How a COVID-19 Shortened MLB Season Affects 2020 MLB Futures

After a month of negotiations, the MLB Players Association rejected the league’s proposal to return to play in 2020. The MLBPA instead counteroffered with their own proposal which included more games and stretches the season into late October.

With all the talk of how the league will resume the season, MLB bettors might want to reexamine their futures bets. There are a number of factors that could have a big effect on the results of the 2020 season.

The Schedule

So, MLB proposed a shortened 82-game schedule with fears of the coronavirus in mind. Teams would play a more regional schedule, playing teams in their division plus their closest neighbors out of their division. This would cut down on travel.

Teams would also be permitted a 30-man roster (up from 26) and a 20-player taxi squad made up primarily of minor leaguers whose seasons have been cancelled. The idea behind the league’s proposal was to get to the postseason as fast as possible and miss a feared second wave of the virus. The MLB postseason would also include one extra team per league for a total of 14 teams. 

The players association didn’t like the league’s idea and proposed more games – 114 specifically – and the biggest item – no more pay cuts.

The MLB and the MLBPA agreed in March to a deal where players would receive prorated salaries. The MLB’s 82-game deal would cut players’ salaries even more. The players’ union favors more games which, of course, results in a higher percentage of salaries.

Regardless, the final number of games agreed upon will play a role in the results of the 2020 season.

Short Season Favors Hitters

The league has also said it could force players into a 50- or 60-game regular season. Whether it is 50 or 82, a shorter season will favor hitters. Pitchers report to spring training early for a reason. It takes them more time to get prepared for an upcoming season.

With all this time off due to the coronavirus, hitters will be way ahead of pitchers when the season resumes. That means some underdog teams with deep batting lineups are worthy of a look.

For example, in the NL Central Division race, the Cubs and Cardinals are favored to win the division as +190 favorites.

There’s value in Cincinnati at +210 though because of their new, improved lineup. The Reds added 2B Mike Moustakas, OF Nick Castellanos, and former Japanese star OF Shogo Akiyama. Our other writer Scott agrees with the Reds, check out his article top three best bets in 2020 MLB division futures.

Breaking Down the Cincinnati Reds Free Agent Signings

The same can be said in San Diego where the Padres are a +900 underdog to win the NL West. San Diego has 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Manny Machado, OF Tommy Pham, and the league’s next great shortstop in Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres might not win the NL West over a heavily favored Dodgers team, but they are certainly worth a look at +2500 to win the NL pennant. Even more interesting is a Padres-Yankees World Series matchup that offers +6500 odds. Hey, no one expected Washington to even make last year’s World Series!

Health Problems

What many bettors might overlook or simply not research enough is the number of health conditions that MLB players deal with. Colorado Rockies OF David Dahl, for example, had his spleen removed after an outfield collision in the minor leagues. Without a spleen, Dahl is more susceptible to certain illnesses, including COVID-19.

Now, the Rockies are a huge underdog (+3500) to win the NL West and an even bigger underdog to win the NL pennant (+4500). The Rockies do have a nice lineup with SS Trevor Story and 3B Nolan Arenado, but without Dahl – a .302 hitter last year – there is simply no scenario in which a bet on Colorado makes sense.

Bettors digging deep would also find that both Jon Lester and Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs have had past treatments for cancer. While it is awesome that both players recovered and were able to continue their careers, there is also the issue of a compromised immune system.

Chemotherapy drugs wreak havoc on the body and can damage immune systems. That makes it more difficult for people to fight off infections and viruses like COVID-19. In that NL Central race, playing without Lester and/or Rizzo for any length of time might make bettors think twice about going all in on Chicago at +190.