Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arkansas Razorbacks Picks and Predictions March 27th 2025

Arkansas Looks to Extend Magical Run Against Texas Tech in Sweet 16

SAN FRANCISCO — What began as a Cinderella story could soon become a historic run, as John Calipari’s 10th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks continue their charge through the 2025 NCAA Tournament. With a stifling defense, renewed energy, and a touch of Calipari magic, the Razorbacks now face third-seeded Texas Tech in Thursday’s West Region semifinal.

After taking down No. 2 seed St. John’s 75-66 in the second round, Arkansas (22-13) is back in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five seasons — and looking far from done.

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“I said just prior to the (St. John’s) game, ‘How about we give ourselves a chance to make some magic?'” Calipari said. “‘Let’s go fight like heck, play free and loose, whatever happens, happens.'”

That message clearly landed. Arkansas held All-American R.J. Luis Jr. to just 3-of-17 shooting and smothered St. John’s from beyond the arc, allowing just 9 percent from deep. The Razorbacks’ defense continues to be their calling card in March.

Calipari Makes History — Again

With the win, Calipari joined elite company, becoming just the third coach ever to take four different programs to the Sweet 16 (Arkansas, Kentucky, Memphis, and UMass), alongside legends Lon Kruger and Eddie Sutton.

For Calipari, this Razorbacks team is a return to his roots — scrappy, underestimated, and surging with belief.

“I’m kind of back to the roots of being an underdog,” he said.

That underdog mentality has turned Arkansas into the lowest remaining seed in the tournament — and arguably its most dangerous.

Red Raiders Relying on Depth and Paint Domination

Texas Tech (27-8) enters the matchup with confidence after methodically dispatching Drake 77-64. The Red Raiders dominated inside, outscoring Drake 50-20 in the paint, just one game after knocking down 13 threes against UNC Wilmington.

J.T. Toppin continues to lead Texas Tech with 18.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game, and just reached the 1,000-point mark for his career. But it’s been Sacramento native Darrion Williams stealing the spotlight in the tournament, putting up 41 points through two games — including 28 against Drake.

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Elijah Hawkins also added his own milestone with his 800th career assist.

“Nobody is playing better than Arkansas right now,” Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland said. “Coach Cal is doing an awesome job of giving them the belief and confidence that they’re going to win.”

McCasland, in his first Sweet 16 as Texas Tech’s head coach, knows the road only gets tougher — especially against a team with nothing to lose.

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Arkansas Gets Offensive Reinforcement

The Razorbacks may get an added boost on offense with the expected return of Adou Thiero, who leads the team with 15.6 points and 6 rebounds per game. Thiero hasn’t played since February due to a back injury, but his return could add yet another layer to Arkansas’ March momentum.

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If the Razorbacks can continue their smothering defensive play while Thiero re-integrates into the rotation, they’ll be a tough out — even for a Texas Tech team with Elite Eight aspirations.

Ready to ride the March Madness momentum? Check out our expert college basketball picks and predictions for smart plays and value bets heading into Thursday’s Sweet 16 action.