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It certainly isn’t an unfamiliar scenario for a team to lose the first two games away from home in a series. And just as familiar is the scenario where they come out the chute very quickly in the third game, as they have finally returned home.
Sports bettors are presented with such a circumstance as they look at Game 3 between the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns. For the 8:05 PM ET Sunday start, we are not going to say that things look good right now for the Bucks, who are down two games to none, but they are at least going to get an extra day of rest for their star, Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has, as you’re probably aware, been dealing with a hyper-extended knee.
We don’t often toot our own horn, but we hit the nail right on the head with the Game 2 props bets we threw out there. We’re expecting to have the same kind of success as we move to Game 3.
Bet on the Bucks to Cover ATS in First Half
BUCKS -3.5 IN FIRST HALF (-115)
Read our NBA 1st half betting guide.
After, well, not a whole lot of debate, we have decided to go with a trend here. When it comes to teams that fall behind two games to nothing in a playoff series, and then have come home to play, it is a pretty good play for them to come out and play well in the first half.
In fact, if you go back to the 2002-03 season, the first half line works for a home favorite to the tune of 65%. That’s very solid. And there is obviously a basis in logic, as that team is likely to come out charged up more than usual, with an added sense of urgency (pardon the cliches).
And wouldn’t you know it? The Bucks have been very good at this first half stuff at home. When laying points, they are 29-12-1 against the spread, which is 70.7%. That’s extremely strong, and that makes it a play for us.
Suns vs. Bucks Game 3 NBA Player Props Predictions
GIANNIS UNDER 50.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS (+100)
Giannis came back from his hyper-extended knee unexpectedly, so there were no props we saw on him in Game 1, or at least anything early. But after he scored 20 points with 17 rebounds, this number was established at 42.5 for Game 2, at which point it was time for us to strike.
But now, after Giannis erupted for 42 points in Game 2, the number has jumped back up to levels we saw in the previous two series. And if you recall, we cashed in. There is a natural tendency to inflate numbers for the two-time MVP. But the truth is, in 17 playoff games, he has exceeded 50.5 only three times. And the price is right.
JRUE HOLIDAY UNDER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS (-108)
There have been spots where we’ve been “on” Holiday, and indeed he has scored more points at home than he has on the road. But there are a couple of things we have to take into consideration.
One is that if the Bucks are going to have a chance to win, Holiday is going to have to do something to slow down the Suns in the backcourt, where Chris Paul and Devin Booker have combined to average 56.5 points between them.
And Holiday simply isn’t shooting very well. He is 31.4% in the first two games, and simply is not a threat from three-point territory (10 for 37 in last six games).
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