Preakness Stakes betting may take a little “Imagination”

The Preakness Stakes is getting ready to undergo some change. Pimlico Race Course is set for renovations, which will temporarily push the race to its sister course, Laurel Park, in 2026. For those involved in Preakness Stakes betting, these changes bring new dynamics to consider. If you’re new to betting or want to refine your strategies, check out this guide on how to bet on horse races.

In the racing industry itself, the Preakness is part of a conversation that is centered on preserving the Triple Crown races. For a while now, horsemen have been reluctant to take their horses who competed in the Kentucky Derby and enter them in the Preakness; in fact, only three of the twenty Derby horses will be at Pimlico, and there won’t be many more than that in the Belmont, three weeks from now. The Derby-Preakness thing, in particular, is a tough two-week turnaround.

We are indeed fortunate that the Derby winner, Mystik Dan, will be seen in this race.

This is the 149trh running of the Preakness, which was first contested in 1873. Not that many people know that the race, which originated at Pimlico, took place in Brooklyn for a period of fifteen years (1894 through 1908). Okay, maybe not many care.

This year’s race was supposed to serve as a vindication for Bob Baffert, an eight-time Preakness winner who was said to have the best three-year-old in America. But Baffert had to scratch that three-year-old, Muth when he arrived at Pimlico at a temperature of 103. He said, “We have to do what’s right by the horse,” which, considering developments over the last couple of years, may sound ironic to some. Baffert may still have an awful lot to say about who wins this second leg of the Triple Crown, and we’ll be exploiting that in a few minutes. 

Here are the latest odds 

Because Muth was the favorite, that greatly affected the chances of the other horses in the field. One of them is Mystic Dan, who is now the morning line favorite as it has been revised. 

So here are your latest Preakness Stakes betting odds, taking into account the scratch of Muth, who was in the #4 post position after the draw: 

1. Mugatu  +2000
2. Uncle Heavy +2000
3. Catching Freedom  +350
4. Mystik Dan  +160
5. Seize the Grey  +1200
6. Just Steel  +1200
7. Tuscan Gold  +450
8. Imagination +300

The effect of the Muth’s absence

Muth won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita as a two-year-old, then proceeded to finish second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile behind Fierceness, which went into the Kentucky Derby as the favorite but failed miserably. But even before the Derby, Muth was the favorite in the Preakness Future book.

Muth has prevailed in two graded stakes as a three-year-old. He won the Grade 2 San Vicente (at Santa Anita) in rather decisive fashion and then turned around in his last outing to beat Just Steel by two lengths in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. In that race, Muth beat Mystik Dan by 6-1/4 lengths.

Muth missed the Kentucky Derby because Baffert is currently banned by Churchill Downs. So there are many who’d say that for the second consecutive Triple Crown race, the best three-year-old isn’t involved. 

The weather is a factor in Preakness stakes betting.

Those who are handicapping the Preakness Stakes should know that they could be in for a wet day. How wet? Well, although the forecast for Pimlico on Friday calls for a rather small chance of rain, which is an improvement over a previous forecast, there is an 80% chance of showers at the track on Saturday afternoon.

Obviously, it is going to have an impact on the surface. The question is, how much? 

If it is raining consistently throughout the afternoon (keep in mind that post time is 7:01 PM ET), there is naturally going to be a good chance you’ll see an “off” track, which represents less than optimal conditions. 

Most likely, the track will be “muddy,” where it is wet, for sure, but has no standing water, or “sloppy,” where it has standing water that is visible. 

This can have a very definite effect on the outcome. That’s because some horses are better at handling the off-track than others. Some are even bred for it. In the Preakness, bad weather conditions are going to give some horses a better chance at victory while killing the prospects of others.

Head-to-head matchups may be your best option.

Clearly, one can log onto a racebook and wager on a horse race. You can do the win, place, and show, along with exactas, trifectas, daily doubles and so forth.

You can do that at the racetrack as well. 

But there are some things you can do at a sportsbook that you just can’t do at the track. Special props vary according to which book you go to. But maybe the best thing you can explore is the head-to-head matchups. 

These are simple, as they involve one horse’s performance against another. And make no mistake about it; this where you can really put your handicapping to work. 

If you’ve done some of your homework, you may have ranked all the horses in a field from top to bottom. You may throw some horses out, deciding that they have no chance. You may have determined that there are some viable longshot possibilities. 

And if you have done that sort of thing, you should be able to decipher where there might be some value. Matchups give you that opportunity.

It works like any two-way prop, and you’ll get some pretty honest prices. 

An example of this, as it applies to the Preakness Stakes betting, involves the favored Mystik Dan, who is coupled together with Imagination in a matchup offering:

• Mystik Dan -150
• Imagination +130

If you are one of those horse racing bettors who is spooked by Mystik Dan turning around and running two weeks after the Derby, you may eliminate him as a possibility, which might point you in the direction of Imagination, trained by Baffert, the most successful Preakness trainer. 

• Catching Freedom -145
• Imagination +125

Maybe you really love the chances of Imagination and trust Baffert here. You may be inclined to take his horse over just about anybody in a two-way prop. And of course, Catching Freedom is another of those horses who is racing on just two weeks’ rest after the Derby.

• Seize the Grey -155
• Uncle Heavy +135

This is an intriguing head-to-head matchup, particularly if it rains enough on Saturday to adversely affect track conditions. There is a metric we’ll introduce you to in a few minutes which indicates that Seize the Grey (who raced two weeks ago, by the way) might be in very good shape in the event of an “off” track, while Uncle Heavy has won both times he’s faced less than ideal conditions. 

Why don’t we take a quick look at the Preakness field, one horse at a time:

(1) Mugatu  +2000

At $80,570, this colt has the lowest earnings in the Preakness field. He is tied for the most starts of anyone in the race with twelve.

There is just one victory in those 12 outings and only two results as high as third since breaking the maiden. 

There is a jockey change here, as Joe Bravo, who rode Mugatu in his lone win, has come back aboard. 

Only one time has he gone over a mile and a sixteenth, and that just happened to be his only stakes race – the Blue Grass Stakes at Lexington, where Mugatu came fifth but was nonetheless soundly beaten. This is a non-contender.

(2) Uncle Heavy  +2000

This is one of the contestants who has raced on an off track. That was on February 3 in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. And he impressed, winning by a nose. 

Last time out, Uncle Heavy was no factor, finishing fifth and losing by eleven lengths in the Wood Memorial, and not against an outstanding field either.

This horse has won three times in five races. But Irad Ortiz Jr. has replaced Mychel Sanchez in the saddle.

Perhaps it deserves mention that Uncle Heavy is two for two on off-tracks, which may be a factor considering the weather forecast for Pimlico on Saturday.

(3) Catching Freedom +350

The grandson of Tapit raced well in the Kentucky Derby, navigating his way through the pack to finish fourth, less than two lengths behind the within-a-nose trio of Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young.

At this distance of a mile and three sixteenths, he won the Louisiana Derby, a Grade 2 event at the Fairgrounds in which he beat Tuscan Gold, who is also in the Preakness. 

Flavien Prat, who was on board in that Louisiana Derby, will ride for the third straight time for trainer Brad Cox. Prat was not in the saddle when Catching Freedom finished third – on a sloppy track – in the Risen Star Stakes on February 17.

This horse will be looking to mount a closing drive, but the field may lack enough front-running types to create the right situation for him.

(5) Mystik Dan +160 

This horse went into the Kentucky Derby as a legitimate longshot in the opinion of many. And he was indeed able to hold off the charges of both Sierra Leone and Forever Young to win in a photo, catching better than 18-1 odds.

Off the win, Mystik Dan is the top career earner in the Preakness field, with winnings totaling $3,741,360. Brian Hernandez, who has been in the saddle for all three victories, will ride again. 

Skeptics will obviously point to the proposition that it is very difficult to go through such a taxing effort in the Derby and then turn around just two weeks later in the Preakness. This is valid, and plenty of horsemen are in that camp; otherwise we wouldn’t be having so much discussion every year about putting more space between these Triple Crown races.

And beyond that, after breaking maiden with a superior effort last November, trainer Kenny McPeek came back with him just thirteen days later, but finished fifth, eight lengths behind. McPeek later admitted that he brought the bay colt back too soon. 

But while we’re at it, let’s point out that at this juncture, Mystik Dan is the only entrant who can possibly win the Triple Crown. And the Goldencents colt’s quest has perhaps gotten easier by way of three factors – (a) the favorite, Muth, has scratched from the Preakness, (b) the Belmont is not a mile and a half, but a mile and a quarter, now that it’s been moved to Saratoga, and (c), the conditions at Pimlico on Saturday may present a more favorable situation than the Derby winner might find otherwise.

All indications are that if we see an off track on Saturday (I.e, one where it’s wet), it would be welcomed by Mystik Dan and his connections. In his one race on a muddy track, which took place in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn (February 3), Mystik Dan obliterated the field, winning by eight lengths and registering his best speed figure to date. 

One of the opponents he left behind with mud in his face was Just Steel, the son of Justify, who has also beaten him a couple of times.

Mystik Dan’s grandsire is Into Mischief, the champion sire who is also known as a premier “sire of sires.” His progeny have been known for being able to perform in all conditions, particularly on off tracks. 

This has obviously come into focus this week as the horse was ridden by retired jockey Robby Albarado, who is now an agent but was a two-time Preakness winner (on Curlin and Swiss Skydiver) while active. He’s passing the time as an exercise rider for McPeek, and he says he is praying for wet conditions, because he thinks Mystik Dan will “glide” over the track.

(6) Seize the Grey  +1200

This son of 2016 Breeders Cup Classic winner Arrogate is being brought to Pimlico by 88-year-old D Wayne Lukas, who has won the Preakness six times. 

As a two-year-old, he broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Saratoga, then came back a few weeks later and finished third in the mud in a $150,000 stakes race. So at least he didn’t collapse under bad conditions. 

Last time out, Seize the Grey was impressive in winning the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs, but that was,after all, a mile. So stretching out against world-class competition is thought to be a problem by many. Running against Grade 1 stakes company in the Blue Grass on April 6, he had a less-then-optimal trip, finishing ten lengths back in seventh place.

In nine starts, Seize the Grey has had three wins. Jaime Torres, who has been aboard for two of them, will be riding.

(7) Just Steel  +1200

Just Steel has already gone to post a dozen times, with only two wins to show for it. Joel Rosario, who has been in the saddle for both victories, will be riding on Saturday. Juist Steel experienced second-place finishes in the Smarty Jones (behind Catching Freedom) and the Southwest Stakes (in back of Mystik Dan) at Oaklawn, as well as the Arkansas Derby, where he was two lengths behind Muth and ahead of Mystik Dan. 

It would be fair to say that for a son of Triple Crown winner Justify, more would have been expected of this $500,000 colt. But there is still hope. If you are thinking of backing Just Steel, you’re going to have to throw out his Kentucky Derby effort, in which he was in second place, challenging for the lead, but faded to a 17th-place finish, 33 lengths off the pace.  

(8) Tuscan Gold  +450

This horse has had only three starts, lowest in the Preakness field, and he has not only never competed in a Grade 1 race, he hasn’t won a graded stakes at all. 

However, what is interesting about Chad Brown’s colt is that he has increased his distance in each of the last two races and still posted a better speed figure in each. He ran a mile and three-sixteenths (the Preakness distance) and this would suggest he’d have no difficulty handling this route.

(9) Imagination +300

This is Baffert’s chance at satisfaction. And there is a lot to like. To begin with, he’s a son of the great sire Into Mischief, and that means he may have the upper hand when it comes to handling the wet surface. In addition, he’s been first or second in each of his six starts, and three of the four losses he’s had have been by a neck. 

That includes the Santa Anita Derby, where he was beaten out by Stronghold. Prior to that, he triumphed in a four-horse field in the San Felipe Stakes, a Grade 2 event. 

To date, Imagination has not raced this distance. But I don’t see that as a major problem. What could be a deciding factor between victory and defeat will be his ability to strike at the right time, as we know he’ll come out of the gate and be near the lead. And you could do a lot worse than the legendary Frankie Dettori up top. 

Pay attention to the Tomlinson figure

With a wet track expected, it is likely to bring another handicapping factor into play in the Preakness. It’s called the “Tomlinson” figure, developed originally by the Daily Racing Form, and it is designed to create an estimate of how any given horse can handle the “off” track conditions. Since there are invariably going to be horses in a race that have not run on a wet track, the Tomlinson takes into account factors such as the performance of those in the horse’s pedigree. In other words, it suggests that some horses have been been bred to handle the slop. 

These are the rankings of the Preakness starters as they relate to the Tomlinson number on each: 

#6 Seize the Grey   439

#7 Just Steel  430

#9 Imagination  424

#8 Tuscan Gold  408

#1 Mugatu  383

#2 Uncle Heavy  381

#3 Catching Freedom  378

#5 Mystik Dan  351

#4 Muth  350

So if you were factoring in the Tomlinson prominently, you might afford the likes of Seize the Grey, Just Steel,  Imaginatio nand even longshot Mugatu a better chance than otherwise. And we talked about all of this a couple of minutes ago. 

Of course, it is not infallible, as we have already seen the dominance Mystik Dan demonstrated on a muddy track when winning the Southwest Stakes over Just Steel, which has a much higher Tomlinson.

Now for my two cents…..

…. Not that it means a whole heck of a lot. But let’s start with the favorite, Derby champ Mystik Dan, who may be the best horse, and the fastest horse, in field. But despite his outstanding numbers, not to mention his past performance in the mud, we’re not sure the quick turnaround does him any favors. McPeek himself thought that when he ran Mystik Dan on short rest before he made a mistake. I get the sense that maybe he feels a Preakness appearance is obligatory after winning at Churchill Downs. 

So we’ll go with fresher horses. Imagination seems bred to handle the wet track and should be in a good position early. Tuscan Gold is on a projection to make a monster run, if he can overcome the lack of experience. I’m going to use both of them in some way, shape or form.