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We’re going to explain how the Fenwick metric works in the NHL. Modern-day NHL fans and bettors have access to a seemingly endless number of advanced statistics and metrics. Still, it could be argued that Corsi and Fenwick are the original advanced stats.
If you want to learn everything there is to know about Fenwick, we’ve got you covered. Below, we explain how Fenwick works in hockey, how to calculate Fenwick and how bettors can utilize the metric to support their wagers.
How Does Fenwick Work in Hockey?
The Fenwick metric is named after Matt Fenwick, a Calgary Flames fan from Alberta. In November 2007, he published a blog post suggesting that Corsi should not factor in blocked shots, which he considered to be either unreliable indicators of true scoring chances or of inferior quality compared to unblocked shots.
As a solution, he introduced a novel statistic that excluded blocked shots and was subsequently named after him. Over time, this statistic has developed into an advanced analytical tool frequently employed in assessing scoring chances in conjunction with Corsi.
Essentially, Fenwick is used to measure shot attempt differential while playing at even strength. Also known as unblocked shot attempts (USAT) by the NHL, the statistic includes shots on goal and missed shots on goal, but does not include blocked shot attempts.
How to Calculate Fenwick
Due to the similarity between the two statistics, Fenwick and Corsi often get confused with one another. However, the difference is clear when you look at the formula for Fenwick, which does not include blocked shots.
Fenwick = (Shots on Goal FOR + Missed Shots FOR) – (Shots on Goal AGAINST + Missed Shots AGAINST)
It is worth noting that Fenwick For can be presented as a percentage, which is often referred to as FF%. This relates to the percentage of all the total unblocked shot attempts produced by the team and their opponents.
How Can NHL Bettors Utilize Fenwick?
Fenwick serves as a valuable metric for gauging a team’s offensive puck control during a game. A positive Fenwick value signifies that a team spends more time in the offensive zone compared to the defensive zone, while a negative Fenwick value suggests that a team is more frequently stuck in the defensive zone rather than the offensive zone.
Therefore, utilizing Fenwick to measure possession is advantageous because teams with higher possession numbers typically have a higher likelihood of winning games.
When it comes to measuring a team’s quality, Fenwick is regarded as one of the most effective ways to predict future success. This is due to its potential as a superior indicator of high-quality shot opportunities when compared to Corsi.
Ultimately, NHL bettors can use Fenwick to aid a multitude of markets. From moneylines and totals to props and futures, bettors can apply Fenwick figures to several wager types in order to gain an edge over the bookies.
