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The Milwaukee Bucks seemed to get the short end of the stick when it came to referee’s calls in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going to the line just 16 times while the Phoenix Suns hit 25 of 26. The result was a 118-105 loss, but the good news for them was that Giannis Antetokounmpo returned to the lineup, and it looks like he’ll keep going.
So as we head to Thursday’s Game 2 (9:05 PM ET in Phoenix), we have some solid props for sports bettors that could cash big for us.
Milwaukee Bucks Player Props Predictions (Game 2)
New to props? Read our NBA player props betting guide first.
JRUE HOLIDAY UNDER 33.5 COMBINED POINTS, REBOUNDS, ASSISTS (-108)
Our feeling about Jrue Holiday is something like this – when he was in the Eastern Conference semi-final series against Brooklyn, his Effective Field Goal Percentage was just 41.2%. That’s horrid. When he had a favorable matchup advantage from his offensive standpoint, against either Trae Young or Lou Williams in the East finals, that figure jumped to 54.1%.
But if Chris Paul is guarding him, things will be different. For instance, in Game 1 his eFG % was just 28.6%. and we wonder if that might be a harbinger of things to come. With Phoenix having such a dynamite backcourt with Paul and Devin Booker, Holiday really needs to concentrate on slowing down one or the other if Milwaukee is going to have a chance. He’ll get assists, but remember that his assist average in the postseason (8.4) is well above what it was in the regular season (6.1). Will he revert to the mean?
GIANNIS OVER 43.5 COMBINED POINTS, REBOUNDS, ASSISTS (-108)
I know what you’re saying – “CJ, you cashed in all those times with an ‘under’ with Giannis in this category. Why would you go the other way if he is not operating at 100%?”
Ok, that’s a good question. Well, for one thing, the threshold he has to clear is lower. We were looking at 50.5 or 51.5 much of the way.
And you know, it’s interesting; Giannis originally thought that his knee injury was going to put him out for the rest of the playoffs. But it wasn’t as serious as he thought. He’s been getting treatment. He worked out. He played. Maybe he wasn’t at full capacity. But he still had 20 points and 17 rebounds. And he’s drawing fouls (though not the best free throw shooter).
Giannis came into this series averaging 12.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs. And even though he hasn’t been able to shoot too well from three-point range, he’s made up for that in another way. He simply dominates the action on the inside. Prior to this series getting underway, Giannis was averaging 20.1 points in the paint, and that is the highest average for any player in the last 21 years.
So, bettors know he can get the “easy” baskets. The scoring is something he can take care of. We’d be worrying about the other categories. But there have been times when we thought he was really hurting, and he’s been absolutely imposing. Well, in this case the number isn’t as imposing.
And for what it’s worth, in over 35 minutes on the floor, Giannis had plus-1 plus-minus, FAR better than any other starter.
BROOK LOPEZ OVER 12.5 POINTS (-123)
For all the things Lopez can do to contribute, this seems to us like a low threshold. For example, he actually hit three triples in Game 1. And that isn’t incredibly unusual for him, as he has that kind of range.
Lopez has also been a threat in close. Did you know that in the first three rounds of the playoffs, he shot 74.4% in the paint and 83% in the restricted area? Brook asserted himself with five offensive rebounds, and that was more than any player from either side in Game 1. So maybe some put backs?
If I was Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer, I’d be thinking of some ways for my team to challenge DeAndre Ayton (22 points, 19 boards in Game 1) and try and get him into foul trouble. Lopez (17 points on Tuesday) would be one of two logical people to do it with (along with Giannis).
Learn how to bet on triple-double props and next field goal props.
