2024 NASCAR Cup Series Midseason Preview and Picks

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular season has crossed the halfway point and not only are things heating up on the tracks, but they’re also heating up in the standings. Currently, Hendrick Motorsports is leading the pack, but will they be able to finish the season with another Cup Series Championship?

Let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR odds, according to the top sports betting sites, and make our best Cup Series Championship predictions.

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

NASCAR Cup Series Odds	NASCAR Cup Series Odds
Kyle Larson +400	Denny Hamlin +425
William Byron +500	Christopher Bell +750
Chase Elliott +950	Tyler Reddick +1000
Martin Truex Jr +1100	Ryan Blaney +1200
Brad Keselowski +1400	Ty Gibbs +1800
Joey Logano +2000	Ross Chastain +2200
Chris Buescher +2500	Kyle Busch +3300
Alex Bowman +3300	Bubba Wallace +4000
Austin Cindric +5000	Daniel Suarez +8000

With just a few short months until the NASCAR Playoffs, Kyle Larson is leading Denny Hamlin by a nose in the Cup Series Championship odds. Although he’s sitting further back in the standings, oddsmakers like what William Byron has done this season and have him pegged as one of the favorites. With that in mind, there’s plenty of betting value on the board including a longshot that could be worth a small flier. 

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Cup Series Championship:

Kyle Larson +400        

• Team: Hendrick Motorsports
• Car #: 5
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8
• Stage Wins: 7
• Laps Led: 675

Kyle Larson opened the 2024 Cup Series season as the betting favorite to win the Championship. His +550 odds were slightly better than Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron at +600 and Chase Elliott at +700.

Larson is the 2021 Cup Series Champion and already on his way to surpassing those numbers. That season, Larson had two wins, 10 Top 5s, and 26 Top 10s. Currently, the #5 car already has three wins, seven Top 5s, and eight Top 10s in 2024.

He sits atop the standings, 14 points ahead of teammate Chase Elliott. Furthermore, Larson is tied with Byron and Hamlin for the most wins, tied with two other drivers for the most Top 5s, and is third in Top 10s. He also has led the most laps and has won the most stages as of this writing.

Larson picked up wins in Las Vegas, Kansas and Sonoma so far. He’s certainly going to be favored at more tracks throughout the remaining NASCAR races this year. Is it smart to ride with Larson for this wager or should we consider another driver?

Denny Hamlin +425

• Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
• Car #: 11
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8
• Stage Wins: 3
• Laps Led: 607

Currently, Denny Hamlin sits third in the standings at 26 points behind Larson. However, his overall numbers are on par with the #5 car. Hamlin is either tied or just behind Larson in wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, Stage Wins and laps led.

The #11 car took the checkered flag in Bristol, Richmond and Dover. He was also runner-up at Illinois a few weeks ago. With that said, Hamlin has yet to win a Cup Series Championship despite being a perennial contender.

Hamlin’s career best finish was runner-up in 2010. Unfortunately, that was during Jimmie Johnson’s reign of terror. Since NASCAR went to the new Playoff format in 2014, Hamlin’s best finish was third on three separate occasions. Last year he finished 5^th and missed out on the Championship race. 

This Joe Gibbs Racing stalwart opened the 2024 season as the fifth highest betting favorite with +800 odds. He’s currently pegged as the second-best betting favorite with half a season left. But can Hamlin finally get over the hump and win the championship?

William Byron +500

• Team: Hendrick Motorsports
• Car #: 24
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 9
• Stage Wins: 1
• Laps Led: 236

As mentioned above, Byron opened the season just behind Larson in the Championship odds. Byron was listed at +600 and has slightly improved to +500 despite picking up three wins so far. The #24 car won the Daytona 500 this year along with victories in Austin and Martinsville.

Currently, Byron sits 6^th in the standings after a tough stretch knocked him down from 4^th. Byron has four finishes outside of the Top 15 in his last six races, which has led to his tumble in the standings.

Last year, the Hendrick Motorsports driver finished third after a stellar season with six wins, 15 Top 5s, and 21 Top 10s. He’s on pace to match most of those numbers once again.

The 2023 season marked Byron’s legitimacy as a Championship contender. Unfortunately, a 4^th place finish in the Championship Race last year, prevented the 26-year-old driver from winning his first ever Cup Series crown.

Will Byron be able to improve on his 2023 finish and bring Hendrick Motorsports their 15^th championship?

Christopher Bell +750

• Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
• Car #: 20
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 9
• Stage Wins: 6
• Laps Led: 295

Despite being 9^th in the Cup Series standings as of this writing, Bell is still considered one of the betting favorites to win the 2024 Cup Series Championship. Currently, Bell has two wins, four Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and six stage wins. He picked up the checkered flag in Phoenix and Charlotte so far.

Bell’s season has been and up-and-down affair as he was as low as 21^st in the standings and as high as 6^th. Over the last month, the #20 car has gone from 15^th to 9^th in the standings due to a victory and three straight Top 10 finishes. It seems that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is building momentum as we inch closer to the Playoffs.

Last year was Bell’s coming out party as he finished 4^th in the standings. Bell surprised both pundits and bettors by making his way to the Championship Race in Phoenix. Unfortunately, he crashed out of the race and his shot at a Championship went up in smoke.

Bell has already matched his win total from last year and is on pace to reach or surpass the rest of his stats from 2023. Can the 29-year-old make his way back to the Championship Race and win the title in 2024?

Best NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Value

 At +1100 odds, Martin Truex Jr. is my choice for the best betting value as of this publication. The 2017 Cup Series Champion sits 5^th in the standings at 66 points behind Larson. The #19 car was in the Top 3 for most of the season. In fact, he was second for at least seven weeks before tumbling down the standings with a recent stretch of poor results.

Over the last month, the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has three finishes outside of the Top 25. For the season, Truex’s overall numbers are well behind other drivers in the Top 5.

With that said, Truex has been one of the top drivers in the sport for the last decade. A recent rough patch will not prevent the veteran from making his way back up the standings and into contention for another Championship.

Last year, Truex finished 5^th and missed out on the Championship Race. This year, the #19 car aims to finish in the Final Four and get another crack at the crown.

Truex’s betting odds are going to shrink as we get closer to the Playoffs. He opened the season at +1000 odds and currently sits seventh on the NASCAR odds boards. Truex offers solid betting value at this point of the season.

Top NASCAR Cup Series Championship Longshot

Daniel Suarez at +8000 odds is my choice for the best longshot to win the 2024 Cup Series Championship. Suarez entered the season with +8000 odds of winning the crown and hasn’t seen any improvement in his betting line despite a surprising year so far.

Currently, Suarez sits 19^th in the standings, which is three spots below the cutoff. However, he has a golden ticket to get into the Playoffs as Suarez has already won this year. The talented driver picked up a victory in Atlanta.

Although the Trackhouse Racing driver hasn’t had much success beyond Atlanta, he still has a shot at the Cup Series Championship because he will be one of the Playoff eligible drivers.

When it comes to picking a longshot to win the title, the #99 fits the bill. In fact, he’s definitely worthy of a flier since Suarez will be in the Playoffs. He has already shown, that on his best day, the Trackhouse Racing driver can contend with the favorites.

Who Will Win The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?

Right now, all the stats point to a two-man competition between Larson and Hamlin. These two drivers are leading the field in just about every major statistical category. Furthermore, they are betting favorites just about every week.

Byron and Bell certainly have a shot at contending for the title as both have shown the ability to make it to the Championship 4 last year.

The 2023 Champion, Ryan Blaney, appears to have fallen back to expectations as he’s currently sitting 12th in the standings with very little to show on the year. Personally, I felt that Blaney (+1200) was a product of good fortunes last year and not the best driver.

Another driver to keep an eye on is Chase Elliott at +950 odds. The Hendrick teammate to Byron and Larson sits second in the standings just 14 points back. He’s the 2020 Cup Series Champion and the best road course driver in the field. After an abysmal 2023 season, the #9 car appears to be regaining his championship form and could be a real threat in the Playoffs.

With that said, I’m taking Kyle Larson to win the Cup Series Championship this season. Yeah, it’s not always cool to pick the chalk but Larson looks like the best driver in the field this year. He’s recaptured his 2021 championship swagger and shows no signs of slowing down.

At +400 odds, there’s still some value to betting on Larson. I expect these odds to shrink by time we get to the Playoffs and definitely as he advances through each round.