NBA Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) Explained

If you already know a thing or two about basketball, the chances are that you’re familiar with estimated plus-minus (EPM). However, not enough bettors know how to use EPM to enhance their chances of winning money.

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In this guide, we cover everything you need to know about estimated plus-minus. Not only do we highlight all the key info about EPM, but we also explain how bettors can utilize EPM to aid their NBA wagers.

What is Estimated Plus-Minus?

Estimated plus-minus is an all-in-one basketball metric that estimates a player’s contribution to a team. The metric is calculated using a player’s on-court plus-minus impact per 100 possessions.

It is worth noting that EPM is both retrodictive and predictive. A weighed sum will approximate team ratings, meaning EPM correlates with win percentage statistics. It also provides information about a team’s future performance when a player is on the court.

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EPM was created by Taylor Snarr, a basketball data analyst. Snarr claims that, when compared to other advanced basketball metrics, EPM has the smallest margin of error.

Thanks to Snarr’s creation, bettors can use EPM to aid their research on the NBA and other basketball leagues. Keep reading to find out how you can take your basketball betting to the next level with EPM.

How NBA Bettors Can Utilize EPM

As we already mentioned, estimated plus-minus is both a retrodictive metric and a predictive metric. Accordingly, bettors can utilize EPM data in multiple ways, boosting their chances of making a profit in the long run.

By looking back at EPM stats, bettors can gauge which players have the biggest impact on their team. Since EPM keeps track of the net changes in the score when a player is either on or off the court, you can see which players make the biggest difference.

NBA Predictions

The best NBA betting markets for EPM include player props, totals, spreads and even moneylines. EPM is a useful all-round player metric, meaning you can use it to aid your bets in several key areas.

It is worth remembering, however, that estimated plus-minus has its drawbacks. For example, EPM can find it difficult to confound a player’s performance with the performance of their teammates while on the court.

That said, EPM can be a helpful tool for all NBA bettors. If you already bet on basketball but want to up your game, why not try to incorporate EPM and see where it takes you?

Learn how player impact estimate works in the NBA next.