UFC on ESPN+ 37: Moraes vs. Sandhagen Picks

The UFC will remain on Fight Island (Abu Dhabi) for UFC on ESPN+ 37 on Saturday.

Last week, things took a down turn. I ended up going 1-3 for –3.05 units, but we’re still on a good run and I’ve spent some extra time this week formulating my predictions.

The main event between Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Moraes is intriguing, but the rest of the card is lacking in talent, but I’m sure we’ll still have a great night of fights on Saturday.

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Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen Picks

Fight Odds: Moraes (+115) vs. Sandhagen (-145)

Moraes (23-6-1) is a small underdog against Sandhagen (12-2) in the main event.

Sandhagen is 5-1 in the UFC. He started his UFC career off with three stoppage wins, but he has slowed down. In his last three fights, he has two decision wins and a loss.

The loss came in his last fight against Sterling. He was tapped in the first round.

Moraes is 5-2 in the UFC with losses to Assuncao in his debut and Cejudo last year. Since losing to Cejudo, Moraes bounced back with a very tight split decision win against Aldo.

Both of these fighters have been known to gas out and this is a five-round fight. Sandhagen will have a 3’’ reach advantage and will look to utilize his jab early. He averages 6.95 SLpM.

Moraes averages 3.53 SLpM, but he has more power and deadly leg kicks that wear you down. He has 10 TKO/KO wins and even knocked out Sterling back in 2017 with an insane knee.

Sandhagen has only been stopped once, but Moraes has more power than he’s used to.

Best Bet: Marlon Moraes ML (+115) at America’s Bookie

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Edson Barboza vs. Makwan Amirkhani Picks

Fight Odds: Barboza (-272) vs. Amirkhani (+217)

Barboza (20-9) fights Amirkhani (16-4) in the co-main event at UFC on ESPN+ 37.

The Finnish Amirkhani is 6-2 in the UFC since joining the promotion five years ago. He’s dangerous on the mat and he has racked up 11 submission wins, but this is a tough match-up.

Barboza is the more imposing fighter and if he keeps this fight standing, he should win.

The Brazilian has lost five of his last six fights, albeit against some of the best UFC fighters, including Nurmagomedov and Gaethje, which makes him impossible to trust at these moneyline odds.

I’m going to be betting on this fight to finish under 2.5 rounds (-135).

Barboza has been stopped five times and Amirkhani has been stopped twice. Both fighters are also finishers. I expect them to go to war, but one of them will emerge victorious in the second round.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)

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Ben Rothwell vs. Marcin Tybura Picks

Fight Odds: Rothwell (-150) vs. Tybura (+120)

Rothwell (38-12) is on a two-fight win streak with wins against Struve and St. Preux.

Tybura (19-6) is 6-5 in the UFC and on a two-fight win streak as well. However, this feels like a step up for Tybura and I don’t think he’s going to have success trying to takedown Rothwell.

If Rothwell keeps this fight standing, he’ll pick up his third consecutive win.

This is unlikely to be an exciting fight, but that suits Rothwell perfectly. He’s slow, but he knows how to pick apart fighters with his vast experience. I like him to win by decision here.

Best Bet: Ben Rothwell ML (-150) at America’s Bookie

UFC on ESPN+ 37 Parlay Picks

Here’s my UFC on ESPN+ 37 parlay for this weekend:

Aspinall ITD (-240) + Ulanbekov ML + Breese ML (+144 Odds)

For my parlay bet, I’m going with these three plays.

Tom Aspinall (8-2) is the biggest favorite on this card in his fight against Alan Baudot (8-1). He’ll have no problem finishing this fight. Tom Breese (11-2) is 4-2 in the UFC, but he needs a win, as he has lost two of his last three. He fights K.B. Bhullar who is making his debut.

Tagir Ulanbekov (10-1) makes his UFC debut against Bruno Silva (10-4-2-1) who is 0-1-0-1 in the UFC. The Dagestan fighter has been hyped up and I expect him to dominate in his debut.

He has great submissions and will likely grow into the next UFC title contender from Dagestan.

UFC on ESPN+ 37 Betting Lines

The following UFC on ESPN+ 37 fight odds are from America’s Bookie.

Cory Sandhagen (-145) vs. Marlon Moraes (+115)

Edson Barboza (-272) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+217)

Ben Rothwell (-150) vs. Marcin Tybura (+120)

Dricus Du Plessis (-162) vs. Markus Perez (+132)

Tom Aspinall (-587) vs. Alan Baudot (+412)

Youssef Zalal (-190) vs. Ilia Topuria (+160)

Tom Breese (-260) vs. K.B. Bhullar (+210)

Rodrigo Nascimento (-272) vs. Chris Daukaus (+217)

Impa Kasanganay (-250) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+200)

Tony Kelley (-237) vs. Ali Alqaisi (+187)

Omar Morales (-162) vs. Giga Chikadze (+132)

Tracy Cortez (-195) vs. Stephanie Egger (+165)

Tagir Ulanbekov (-425) vs. Bruno Silva (+325)