We’re going to analyze NFL week 13 opening lines and compare them to the current betting odds.
We had a full slate of NFL games last week for Thanksgiving. We almost have a full slate again this week, as only two teams (Cardinals and Panthers) are on a bye week.
NFL Week 12 Betting Recap
Favorites went 6-8-1 ATS (Bengals vs. Titans closed at a PK) in week 12. On the season, favorites are now 76-96-6 ATS. The over/under record last week was 7-8-1 (O/U Season Record: 76-100-3).
Five underdogs won straight-up (Jaguars, Panthers, Browns, Raiders and Steelers).
Analyzing NFL Week 13 Line Movement
We’ll now look at all of the early line movements for NFL week 13 games.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Opening Spread: Bills -6 / Current Spread: Bills -5
Opening Total: 45.5 Points / Current Total: 43.5 Points
The Bills are 0-2 in AFC East games, but 3-0-1 ATS in the last four H2H games at Foxborough.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Opening Spread: Lions -1 / Current Spread: Lions -1
Opening Total: 48.5 Points / Current Total: 51.5 Points
The Jags are 1-4 (1-4 ATS) on the road, while the Lions are 4-2 ATS at home this season.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
Opening Spread: Commanders -1 / Current Spread: Commanders -1.5
Opening Total: 42 Points / Current Total: 40.5 Points
The Giants are 8-3 ATS this season and 5-2 ATS in the last seven H2H meetings.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Opening Spread: Packers -2.5 / Current Spread: Packers -2
Opening Total: 43.5 Points / Current Total: 42.5 Points
The Packers are 7-0 (7-0 ATS) in the last seven H2H games against the Bears.
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings
Opening Spread: Vikings -3.5 / Current Spread: Vikings -3
Opening Total: 41 Points / Current Total: 45.5 Points
The Jets are 4-1 (4-1 ATS) on the road. The Vikings are 5-1 at home, but only 3-3 ATS.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Opening Spread: Browns -5.5 / Current Spread: Browns -7
Opening Total: 44.5 Points / Current Total: 46.5 Points
The Browns have won two games by more than a touchdown this season, but they’re tough to trust.
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Spread: Eagles -6.5 / Current Spread: Eagles -5.5
Opening Total: 44.5 Points / Current Total: 44.5 Points
The Titans are 8-3 ATS and an impressive 5-1 ATS on the road. Philly could win, but fail to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Opening Spread: Falcons -1.5 / Current Spread: Falcons -1.5
Opening Total: 42 Points / Current Total: 42 Points
There has been no line movement yet. Atlanta are 4-2 at home and Pittsburgh are 1-4 on the road.
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens
Opening Spread: Ravens -6.5 / Current Spread: Ravens -8
Opening Total: 40.5 Points / Current Total: 38.5 Points
Baltimore are 0-4-1 ATS at home this season and will likely struggle to cover such a big spread.
Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers
Opening Spread: 49ers -4.5 / Current Spread: 49ers -3.5
Opening Total: 46.5 Points / Current Total: 46.5 Points
The Dolphins have won five games in a row and the 49ers have won four games in a row.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Opening Spread: Seahawks -3 / Current Spread: Seahawks -5
Opening Total: 41.5 Points / Current Total: 40.5 Points
The Rams are 1-5 ATS at home and have lost five consecutive games.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Spread: Chargers -3 / Current Spread: Chargers -2
Opening Total: 50.5 Points / Current Total: 50.5 Points
The Chargers are 3-1 (3-1 ATS) in the last four H2H games against the Raiders.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Opening Spread: Chiefs -3 / Current Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Opening Total: 51 Points / Current Total: 52.5 Points
The Chiefs are 9-2, but only 4-6-1 ATS. The Bengals are tied for first with a record of 8-3 ATS.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys
Opening Spread: Cowboys -8.5 / Current Spread: Cowboys -9.5
Opening Total: 43.5 Points / Current Total: 43.5 Points
The Cowboys are 5-1 (4-2 ATS) at home. These teams have a combined O/U record of 7-15.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening Spread: Buccaneers -6.5 / Current Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Opening Total: 39.5 Points / Current Total: 40 Points
Tampa Bay are 3-7-1 ATS and the Saints are 4-8 ATS. It’s tough to trust either team to cover on MNF.