Aaron Rodgers Odds and Prop Bets: Will QB Retire in 2025?

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As the 2024-25 NFL season progresses, speculations over Aaron Rodgers’ future has become a hot topic among NFL talking heads, football fans and bettors alike.

Further emphasizing the popularity of Rodgers’ future, is the fact that NFL sportsbooks are beginning to list odds on whether or not he plays next season. And, if he does, there are questions surrounding where he will play.

After making his way back from a torn Achilles in 2023, the 41-year-old quarterback is enduring the worst statistical season of his career.

Additionally, as of this writing, the New York Jets are failing on all levels and turning into the “bad news bears” of the league. The Jets are not expected to make the Playoffs, which further fuels rumors of Rodgers’ retirement. In fact, The Jets aren’t even close to being a Super Bowl contender.

With that said, let’s dive into the latest Aaron Rodgers prop bets and make some predictions on the future HOF QB’s plans for 2025.

Aaron Rodgers Odds

Currently, the odds favor Rodgers returning next season. However, it’s not a guarantee that he returns to the Jets. Furthermore, as of this writing, and despite Rodgers’ optimism for the rest of the season, the Jets are heavily favored to miss the postseason. This could also play a factor in Rodgers’ future after the season ends.

Aaron Rodgers Prop Bets

The following Aaron Rodgers prop bets are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Will Aaron Rodgers retire via Free Agency in 2025?

• Yes (+300)
• No (NA)

Rodgers is under contract for the 2025 season with the New York Jets. However, none of his costs are guaranteed.

If the Jets decide to bring Rodgers back, they would have to exercise an option that triggers a $35 million bonus. The quarterback’s base salary would be $2.5 million, while his cap hit is at a manageable $23.5 million.

For New York, they would have to decide on whether or not a QB turning 42 next season, is worth that much money or do they go with a younger quarterback.

Additionally, the Jets will also need to determine what their immediate future will look like at the coaching position. The team fired Robert Salah in early October. Yet, they’ve gone 1-4 since that firing at the time of this publication.

Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich has Rodgers’ support, but so did Saleh and that didn’t turn out well. The future HOF quarterback has never had a 3-7 record in his 20-year career. And, it doesn’t appear that things will get any better for Rodgers or the team as the 2024-25 season winds down.

With that said, I don’t see the Jets ditching Rodgers next season. They will opt to bring him back and build for the future by drafting a young QB in the 2025 NFL Draft. Ditching Rodgers after this season would basically throw the proverbial towel in on next season.

In other words, the Jets would continue the trend of being a losing franchise if they chose to part ways with Rodgers next year, especially without a young QB waiting for his shot. If Rodgers retires, he will do so as a member of the Jets. But that’s a big “if” and one we’ll dissect even more in the next prop bet.

Bet: No (NA)

Will Aaron Rodgers retire before 2025 NFL Regular Season?

• Yes (+130)
• No (-175)

Sure, the rest of the 2024-25 NFL season will play a big part of Rodgers’ decision for next year. Additionally, the moves that the Jets’ front office make next offseason will also weigh heavily on Rodgers’ decision.

One decision that the team made last month, was to trade for Rodgers’ buddy Davante Adams. But they doubled down on that move by reworking Adams’ contract to basically lock him in for the 2025 season.

The Jets reduced their salary cap next season by adding a non-guaranteed year to the backend of Adams deal. As for the 2025 NFL season, Adams is guaranteed a $11.59 million salary. That came after the team lowered the receiver’s cap hit this year to $3.2 million.

Those financial moves aren’t made by a team that only thought this year was their window for success with Rodgers. They also view the 2025 season as part of that window.

As for Rodgers himself, he said during the previous offseason that he wanted to play up to four more years. Yet, on November 13, Rodgers wasn’t as convincing when asked about his playing future. In fact, when asked about playing next year, Rodgers simply said “I think so.”

That three-word response has now fueled rumors and speculations over the QB’s future and the franchise’s path forward. When discussing his current play, Rodgers made the following comments:

“I’m not playing as well as I would’ve liked to play, for sure. The beauty in this game is it’s a team game. The frustrating part is that if you’re a great competitor, you hold yourself to a standard that’s not unrealistic, and I haven’t reached that standard this year.”

Currently, Rodgers is ranked 24^th in Total QBR. He has 15 TD passes to seven interceptions and is throwing a career-low 6.4 yards per attempt.

Rodgers’ play has noticeably dropped off from recent years. In fact, he’s no longer a quarterback that can win games by himself. Now, this doesn’t mean that he should retire, it just means that the Jets need to make sure they have the right pieces around Rodgers in order for the team to succeed.

Sure, there are numerous playmakers on the offensive side of the ball with Adams and Willson at receiver. They also have a solid backfield with Hall and Allen running the ball. Part of the problem has been an inconsistent offensive line. This would need to be addressed in the offseason as one of the top priorities.

Rodgers is one of those players that wants to go out on his terms. I don’t see a subpar statistical season being something that he can accept as the final year of his career.

Right now, as of this writing, I think that Rodgers will play one more year and that would probably be his farewell tour. That also means the Jets will need to make moves to ensure a competitive team next year and not a third straight season of disappointment with Rodgers on the roster.

Bet: No (-175)