his team’s 20-0 loss to Tennessee, he was asked about one of his safeties and said he’s been seeing more playing time, when he hadn’t had one snap in the game. This is a fiasco, and on general principles you can’t lay points with them.
Falcons at 49ers Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, December 19 @ 4:05 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 45.5 Points (-110) / Under 45.5 Points (-110)
The Play: OVER 45.5 POINTS (-110)
Might this be a tale of two tight ends? George Kittle has erupted the last two weeks for 332 yards in receptions. Meanwhile, Atlanta rookie Kyle Pitts, with all that ability, has only a 52% catch rate in his last seven games, and that is horrible. The Niners do a great job against tight ends, allowing them just 31 yards a game, so Pitts might be neutralized. Deebo Samuel came back last week and showed he could help in the backfield. Elijah Mitchell is very possible to return this week. The Niners have won four of their last five games.
But it’s not necessarily a cakewalk here. If you look at the Falcons, they have registered their three highest rushing totals in the last three games. That has enabled a better overall offense, obviously. Russell Gage has had 21 catches in 25 targets for 256 yards in these last three games. Cordarrelle Patterson has the highest overall running back grade from Pro Football Focus. After a two-game stretch in which they were outscored 68-3, at least they’re putting up a few points now. And with six wins, they are still involved in the wild card chase. But we do acknowledge that the Niners have scored 28.8 ppg over their last five and are facing a below-average defensive unit.
