Soccer Expected Points (xP) Explained

There are many different tools that soccer bettors can utilize to aid their wagers. Today, we want to explain how the expected points (xP) model can help you elevate your bets and increase your profit margin.

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In recent years, several advanced soccer metrics have emerged on the scene. Regular soccer fans will ignore these metrics, but smart bettors can use modes like xP to gain an edge over the bookies.

What is Expected Points (xP) in Soccer?

The expected points model measures how many points a team could have expected to take from a match. The xP figure is calculated by combining the scoring opportunities that are created and conceded in that game.

Put simply, the more dominant a team is, the more xP they will amass. On the flip side, less dominant teams accumulate lower xP figures because they tend to create fewer opportunities and concede more chances.

In soccer, teams are awarded three points for a win, one point for a draw and zero points for a loss. It is very rare that a team would accumulate the entire 3xP from a game, and it is also rare that a team would finish with 0xP.

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How to Calculate Expected Points (xP) in Soccer

Although different analytical companies produce their own expected points data using slightly different models, the basics behind the calculations remain the same across the board.

Here are the three fundamental steps used to calculate xP:

1. Collect all expected goals (xG) values taken and conceded through the game.

2. Simulate the match thousands of times to calculate the probability of each team winning, drawing or losing, based upon shots taken and conceded.

3. Use the probabilities to work out how many points a team could have expected to collect for that game.

Essentially, the xP model tells us how many points a team deserved to earn, regardless of the final result of the game.

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How Bettors Can Utilize xP in Soccer

Although oddsmakers use metrics like xP and xG when it comes to setting their prices, bettors can use the expected points model to get the better of the bookies if their research is on point.

You can find xP tables online that will aid your soccer bets. These tables place teams based upon their xP data rather than their actual points, meaning you can see where a team should be in relation to where they would deserve to be given their performances.

Expected points can be useful for bettors looking to back underdogs. If an underdog has strong underlying numbers and the favorite is not in good form, you could back the less-favored team based upon the xP data.

Read our Asian handicap betting guide next.