Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Picks and Predictions April 22nd 2025

Lightning vs Panthers Playoff Preview 2025: ‘Battle of Florida’ Returns to the Ice

Two bitter Sunshine State rivals meet again — and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers are gearing up for their fourth playoff collision in five seasons, reigniting what has become one of the NHL’s fiercest modern rivalries. Game 1 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series drops Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. ET in Tampa, in what promises to be a fiery installment of the Battle of Florida.

In previous postseason encounters, Tampa Bay claimed victory in both 2021 and 2022, but the Panthers struck back last spring, eliminating the Bolts in five games on their road to the Stanley Cup championship.

Looking to stay sharp with postseason picks? Visit the NHL Picks Page for expert insight and predictions.

Rivalry Renewed: What’s at Stake

The Lightning come into the playoffs riding momentum and boasting one of the NHL’s best home records (29-8-4), while the Panthers are looking to shake off a sluggish 7-10-1 finish down the stretch.

Despite their inconsistent close to the regular season, Florida is still a serious Cup contender, thanks to depth, defensive toughness, and high-end star power returning to the ice.

Let’s break down how both teams are looking ahead of this highly anticipated Game 1 showdown.

Panthers’ Road to Redemption

Perhaps the biggest question mark heading into this series was the health of Matthew Tkachuk. Out since Feb. 8 with a lower-body injury suffered at the 4 Nations Face-Off, the fiery forward has been on long-term injured reserve for nearly two months.

But the signs are encouraging.

Tkachuk skated on Saturday during full practice, lining up alongside Mackie Samoskevich and Sam Bennett on Florida’s second line. Coach Paul Maurice expressed optimism about the chemistry and physicality that trio can bring.

Missing Pieces

The Panthers will be without Aaron Ekblad for at least Games 1 and 2 as he finishes a 20-game PED suspension. That’s a massive hole on the blue line. Meanwhile, Florida’s forward depth will be tested early with Brad Marchand — acquired at the deadline — skating on the third line in practice.

Explore full Panthers team stats on the NHL Team Page

Key Stats

• Final 18 games: 7-10-1
• Top scorer: Aleksander Barkov – 20 goals, 51 assists
• Faceoff Win %: Barkov at 56.5%

Lightning’s Confidence Surge

Tampa Bay finished the season with 292 goals — the most in the NHL, averaging a blistering 3.56 goals per game.

• Brayden Point: 42 goals
• Jake Guentzel (midseason trade): 41 goals
• Nikita Kucherov: 121 points (37 G, 84 A), Art Ross Trophy winner

Kucherov’s performance, particularly in high-stakes matchups, has set the tone for the Lightning’s explosive attack. And with Guentzel adding another elite scoring threat, this top-six forward group is as lethal as ever.

Vasilevskiy: The X-Factor

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was in top form late in the year, finishing with:

• 38-20-5 record
• 2.18 GAA
• .921 SV%
• 6 shutouts

He’s expected to go head-to-head with Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, who went 33-19-2 with a 2.44 GAA, .905 SV%, and 5 shutouts. While both goalies have playoff pedigree, Vasilevskiy’s resume (including a Conn Smythe Trophy and multiple deep runs) gives Tampa a clear edge in net.

For betting analysis on goalie matchups, check the NHL Odds Page

Injury Update

Coach Jon Cooper confirmed that Oliver Bjorkstrand — acquired from Seattle at the deadline — will miss the entire series due to a lower-body injury. Tampa will rely more heavily on bottom-six contributors to maintain scoring depth.

Ice-Cold Profits Await

Get NHL Betting Picks

Get Free Trial

Series History: Battle of Florida at a Glance

• 2021: Lightning won series 4-2
• 2022: Lightning swept Panthers 4-0
• 2023: Panthers won 4-1 (en route to Cup)
• 2024: Regular season split — 2-2

While Tampa has had the historical edge, Florida is the reigning champion and proved last year that it can beat the Lightning in high-stakes scenarios.

Dive into historical playoff trends on the NHL Expert Betting Guide

Game 1 Preview: What to Watch

Lightning Keys to Win:

• Win special teams battles
• Get early scoring from Kucherov or Point
• Force Florida’s bottom-six to beat them
• Vasilevskiy must continue elite play

Panthers Keys to Win:

• Tkachuk must produce, even at less than 100%
• Bobrovsky needs to outduel Vasilevskiy
• Win the physicality battle
• Stay disciplined, avoid Tampa’s deadly power play

Read Stanley Cup Odds & Predictions for long-term outlooks

FAQs

When is Lightning vs Panthers Game 1?
Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. ET in Tampa.

Who is the top scorer in this matchup?
Nikita Kucherov of Tampa Bay with 121 points.

Is Matthew Tkachuk playing in Game 1?
Tkachuk has resumed practicing and is expected to play on the second line.

Who has the edge in goaltending?
Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy has better numbers and deeper playoff experience than Bobrovsky.

What happened the last time they met in the playoffs?
Florida beat Tampa Bay 4-1 in the first round of the 2023 playoffs.

Final Take: Lightning vs Panthers Playoff Preview

The Battle of Florida never disappoints, and 2024 looks like the most unpredictable chapter yet.

Tampa Bay enters with firepower and home-ice advantage, but Florida’s recent playoff success and Tkachuk’s return inject new energy into this fierce rivalry. With elite goaltending on both sides and superstars ready to shine, expect Game 1 to set the tone for a dramatic, tightly contested series.

Need help breaking down every series? Head to the NHL Blog for division-by-division predictions.