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We don’t need to explain to you that emotions are likely to be high at Heinz Field on Monday night, as Pittsburgh Steeler fans realize it might be the last time they’ll see Ben Roethlisberger on their home turf.
This is, for all intents and purposes, a “meaningless” game as far as the playoff situation is concerned,because the Cleveland Browns are out of contention and the Steelers will have to win this game, plus next week against Baltimore, and hope that Jacksonville beats Indianapolis. Not impossible, but not all that feasible.
But the “swan song” for Big Ben might provide more than enough impetus on the Pittsburgh side. But does that mean they can win on the fundamentals? We’ll explore that with our NFL player props picks.
MAke sure you also read our Browns vs. Steelers preview with a free ATS pick.
Ben Roethlisberger Props Picks for Week 17
Best Bet: OVER 35.5 PASS ATTEMPTS
MNF Props Odds: Over 35.5 Attempts (+100) / Under 35.5 Attempts (-130)
Remember when Kobe Bryant, and the end of a disappointing and injury-ravaged season, had his farewell game and the Utah Jazz kind of stood around and let him score 60 points?
Well, the Browns aren’t likely to stand down and allow Big Ben to go hog wild, but it wouldn’t surprise us if he took every opportunity to affect this decision himself.
We’re not all that interested in the “passing yards” prop, because we acknowledge that Roethlisberger is one of a handful of starting QB’s (Matt Ryan, Davis Mills and Jared Goff being the others) averaging less than seven Intended Air yards per attempt. So he’s not throwing it far.
We do realize that he has averaged 32.8 attempts over his last four games, but we can see him airing it out while he still can.
Nick Chubb Props Picks for Week 17
Best Bet: OVER 87.5 RUSHING YARDS
MNF Props Odds: Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115) / Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Chubb averages 95.3 yards per game. But that’s not what is most important to us. And it is irrelevant to us that he had 61 yards the last time these teams met.
What looms large for us is that Chubb has averaged three yards a carry AFTER contact, which leads everyone in the NFL. He also has 387 of his yards from “explosive” runs, which is second to Jonathan Taylor.
This is because the Steelers have allowed more runs of 20 or more yards than anyone. They rank 30th in “Second Level” run defense according to the analytics guys at Football Outsiders. they rank at the bottom of the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed (4.8). And no wonder – they have surrendered 180.4 rush yards per game over their last seven.
Pat Freiermuth Props Picks for Week 17
Best Bet: TO SCORE TOUCHDOWN (NFL Touchdown Props Betting Guide)
MNF Props Odds: +280 to score touchdown
It was a shame that Freiermuth dropped a TD pass that would have capped off an incredible comeback in that game against Minnesota. That’s because, in this, his rookie season, he has dropped only one pass other than that.
The Penn State alum has had 64 total targets, and seven of them have gone for touchdowns. He is tied with Diontae Johnson for more red zone targets (17). And inside the ten-yard line, he’s been thrown to nine times, with five TD catches.
David Njoku Props Picks for Week 17
Best Bet: OVER 18.5 RECEIVING YARDS
MNF Props Odds: Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115) / Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Browns don’t get a lot of mileage out of their wide receivers. So the tight ends become important. Pittsburgh has allowed just 44.5 yards per game to tight ends. And Cleveland has three of them to get in on the act.
Austin Hooper has the second most targets on the team. But he gets little nibbles (8.8 yards per catch). The guy who is more dangerous is Njoku, who averages 14.5 yards per reception, and can register a figure below his season average and still win this prop for you.
Chase Claypool Props Picks for Week 17
Best Bet: UNDER 36.5 RECEIVING YARDS
MNF Props Odds: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115) /Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
No one was all that happy with Claypool when he got up to showboat after catching a pass for a first down with time ticking down against the Vikings.
Noticeably, Roethlisberger was not quick to go to bat for him, only pointing out that scolding players for such behavior was Mike Tomlin’s job.
Well, in the two games after that, Claypool was targeted only eight times. While we understand full well that he could erase this over-under on one play, his 57% catch rate isn’t all that impressive, and Big Ben doesn’t mind throwing the ball short-range to people like Najee Harris.
