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Now that Saturday games are on the schedule, the weeks roll by in a hurry, and here we are, week 16. Week 15 was a good one, a weird one, but a good one. The NFL is struggling to get its act together with the COVID protocol, with who is going to play, with who must sit out, and well, you get the picture. As much as we would like to say, “we hope that is all behind us” we don’t really know this, we can’t say the COVID protocol won’t be used this week.
What we do is take the schedule at face value, we evaluate who\s playing who, and we predict the outcome of the game based on the facts we have about the teams that are facing each other. From time to time, things do change – as they did last week. Stay tuned for any changes.
Last Thursday night, we saw a tough loss for the Chargers and a huge win for the Chiefs. We rarely go to the “bad call” card, we feel that if a team is truly prepared for its opponent, they will indeed win the game, however, there are times when the “bad call” or “non-call” card, must be invoked, and this is one of those times. The Chargers were driving and there was a blatantly missed passing interference call against the Chiefs.
Had the Chiefs been penalized, the Chargers would have easily been in field goal territory and most likely would have ended the game. We get so tired of this stuff but it’s life in the NFL and to be a good handicapper, one must take into account that “NFL favorites” will get the close calls to go their way. It’s the same in the NBA and has been since Jordan played.
The Colts finally beat the Patriots! What a huge win for them and Jonathan Taylor looks like an easy MVP candidate. The Bills made a statement at home against the Panthers, the Cardinals lost yet another one that should have been an easy win against the Lions, the Steelers keep their playoff hopes alive against the Titans, while the Bengals pick up a huge win over the Broncos, and the Ravens screw the pooch by going for a two-point conversion instead of opting to tie the game and send it to overtime. Thought that was all fun… To top off the day, the Saints beat the Buccaneers and Brady, in Tampa, 9-stinking 0! Stick around, this week is going to be even better!
Browns (7-7, 6-8-0 ATS) @ Packers (11-3, 11-3-0 ATS)
Packers -7.5, 46
It’s been a while since the last meeting between these two, December 10 th , 2017, in Cleveland. That one ended in OT, and a Browns win 27-21. We don’t see that happening this time and it has nothing to do with COVID, or which team we like more than the other. This has more o do with the Packers and Aaron Rogers having a mindset to show the NFL they are indeed for real and they should be feared. Last Sunday, Rogers went 23 for 31 with 268 passing yards and three touchdowns, against the Ravens. We must give the Ravens credit for fighting back in that game. They did fight back and could have tied the game, however, in a head-scratching, stump any educated football fan moment – Harbaugh elected to attempt the two-point conversion instead of kicking the extra point and sending the game to OT. None of that changes a thing in terms of this game vs the Browns. We do not yet know if Mayfield will play in this game, in all likelihood, he will, however, he must be cleared by his Dr. on Saturday. If Baker does play, we still like the Packers at home. They are playing great football; playoff football and Rogers is having an MVP season. The Packers could use a tougher jaw on defense, especially down the stretch. We hated the way the defense seemed to get pushed around in the waning moments in Baltimore. We won’t lay the hook; however, the Packers probably cover all day and all night. The Browns are out of synch and it will show in this game.
Pick: -7 Buying the half point, Over 46
Colts (8-6, 9-5-0 ATS) @ Cardinals (10-4, 9-5-0 ATS)
Cardinals -1, 49
Jonathan Taylor is a rock star! This guy is lighting everybody up and Frank Reich has this team looking playoff ready, especially after the butt whipping, they sent the patriots home with! That win had been a long time coming for the Colts and it was no doubt, a confidence builder. The Colts are 9-5 against the spread because they continually play better than any line setter or odds maker in Vegas, which gives them credit for. Vegas is certainly giving them the credit this week, and finally, this thing has come full circle, but are we jumping ahead? Every good team usually hits a rough patch here and there. It would be easy for us to jump on the Cardinal case and point a finger while saying “you’re not that good”. We think that would be a big mistake. The world thought the cardinals would certainly beat the Lions, but you know something, the Lions are not as bad as their record indicates. They have lost more than a few close ones and they are getting better. This matchup between the Colts and Cardinals will be a shootout, and fun and that’s exactly why we think the Cardinal win. The Colts will be forced to keep up and step away from a game plan that has Jonathan Taylor beating the pants off of everyone. The Cardinals can play defense, and they will today.
Pick: Cardinals -1, Over 49
Lions (2-11-1, 9-5-0 ATS) @ Falcons (6-8, 6-8-0 ATS)
Falcons -5.5, 43
As we mentioned above when speaking of the Lions vs Cardinals last week; the Lions are not as bad of a football team as their record indicates. You must remember one thing… An NFL football game is a game of inches and a game of moments that can change the outcome in a blink. Look at the Vikings, they are the perfect example of a team that has rotten luck. Fate has not been on their side this year even though they are indeed better than many teams they have lost to. We are not saying the Lions are better than most of the teams they have lost to this season, what we are saying is this… They are close, and they are a franchise that is working hard to turn its fate around. The Falcons are working hard to get a draft pick! This franchise is a mess. The Lions were a mess and they took action for once in their history, they addressed the problems and made big changes, it will pay off eventually. The Falcons are content with losing! The Falcons allow 27.4 points per game, this stat will cost them this week.
Pick: Lions +5.5. Over 43
Ravens (8-6, 7-7-0 ATS) @ Bengals (8-6, 7-7-0 ATS)
Bengals -3, 45
It’s a miracle the Ravens are 8-6. How they have managed this record is beyond us. Harbaugh is an ego-driven, self-serving, sorry excuse for a coach and until he decided to put his players first, he will never win anything of importance, ever again. The Ravens had the upper hand against the Packers in the waning moments of that football game. They put together a methodical drive and scored the TD that was needed to tie the game – only they didn’t tie the game, they went for two instead of kicking the extra point and giving themselves a 99.9% chance of sending the game to overtime. What Harbaugh did was unexplainable to any reasonable football mind! He should be fired and should have been fired immediately. With the playoffs on the line, and the Steelers having already won its game against the Titans, and the Bengals game looking good, (The Bengals went on to win) – this was a “no-brainer”! The Bengals picked up a huge win against the Broncos and while that may not sound like a big deal (the Broncos are a bit of a mess) it is a big deal. The Bengals know the importance of this game and they want it now more than ever. Burrow, Mixon, and Chase find a way in this game and they are going to want it more. The Ravens are a team built on confusion and opponents are figuring Jackson out. The Bengals defense plays just good enough and the offense carries them over the Ravens.
Pick: Bengals -3, Under 45
Rams (10-4, 7-7-0 ATS) @ Vikings (7-7, 8-6-0 ATS)
Rams -3.5, 49
Cooper Kupp is a sick, sick, sick individual! How sick is this man you ask? 122 receptions on the year for 1625 yards and 14 TDs. That’s how sick he is! This is an MVP kind of season, if he’s not in the talk, not in the hunt… then the MVP award must be done away with. The funny thing is, the Rams are not that convincing. Yes, they pick their spots. The Cardinals win a couple of weeks ago, that was huge. The loss in Green Bay, not so huge, the absolute beatdown in San Francisco, YES, not so much. Even the 20-10 win in Seattle last week, was that impressive? They did their jobs, we give them credit for the win, but would that win convince anybody this team is the real deal? Probably not. What about the Vikings? They beat the Bears last Sunday 17-9, that’s an easy call, they should have beaten the Bears, ok, they beat the Steelers the week before, traditionally, any win against the Steelers is big, it’s a big win, even at home. They lost to Detroit the week before, 27-29, and the 49ers back on the 28th… REMEMBER that Rams loss to the 49ers, we just talked about it? The Vikings picked up the win the week before the 49ers, against the Packers 34- 31. Remember the Packers Rams game, we just talked about it? Do you see where this is going? The Vikings have played below their ability and have been flat out unlucky this season. The cookie has crumbled in favor of the opponent more than once. This team can beat the Rams. Yes, we love Kupp, but we like the Vikings at home, today.
Pick: Vikings +3.5, Over 49
Bills (8-6, 7-6-1 ATS) @ Patriots (9-5, 9-5-0 ATS)
Patriots -2, 43.5
The Bills picked up a big win last Sunday over the Panthers and it was a must. They had to have that game to stay in the playoff chase and for pride. Can they beat the Patriots? They didn’t do it in Buffalo, they lost 14-10. They have lost three of the last five games including two home losses. Back on November 21 st , they lost at home to the Colts, 15-41. That was an ugly game where they forgot about any kind of defense on any level. We said ok, good teams have a bad day every once in a while… They went to New Orleans the next week and beat the Saints up, 31-6, then back home and lost to the Patriots, 10-14, then on to Tampa where they got their butts kicked for a good portion of the game but found a huge chunk of their hearts and mounted a great comeback – they lost 27-33, in OT. Last week they beat the Panthers in Carolina, 31-14. The Patriots have won four of the last five but were beaten by 10-points last week in Indy. The great defense was not there. The Patriots are a good football team and the offense is clicking. Last week was a letdown from a team that has worked very hard to pick up without one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever lived. This week, you will see the Patriots pick it back up and get a much-needed win against the Bills. We like the Bills as a team and they have some great players, but this team is flawed, it’s a coaching problem. Until they fix this problem, the |Bills will be the same old Bills.
Pick: Patriots -2, Under 43.5
Jaguars (2-12, 4-10-0 ATS) @ Jets (3-11, 4-10-0 ATS)
EVEN -110, 41.5
The Jaguars are awful, the Jets are awful, pick your poison! Look, agree or disagree with the decision to fire Urban Meyer. At least the Jaguars care. They care enough to say to their first-year head coach, “this isn’t working, sorry, you have to go”. That’s what they said and it will be a good move because we know the Jaguars won’t be this level of bad, forever. They do have promising young talent. Lawrence was not ready for the NFL, but again, he’s hugely talented and he will evolve. We don’t believe in a thing the Jets do, they are jinxed, they are awful! The Jags have lost five of five and last week to the Texans, to boot, they are 0-6 on the road. They go 0-7. As awful as the Jets are, they find a win this week.
Pick: Jets Even, Over 41.5
Giants (4-10, 6-8-0 ATS) @ Eagles (7-7, 7-6-1 ATS)
Eagles -10, 40.5
The Giants are just about like the across the river counterparts, bad, really bad! A few weeks ago, we thought there was hope for this team, we don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel and honestly, we don’t even see the tunnel. The Giants have lost four of the last five and amazingly enough, their last win came against these Eagles, in the Meadowlands, 13-7. That was it, that is all the Giants have to show over the last five games. The Eagles have won four of the last five games and are playing solid football. The offense is clicking, and the defense has allowed just 18 ppg over the last five. Hurts shines against the Giants and the Eagles win big at home.
Pick: Eagles -10, Over 40.5
Buccaneers (10-4, 7-7-0 ATS) @ Panthers (5-9, 5-9-0 ATS)
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Preview
Buc’s -10, 42.5
The New Orleans Saints proved the world wrong last week with their 9-0 drubbing of Tom Brady. We have said it before and will say it again; Brady is showing his age. He’s still a great player and he still has his shining moments, and we know this, he is a student of the game. He knows how to adjust after a loss and come back the next week. The Panthers are a train wreck! They come in having lost the last four consecutive games. Despite allowing just 22.4 points per game this season, the Panthers have allowed 26 points per game over the last five, including their one win, when they allowed just 10-points to the Cardinals. Over the last four games, the Panthers have allowed 30. Brady may be old, but we don’t care, he’s Tom Brady and he will find a way to bounce back against a team that’s allowing 30 points per game over the last four games.
Pick: Buc’s -10, Over 42.5
Chargers (8-6, 7-7-0 ATS) @ Texans (3-11, 6-8-0 ATS)
Chargers -10.5, 46
We liken the Chargers to the Bills. These two could be twins on offense. The way they play is similar and both are highly inconsistent. The chargers are allowing 26.4 ppg and scoring 27.1 per game. What’s amazing… they have a winning record! Even crazier, they have beaten some decent football teams such as the Bengals and the Steelers. They should have beaten the Chiefs and no doubt, they would have had it not been for a terrible non-call. The Texans are awful but did pick up a rare win on the road against Jacksonville. They lost the three before Seattle, Indianapolis, and the Jets, but beat the brakes off the Titans, in Tennessee! The Chargers pick it up, dust off the madness of a frustrating loss to the Chiefs, and get the big win in Houston. Herbert is having a beyond fantastic year with 4058 yards passing, 32 TDs, and 12 INTs. We hate the Chargers defense, it’s not a bit good, but that doesn’t matter against the Texans!
Pick: Chargers -10 buying the hook, Over 46
Bears (4-10, 4-10-0 ATS) @ Seahawks (5-9, 7-7-0 ATS)
Seahawks -6.5, 42.5
The Seahawks have been a disappointing football team this season. They are even bad at home, and that’s rare. This team has been known for its toughness in Seattle, but this year is an exception to the rule. The team is playing fairly good defense and allowing just 20.1 points per game, as are the Bears allowing the same, 20.1 points per game, The Seahawks still have Wilson, and they still have a few weapons in the tank, Lockett is a big-time receiver with 1023 yards on just 62 receptions, along with 5 TDs. The Bears are a broken football club and they must clean house. Nagy is not the guy; he needs to be fired. A leader is only as good as the team he assembles – they all need to go. Fields is awful with 7 TDs and 10 INTs. Montgomery is a solid back with 668 rushing yards and 4 TDs, and Mooney is a decent receiver with 803 yards on 57 receptions and 3 TDS. It won’t be enough. This Bears team is prone to mistakes and they are in disorder.
Pick: Seahawks -6.5, Under 42.5
Steelers (7-6-1, 6-8-0 ATS) @ Chiefs (10-4, 7-7-0 ATS)
Chiefs -8.5, 45
The Steelers are a football team in transition, and still in playoff contention this season. Ben Roethlisberger is listed as questionable for this game. Without Ben, can they win in KC? Maybe the better question is, can they win with him? Is this version of the Steelers leaving Ben behind? We see that Ben is having a down year but is he really? Sure, Mahomes has 4052 yards, 30 TDs, and 13 INTs on the year, does this stack up against Big Bens’ 3214 yards, 19 TDs, and 7 INTs? It has to, in reverse. Think about this… Roethlisberger has been slinging it since 2004 and has two Super Bowl wins. He would no doubt have more if it were not for Tomlin. He has won despite Tomlin. Big Ben still has the want – to go out there on Sunday and get it done, Tomlin doesn’t have the drive to be the kind of head coach an older quarterback needs. How does this translate to this game against Mahomes and the Chiefs, in Arrowhead? The Chiefs have all the weapons and they should be winning games, this is no secret. The Steelers are allowing 23.9 ppg, but scoring just 20.8 per game. All the weapons that Mahomes has, Roethlisberger lacks. As much as we like Ben’s heart, he doesn’t have the help to win these kinds of games as he did in the past, and he needs a head coach that gets it.
Pick: Chiefs -8.5, Over 45
Broncos (7-7, 7-7-0 ATS) @ Raiders (7-7, 5-9-0 ATS)
EVEN -110, 41
The Broncos are another team that needs to send its head coach and offensive coordinator packing. They are scoring 20.4 ppg and we realize Peyton has left the building, but really? This is not the kind of offense that Broncos fans have come to love and respect. The defense is better without Von Miller, and allowing just 17.4 ppg, but it’s not enough to beat teams like the Bengals that only put up 15-points, in Denver! That’s right, the Bengals were held to 15-pointS last Sunday, but the sorry offense for this Broncos squad couldn’t find a way to win. CLEAN HOUSE Now that Elway is no longer in control, CLEAN HOUSE! The Raiders are not a lick better! They come in having lost three of the last five which includes a blowout loss in Kansas City, 9-48. The Raiders will not be what they could have been until they find a great head coach that can build a system that works. They had that coach to start the year, but he was fired!
Pick: 7-Point Teaser Broncos +7, Over 35
Washington (6-8, 5-8-1 ATS) @ Cowboys (10-4, 11-3-0 ATS)
Cowboys -10.5, 47
The Cowboys are 11-3 against the spread and Washington is 3-4 on the road this year. Has Washington learned from the past? When we say past, we mean two weeks ago. This Washington team has won three of the last five games and when they took on the Cowboys on December 12th, we thought they had had a good chance to win the game. It didn’t happen; however, Washington did mount a comeback in that game to make it respectable and the final score ended at 27-20, Cowboys. Washington lost on Sunday, to the Eagles, 17-27. As much as we like the Cowboys to win this game at home, a game they have proven they can win, we like Ron Rivera’s ability to adjust. We think he keeps it closer than -10.5 but we are not confident enough to put money on it! Remember, the Cowboys are 11-3 against the spread. Washington is 5-8-1 against the spread.
Pick: 7-Point Teaser Washington +17.5, Under 53
It’s Christmas baby, and it may be cold outside or it may be warm and sunny. Wherever you are we hope that you enjoy the holiday weekend and we certainly hope that you enjoy two great games on Christmas day, and the full lineup on Sunday. There will be some close ones, there will no doubt be some nail biters and there are plenty of games to win a small fortune on. Be sure to check with your offshore bookmaker for the latest changes to the lines and odds, ask for a great NFL bonus, and have fun. Merry Christmas.
