Betting 2020 NBA Playoff Specials

The NBA is ready to get back to work after the long coronavirus layoff. The plan to resume play in the NBA will bring 22 teams to the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando to finish an eight-game regular season and a potential play-in tournament before embarking on its postseason.

With the return to play set for July 31, it’s time to examine the NBA betting board, which is loaded with specials. From a number of Zion Williamson wagers to bets on where teams will stay, there is money to be made.

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Betting on Zion

There are five bets on the board that revolve around the NBA’s most star-studded rookie.

The first three are related to Williamson’s stat line. The Pelicans rookie only played in 19 games thus far due to injury. He averaged 23.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. 

You can bet the Over/Under on all three:  Points-24.5, Rebounds-7.5, and Assists-2.5. The issue is that all the bets are priced the same at -115.

The best bet on Williamson is the Over/Under on the number of triple-doubles he will record. The former Duke star has yet to record one, but he has the skills to do so. He has had only one double-digit rebound game and his high for assists is five. Still, you have to like the Over 0.5 odds at +300.

The only other bet on Williamson is to win the Finals MVP (+12500). The Pelicans would have to get there first and that just doesn’t seem likely.

The Draft

Georgia’s Anthony Edwards is the presumptive first pick in what is considered a rather weak NBA draft.

Edwards is favored at -130 to go No. 1. Golden State, by virtue of its NBA-worst record, has the highest odds of obtaining that first pick. The NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for August 25.

The big question is whether the Warriors would trade the first overall pick in an effort to rebuild the franchise. If they do, then one bet makes a ton of sense. The New York Knicks love the skill set of point guard LaMelo Ball, younger brother of New Orleans’ Lonzo.

Ball is an easy 6-foot-7 with passing skills like his brother, but he is a more accomplished playmaker and shooter. Plus, at +300 to go No. 1, Ball is about the only value pick bettors can realistically find in this draft.

Best Specials Bet

Where bettors can find the best value on NBA specials is on which team will be the 8th seed in the NBA East and West conference.

In the East, Brooklyn is currently a half-game ahead of No. 8 Orlando. Washington (+900) isn’t going to happen. The Wizards are 5.5 games out of eighth place and simply do not have what it takes.

A better scenario is Brooklyn, minus a Kevin Durant and/or Kyrie Irving return, ending up being overtaken by the Magic (-250). The safe bet is Orlando, but the Magic would surely rather face No. 2 Toronto than No. 1 Milwaukee in the postseason. And, Brooklyn checks in at plus-money at +300.

The Western Conference is where the real action is.

Five teams are within six games of current No. 8 Memphis. You can throw out Phoenix and San Antonio. The Spurs just announced that LaMarcus Aldridge is done for the season. He will undergo shoulder surgery.

Sacramento at +1200 is intriguing. The Kings went 13-7 in their last 20 games before the COVID-19 shutdown. They have a talented backcourt with De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, but just don’t seem likely to advance.

Memphis is favored at -185 to hold onto the No. 8 seed, but during the regular season thus far the Grizzlies went a combined 2-5 against New Orleans, Portland, and Sacramento.

The Pelicans (+350) were No. 7 in the NBA in net rating since Jan. 22. That is when Williamson entered the lineup, but New Orleans was just 10-9 in those games and just 3-7 against teams with a winning record.

The real value bet here is on Portland. The Trail Blazers (+275) have the strong backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum and they will get Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic back from injury. More importantly, Portland holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Sacramento. 

Where Will They Stay?

Bettors can actually wager on where teams will stay while in Orlando. The Bucks, for example, are favored to stay at Universal’s Lowes Royal Pacific Resort (+200). The Margaritaville Resort is more of a longshot at +700 to house the Bucks.

I would stick with the bets on the 8th seeds. It’s been rumored that all teams will stay at the Pop Century Resort. The location is perfect and it has 2,880 rooms.