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Spring training is underway in preparation for the upcoming MLB regular season. Coming off an abbreviated 60-game schedule in 2020, baseball fans and bettors alike are looking forward to a return to the full 162-game MLB schedule.
One of the most popular MLB futures bets this time of the year is the OVER/UNDER on each team’s projected win total. As opposed to betting on the best teams in the league when it comes to World Series, league pennant and division title futures, there is some excellent value to be found throughout the betting board for projected wins.
Once the number of projected wins is set, every team starts out with -115 odds for betting the OVER or the UNDER. The early money coming in dictates how each of these money lines move up or down from here.
The Best of the Best
It is no big surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest projected win total as reigning World Series Champions.
Set at 103½ wins, the early betting value could be on the UNDER. The Dodgers did win 104 games in 2017 and 106 games in 2019. However, winning that many games is not as easy to do with the target of being world champions on your back. Every team you face has the added motivation of beating the best.
Another factor could be the season series against the San Diego Padres as NL West Division rivals. The Padres have been touted as legitimate World Series contenders should Los Angeles slip a bit this season.
San Diego’s projected win total is 95½ games which happens to be the second-highest total on the board along with the New York Yankees.
The early betting value with San Diego is the UNDER on that total. The hype behind the Padres is running about as high as it gets despite being in the same division as the Dodgers. The last time San Diego eclipsed 95½ wins was in the 1998 season at 98-64.
New York is always over hyped this time of the year. The Yankees finished a full seven games off the pace behind the Tampa Bay Rays over 60 games last season to raise some concern.
However, the Yankees have crossed the 95½-game win threshold in back-to-back seasons prior to last year with 100 wins in 2018 and 103 wins in 2019. The early lean could be towards the OVER.
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Things Can Only Get Better
Some of the best value betting MLB win total futures can be found with the worst teams in the league. When spring training rolls around, every team’s goal is to move forward this season as compared to recent results.
That is actually easier to do with a team projected to only win 63½ games such as the NL West’s Colorado Rockies. Granted, they play in the same division as the Dodgers and Padres. Yet, the Rockies are only three seasons removed from going 91-72.
They current roster has far more holes than the 2018 version. Yet, getting to 70+ wins is not that big of a stretch.
Another team you could add to this list would be the Baltimore Orioles at 63½ wins. Do not get me wrong, this is still a very bad team. However, they play in a division that is not as nearly competitive as it once was.
The Orioles hit rock bottom with 47 wins in 2018. With 54 wins in 2019, another 10 wins this season is a realistic expectation.
Analyzt the opening/closing lines every morning in our MLB game recaps while you’re betting on baseball this season.
