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The NBA offers a nice lineup for this Monday evening and five great games that we can get behind in one fashion or another. We focus on five categories, the best money line of the evening {this means out of all the games on the schedule tonight, which game do we prefer to not bet against the spread, which game do we see as a win, but possibly not a cover? – That’s our favorite money line bet}.
We also give you what we consider to be our best pick against the spread. We don’t like to lay more than 3-points, however, the parity in the NBA is not the same as it is in the NFL. Yes, any team can theoretically beat any team, however, if you are a close follower of the NBA and you enjoy betting on any level, then you know that big point spreads do indeed cover, and often. Last week, we took the Warriors -13.5 to beat the Kings, sure enough, we got the cover.
Two weeks ago, we took the Suns to cover 8.5, we lost! The Suns won the game but didn’t cover. When betting on the NBA, it’s important to look at the games and do some math. Who’s hot? The NBA is a streaky league and when teams get hot, they can be hard to beat. This makes them a great value on the money line, but not necessarily on the point spread. What you must remember when you are betting the point spread is the fact that you are fighting with Vegas. The line setters and oddsmakers tend to overvalue hot teams, this makes betting the underdog, the value bet.
We are here to do the homework for you. Hopefully, we can win you some money. We certainly won’t hit every bet we place but if we can reel in a couple, we have accomplished something! Find a fantastic offshore sportsbook, (they don’t charge fees, taxes, or commission, and they pay quickly). Have an offshore bookie along with your domestic bookmaker, this way you can run competition between the two.
Best NBA Point Spread Pick for December 27th
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Prediction
For this bet, we are looking at the Mavericks @ Trail Blazers. The spread is even money. For anyone that doesn’t know – “even money” means there is not a -/+ number – there is not a set favorite or underdog in this game. The oddsmakers looked at this game, they ran the algorithm, and what they came up with is “too close to call”. Vegas sees this game going either way. As we said above, we tend to pick teams that are on a streak or that are hot and playing well.
We also tend to bet against teams that are struggling, but remember, one must be careful to not fall into the “Vegas trap” when teams are hot, Vegas will often place too much value on them. Portland has not played a basketball game in 6-days! They have had time to rest, time to regroup, and get back after it. Opening at home against the Mavericks who have lost four of the last five is value. Lillard is listed as day-to-day, but that means “will play” 90% of the time. The Blazers are NOT going to win a championship this year and they are not a great team; however, the Mavericks are struggling and with rest, the Blazers will not lose this game at home.
Best Bet: Portland Trail Blazers PK (-110)
Best NBA Money Line Pick for December 27th
Out of the seven games on the NBA lineup tonight, who gives us the best value on the money line, who is it that we would pick out of the lineup tonight and say “they for sure win the game? Who is the team that gives us this value? We must take the Spurs. If there is any team that we most definitely like to win, but possibly the opponent keeps the score close, it would be the Spurs at home, playing the Jazz.
The Jazz are looking for their fourth straight win, however, the Spurs have turned their fate around and they are looking for their fifth win over the last six games, and three of those wins have come on the road. The Spurs are playing great basketball, and we think they pick up the win at home. We are not taking the points at +6.5, because that bet pays -110, we want to double our money and we can’t make a case for Utah winning this game.
Best Bet: Spurs Money Line (+220)
Best NBA Over/Under Pick for December 27th
The Suns have won four of the last five games and have compiled a 26-6 season record because they are playing lights-out defense. Over the last five games, they have managed to hold their opponents to 102.2 points per game. Tonight, they are hosting the Memphis Grizzlies who have lost three of the last five games – on the 19th against Portland, 105-100, on the 20th, against OKC, 102-99, and on the 23rd at Golden State, 113-104. They beat the Kings in Sacramento back on the 17th, 124-105, then beat the Kings again last night, 127-102. Over the two wins in the last five games played, the Grizzlies have averaged 125.5 points per win.
They have allowed 103.5 points per game. We love the Suns to win this game tonight and we think it’s highly likely they cover the spread at 8 points. When Memphis loses, they average 101 points per game (last 3 losses) – When the Suns win, they average 119 points per game (last 4 wins). The points total in this game is 220.5. Our math says this game goes to 220, but we do not think the Suns blow out the Grizzlies 119-101. YES, the Suns win the game and very possibly cover the -8, but we will give the Grizzlies credit for slightly more than 101-points tonight. We see a 122-113 kind of game.
Best Bet: Grizzlies/Suns Over 220.5
Best Parlay Bet for December 27th
Rockets vs. Hornets Prediction / Bulls vs. Hawks Prediction
The Hornets have hit the skids and they are playing the Rockets who are not a lick better! They are worse! The Rockets have lost three of the last five games and they have been blown out in all three of the losses. The three-game losing streak started in Chicago with a 113-118 loss, a 126- 106 loss, and then a loss in Indy, 118-106. The Hornets picked up a win against Denver on the 23rd, 115-107, their last win before the three losses, came against the Spurs on the 15th, 131-115.
We think both teams are so bad on defense but have such remarkably great shooting (at least huge spurts of shooting greatness) this game flies over the total of 235.5. We like the Bulls to win the game tonight against Atlanta, however, we are not willing to bet the spread on the road, so, once again, we go to the total. We know the Bulls can play defense, they have proven it and their defense is why they are 20-10. Tonight, in Atlanta, we think this one could be close, and in a close game, between these two, we have to like over 208.
Parlay Bet: Rockets/Hornets Over 235.5 / Bulls/Hawks Over 208
Best NBA Prop Pick for December 27th
We love the Suns to come out hot and fast, everything they shoot goes and they will light it up in the first half.
Grizzlies/Suns 1st Half: Over 107
We hope you have a great new year, kick the old to the curb, and start fresh. It’s time to leave 2020-2021 behind, leave the pandemic behind, leave the lockdown behind, and leave the mess and the masks’ behind. It’s time to look to the future. We all have so very much to be thankful for and no matter how hard you think life may be, there is somebody that has it worse than you.
Most of all, have fun. Bet the NBA with wild abandon and have fun. Forget the politics of the game and the politics of the day. Have fun watching and betting on a great sport with great platers. We hope you win tonight, but most of all, we hope you win in 2022. We hope you have your best year ever, at whatever you put your mind to. HAPPY NEW YEAR!
