2024 AEW Full Gear Odds, Predictions and Full Card

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On Saturday, November 23, AEW will be live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, for their annual Full Gear PPV event. This weekend’s show marks the sixth installment in the Full Gear franchise. It’s considered to be one of the promotion’s “Big Four” PPV events.

This Saturday’s show will be headlined by an AEW World Championship match as Jon Moxley defends his title against Orange Cassidy.

In addition to the world title, Full Gear will feature three more championship matches. Mercedes Mone will defend the TBS title against Kris Statlander, Jack Perry puts his TNT title on the line against Daniel Garcia, and there will be a four-way match for the AEW Tag Team belts.

Despite all of those exciting championship bouts, there are three additional matches that I’m looking forward to the most. First, we’ll get another chapter in the Jay White vs. Hangman Adam Page rivalry. These two always put on great matches.

Speaking of great matches, I expect Will Ospreay vs. Kyle Fletcher to steal the show. I think these two former besties, turned enemies, will tear the house down with a stellar in-ring performance.

Last, but not least, Bobby Lashley will have his first wrestling match for AEW and he’s taking on the former world champion in Swerve Strickland.

Love or hate AEW, this Full Gear lineup is stacked and could end up being their best PPV of the year depending on how some of the storylines evolve.

Let’s take a look at the latest AEW Full Gear odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our AEW Full Gear Predictions. As of this writing, the betting odds are still trickling out. Make sure to check back throughout the week for updated odds.

AEW Full Gear Card

The following matches have been confirmed as of this writing:

Looking at these AEW odds makes a few things clear. First, the outcomes to these matches seem to be a given. In other words, not only do many fans feel that they know who will win the matches but the sportsbooks pretty much placed an exclamation point on these Full Gear bouts.

There’s only two matches where the favorite is under -1000 odds as of this writing. Six other favorites are all -1000 and higher. Three of those six have odds of -5000 or higher. Moxley is the biggest betting favorite for Full Gear at -10000 odds.

With that said, let’s break down these matches, the AEW booking decisions for how we got here, and why I’m taking one of the underdogs to win on Saturday night.

AEW Full Gear Predictions

The following AEW predictions are for the confirmed Full Gear matches. At this time of writing, not all matches have available odds:

“Big Boom!” A.J. vs. Q. T. Marshall

• “Big Boom!” A.J. (NA)
• Q. T. Marshall (NA)         

The first match that we’re going to take a look at is scheduled for the AEW Full Gear Zero Hour. And, I would say that AEW is being generous to even have it on live programming.

Big Boom A.J., real name AJ Befumo, is part of a Tik-Tok duo with his son Eric (Big Justice) and from the New Jersey region. So, naturally, they are going to feud with another wrestler who is also from Jersey in QT Marshall, who made the following comments:

“You wanted to do this for free on the Zero Hour, in front of all your friends and family. Well, AJ, just because you think that New Jersey is your hometown — I got another thing coming for you…New Jersey, I was born. New Jersey, I was raised. And in New Jersey, at Full Gear, I’m going to beat you. I’m going to embarrass you. I’m going to prove to you that 20 years ago when you walked away from professional wrestling and passed the torch to me, QT Marshall, you made the absolute right decision of your life.”

Yes, Befumo used to wrestle on the local independent scene for the Jersey region. So, it’s not like he’s never taken a bump in the ring. I’m sure he’s training for this big moment and will at least look the part of a wrestler.

As for the match itself, this is nothing more than an attempt to garner more social media attention. I fully expect Marshall to carry the match and somehow lose in the end. Putting over Befumo and his son would make for a better social media story than Marshall winning the match.

Look for the Costco Guys to pull one over on Marshall to get a roll up pinfall victory.

Bet: "Big Boom!" A.J. (NA)

Mariah May Champagne Celebration

Since late August, after Mariah May defeated Toni Strom at All In to win the AEW Women’s Championship, May had teased a world title celebration. From promos to matches and commentary, May continued to hype up a celebration but then declare that the fans of that specific town weren’t worth it.

Finally, May stated she would have a celebration when her friend and tag-team partner Mina Shirakawa returned to AEW.

On November 16, Shirakawa returned to AEW on the episode of Collision. She reunited with May and the women’s champ declared that she would have her celebration at Full Gear.

Earlier this week, Toni Storm stated that she was retiring from pro wrestling. The former champ has not been seen in AEW over the last few months.

Speculations are rising that Storm will retire her “Timeless” gimmick and go back to her previous character or create a new one.

With that said, you can expect some shenanigans to take place at Full Gear when it comes to this Champagne Celebration.

Either Storm returns and unveils her new character or Shirakawa turns on May.

MJF vs. Roderick Strong

• MJF (-5000)
• Roderick Strong (+1200)     

We all know about the longstanding feud between Adam Cole and MJF. Well, this match is the result of that rivalry as it took some twists and turns to get here.

Following Cole’s return, and immediate desire to get his hands on MJF, we got an in-ring segment on the October 23 episode of Dynamite that laid out the blueprint for an MJF match at Full Gear.

Cole was doing his “story time” and challenging Max before being interrupted by his teammates in Roderick Strong, Mike Bennett and Matt Taven. They discussed how they all were friends and a part of ridding MJF from AEW. They showed unity in this quest now that Cole was back again.

MFJ appeared in a video saying that he would face Strong or Cole at Full Gear, provided that either man wins three matches first. And the man to accomplish this first, would get to wrestle him.

Cole’s first match was against Buddy Matthews. And, it was his first match back in the ring since his ankle injury. Cole would win the match, but it was a weird booking and felt unnecessary. That led to a second match against Malakai Black.

Once again, the booking for that match felt weird as well. It was like Black was doing a farewell tour. Neither House of Black booking made much sense as AEW really missed the mark on both of them.

Strong took on Shane Taylor and Mortos in his first two matches. Both bouts were actually solid, especially the Mortos matchup.

Cole’s third bout was against Konosuke Takeshita. And, thankfully, AEW got this right by having Takeshita win the bout even if it was via cheating. Strong actually came out after the match to help his friend as Takeshita was about to do more damage to Cole.

That led to the Falls Count Anywhere match between Strong and Takeshita’s teammate Lance Archer, which Strong ended up winning.

As a result of the victory, Strong got to the three-win mark first and won the opportunity to face MJF at Full Gear. All that to say, Strong will end up losing the match.

AEW has a few ways to go about this. They can have MJF cheat to win the bout or the can have some kind of angle where MJF has recruited someone to help him and they destroy Strong in the process.

It would be better for the storyline if MJF wasn’t alone fighting The Undisputed Kingdom. That just makes the latter look incapable and silly. Having more participants in this feud also adds more layers, more matches, and more delays until the long-awaited MJF vs. Cole match.

AEW could actually rebuild some momentum in this storyline by going that route. Hey, Tony, feel free to use that idea.

As for the odds, there’s no value. It’s clear that the sportsbooks believe MJF will win. I don’t see a scenario where he doesn’t. In fact, the in-ring promo between Cole and O’Reilly really set things up for Strong to get injured at the hands of MJF.

I think that’s a lame idea. But what I did love was the heel promo that MJF cut on Strong. It was a ruthless verbal attack on Strong’s upbringing and reminded us why we love to hate MJF. You can watch the promo in the video above.

Bet: MJF (-5000)

Jay White vs. Hangman Page

• Jay White (+200)
• “Hangman” Adam Page (-300)

Following a lengthy absence, Jay White returned to action at AEW Grand Slam in September. He came back in great shape and a ready-made feud with both Hangman Adam Page and Christian Cage.

Page was credited with injuring White and putting him out of action for a few months. So, White returned at Grand Slam and immediately went after Page.

This set up a match at AEW WrestleDream last month. At that PPV event, I predicted that White would pick up the win, but I also said I would love for the feud to continue. Thankfully, AEW decided to go this route. 

Following White’s win at the PPV, Page would get his revenge. He cost White the match against Christian Cage for the #1 contender contract against Moxley. Additionally, Page would take out members of The Bang Bang Gang.

Now, that we set the table, it’s time to make our prediction for this match. With the push that Jay White has received since his return, and rightfully so, it’s hard to see AEW having him lose this weekend. It would serve no purpose having White lose.

A win this weekend will keep White’s push going and eventually put him on a collision course with Christian once again. It could even put him in a feud with another wrestler looking for a world title opportunity.

As I said in my preview for WrestleDream last month, Page doesn’t lose value or fall down the rankings if he loses a PPV match. His craziness and unpredictability make him a valuable commodity regardless of who he’s feuding with.

Take White to win this match and turn his attention back to Christian. As for Page, I would like to see him put in another feud with a rising baby face. Perhaps, a feud with Daniel Garcia especially if the latter wins the TNT title this weekend.

When the Full Gear odds were released for this match, on Wednesday night, I was shocked to see Hangman Adam Page listed as the betting favorite. That makes absolutely no sense. I laid out the reasons why a win for White makes more sense and that a loss wouldn’t hurt Page. Apparently, the sportsbooks don’t agree as they have Page as the sizable betting favorite.

That means we’re going to get some great betting value by taking Jay White to win this Full Gear match on Saturday night.

Bet: Jay White (+280)

AEW Four-Way Tag Team Title Match

• (c)Private Party (-5000)
• The Outrunners (+900)
• Kings of Black Throne (+1100)
• The Acclaimed (+1000)

Let me start by saying that I think this match can be very entertaining. However, it doesn’t make much sense. In fact, there are a few issues that I have with this bout. Let’s begin with how we got to this match.

AEW held a tournament to see which three teams would join Private Party (Isiah Kassidy and Marq Quen)  in this four-way title match.

The Outrunners (Truth Magnum and Turbo Floyd), one of my favorite tag teams in all of pro wrestling, beat Top Flight to qualify for the match. The Kings of the Black Throne qualified by stunning the fans with a victory over FTR in under 15 minutes. The Acclaimed (Anthony Bowens and Max Caster) were the last to qualify with a win over La Faccion Ingobernable.

Ok, now let me lay out the issues I have with this match and how AEW has backed themselves into the proverbial corner.

The biggest issue I have with this match is the fact that the outcome already feels like a given. One of my biggest gripes with WWE is that most of the PPV matches are too obvious. Most of them feel like we already know who’s going to win before the PPV even starts.

Well, that’s exactly what’s going on with this AEW tag team title match. Do you honestly think that AEW will take the belts off of Private Party after the push they got in winning the belts over The Young Bucks last month?

Private Party was going to split up if they lost to the Bucks. Instead, they won the titles. It feels impossible for AEW to have them lose the belts roughly one month after winning them for the first time.

It would make zero sense to have Private Party drop the title so soon. It basically wipes away their entire build up over the last several months which includes feuding with Moxley and The BCC.

So, if we have a foregone conclusion to this match, then what happens to the other teams?

For The Outrunners, it doesn’t hurt them at all if they don’t win the tag team titles. This team is “over” with the fans and will get the rub from having a big PPV title match.

For The Acclaimed, their status is unphased as they have another feud ready for them with The Hurt Syndicate.

The two teams that would be impacted the most by this match are Kings of the Black Throne (Malakai Black and Brody King) and FTR.

Before you scream and blow up my social media, I know that FTR is not in the match. However, they put over Kings of the Black Throne cleanly and in under 15 minutes. FTR did the job. How does it make sense to have your most prestigious tag team put over another team, just for that team to lose their next match?

Why have Kings of the Black Throne beat FTR if they’re just going to lose at the PPV. Sure, they might not take the pinfall but they still won’t win.  

The inconsistent booking with The House of Black has been atrocious. The AEW booking team should ashamed of themselves for how they have handled this talented trio.

This entire tag team match and division has me shaking my head. Thanks for letting me vent. Lol.

With that said, you have to bet on Private Party to win this match as I don’t see a scenario where they lose the belts this weekend. As you can see, the betting sites feel the same way as they have Private Party listed as massive betting favorites.

I agree with their odds based on the arguments above. However, I laughed out loud when I saw that the House of Black has the longest odds to win this match. All I can do is shake my head at the wrestling world right now. How can a faction of this elite talent feel like nothing more than glorified jobbers at television and at the sportsbooks?

Bet: Private Party (-5000)

AEW TBS Championship Match

• (c)Mercedes Mone (-1000)
• Kris Statlander (+500)       

As of this writing, the TBS title match is the only women’s match on the card. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if one more was added to the Zero Hour show.

With that said, this feud feels flat to me. And, by some of the crowd reactions, it’s not been a huge success with the fans. For starters, we just spent like six months with Krist Statlander as a heel. Now, we’re supposed to buy into her being a face again. Fans don’t really know what to do with Statlander as some crowds cheer for her and others are silent.

Then, having Statlander beat Kamille made zero sense other than AEW had nobody else for Mercedes to feud with. Which is just silly considering all of the talent on the roster.

Kamille was being built up as this unstoppable force, but she loses her first big match on television. Talk about deflating a character.

Yes, I can see the writing on the wall for Kamille and Mone to end up feuding against each other. But the path to get to that point is paved with lame storylines and decisions that make little sense.

Kamille should’ve continued to be built up as a powerhouse, unstoppable force. That would’ve lent far more weight to the inevitable split. Now, Kamille seems well below Mone’s level.

As for Statlander, it makes no sense to have her be the first woman to defeat Mone. That honor will go to someone else. Instead, Statlander will end up losing this match as expected. Hopefully, we get a more meaningful feud for Mone.

I would love to see Toni Storm feud with Mercedes. The promos would be fantastic and those two women can go in the ring.

Take Mone’s moneyline for the win this weekend despite there being no value. Speaking of “no value” there really wasn’t any value with the Mone-Statlander segment on Dynamite this weekend other than making both participants appear on the show. The Mariah May promo was far better than this in-ring segment with Mone, Statlander and Kamille.

We really need Tony and team to step up when it comes to booking the women’s division as it’s severely lacking right now.

Bet: Mercedes Mone (-1000)

AEW TNT Championship Match

• (c)Jack Perry (-1000)
• Daniel Garcia (+500)          

Ever since Daniel Garcia made a surprise return at AEW’s All-In Wembley show in August, I’ve been saying he’s going to end up becoming the TNT Champion.

In my WrestleDream breakdown, I predicted Jack Perry would win his match against Shibata and eventually lose the title to Garcia. Well, I think the time has come for this prediction to come to fruition.

Now, I picked Jack Perry to win the TNT title at Forbidden Door as I made the following declaration:

“From this group of participants, there really is only one choice to win the TNT Championship – Jack Perry. Not only will it continue his ascension, but it will also give The Elite more gold and more power. Considering they’re being positioned as the top heel faction in the promotion, any additional storylines added to their group is a good thing. The more layers, titles and feuds, the better it is for the heels and AEW as a whole.”

Winning the title definitely aided Perry and The Elite over the summer months. However, things began to become stale for this faction especially concerning The Young Bucks who are now not even on TV as they’ve gone on hiatus.

Okada will be fine with or without his teammates as he’s one of the best in the world. Plus, they’re really priming Okada for The Continental Classic, which should be great.

As for Perry, he seems directionless right now. I fear that after he loses the belt this weekend, AEW will fumble his recent run and the former Jungle Boy will end up lost in the shuffle. Personally, I still hold out hope that Perry ends up with Christian and The Patriarchy.

Garcia will win this match on Saturday and become the new TNT Champion. I’m intrigued to see who he feuds with next. I would love a feud against Hangman Page. More than likely, we’ll get a storyline feud against someone like Wheeler Yuta.

As for the betting odds, Garcia is a large favorite like most of the matches on this PPV. It’s unfortunate that the oddsmakers have nailed most of these matches, but that doesn’t mean that this TNT bout won’t still be entertaining. With that said, it’s a foregone conclusion that Garcia is your new TNT champ.

Bet: Daniel Garcia (-1000)

AEW International Title Match

• (c)Konosuke Takeshita (NA)
• Ricochet (NA)

I would like to start off this match preview and analysis by saying I absolutely hate when wrestling promotions wait until the last minute to announce a title match. It makes no sense to take this approach.

Then when you factor in the wrestlers involved in this match, it’s even more foolish to wait until Full Gear eve to make this official announcement.

Konosuke Takeshita and Ricochet are two elite wrestlers that can tear down the house. It wasn’t long ago that Ricochet debuted and there was a ton of hype for him. Additionally, last month, he was part of my favorite triple-threat match of all time along with Takeshita and Will Ospreay.

In fact, that’s where Takeshita won the International Title as a result of interference from Kyle Fletcher who turned on his former friend Ospreay. We’ll dive into that match down below.

Within the next week or so, Ricochet made it clear that Takeshita didn’t pin him. And, so he continued to chase after the International champ every chance he got. That included chasing after Takeshita in other promotions as well.

With the late announcement of this match, pro wrestling betting sites have yet to release odds for this bout as of our update to this blog. I fully expect Takeshita to be a large favorite.

I also expect Takeshita to win the match. Hopefully, it’s due to interference because a clean loss by Ricochet makes no sense considering he’s been hyped up almost to the level of Ospreay. In fact, he’s been loosely associated with everything Ospreay has been doing for the last three months.

Take Takeshita to retain the title.

Bet: Konosuke Takeshita (NA)

Will Ospreay vs. Kyle Fletcher

• Will Ospreay (-280)
• Kyle Fletcher (+185)           

If I were ranking the matches that I’m the most excited to watch this weekend, Will Ospreay vs. Kyle Fletcher would come in at second. It’s ahead of White vs. Page but slightly behind Strickland vs. Lashley. The latter is exciting because of Lashley’s AEW wrestling debut.

With that said, I believe this match will steal the show as these two men can work, fly and know each other really well. The chemistry will be evident, as will whatever story they try to tell in the match.

As you recall, Ospreay lost the International Title at WrestleDream in the three-way match with Ricochet and Takeshita. For the record, you have to watch this match if you haven’t seen it yet. It was an amazing bout that is probably the best triple threat match that I’ve ever seen.

However, I did predict the Kyle Fletcher swerve as it was pretty clear over the prior months that AEW was heading in that direction:

“Give me a “barber shop” moment this weekend, where we get the Fletcher heel turn as he, Takeshita and the new addition of Lance Archer get a huge boost to become one of the top factions in the company.”

That’s exactly what we got. Fletcher turned heel and helped his teammate Takeshita win the match. On a side note, I absolutely loved Fletcher’s head shaving promo where he talked about why he turned his back on Ospreay. It was a fantastic moment for the Aussie. This weekend could be another pivotal moment in his AEW career.

Despite my excitement for this match, I do have some concerns. Ospreay has already done the job for MJF, Swerve and Takeshita this year. Could we really see the best wrestler in the world lose another PPV match?

On the flip side, could Fletcher’s ascension and storyline survive a loss in his first PPV match since going full heel?

A loss by either man would be damaging. For starters, Ospreay is too damn good to keep losing these big matches. Second, Fletcher needs all the momentum he can get from this feud to catapult him up the ladder.

Personally, I would like to see this match end in a No Contest due to outside interference. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Mark Davis ends up turning heel as well.

Davis has zero value as a face that feuds with The Don Callis Family. However, he would have far more value if he turns heel and helps Fletcher win the match this weekend. Did you see how Davis and Fletcher barely had any interactions in the eight-man tag match on Dynamite this week? That just fuels my speculations even further.

When it comes down to putting money on things, I still have to lean towards Ospreay in this matchup. I just don’t see him losing another PPV match and neither do the online betting sites as he’s the favorite for this bout. Albeit, these are the closest odds of the night. When it comes to my wrestling fandom, I would prefer a Davis heel turn to help Fletcher win.

Bet: Will Ospreay (-280)

Swerve Strickland vs. Bobby Lashley

• Swerve Strickland (+550)
• Bobby Lashley (-1000)       

It was teased that Bobby Lashley could make his AEW Debut at WrestleDream, but AEW decided to hold it off to the Fright Night Dynamite on October 30. And, it was the smart choice as Lashley made a strong statement in his promotional debut. In fact, closing out the show with The Hurt Syndicate standing tall was great television.

Since then, things have heated up between Swerve and The Hurt Syndicate. And, now, we have an exciting PPV bout between Strickland and Lashley even if the outcome seems pretty cut and dry.

Like with the tag team title match, I don’t see how AEW can have Lashley lose his debut match. Strickland is a main event star and one of AEW’s top wrestlers. However, he’s going to be the sacrificial lamb this weekend for Lashley’s debut.

Swerve has already done the job for other wrestlers this year like Page and Daniel Bryan. So, I don’t see any issue with Strickland losing this weekend. How he loses is what I’m more interested in. Does he get squashed or does he lose because of MVP and Benjamin?

How I think AEW should book this bout is having Strickland fight back following all of Lashley’s savage beatings, but The Almighty ends up winning due to the numbers game. This way, Strickland shows his heart and perseverance, while Lashley looks like a beast.

That’s the exact opposite of what AEW did at Dynamite on November 20. They not only had Strickland outsmart the entire Hurt Syndicate, but he also got the upper hand on Lashley. And, he did it twice.

I loved everything about the Strickland vs. Hurt Syndicate feud up until Dynamite this week. First, it makes no sense to have Lashley’s first wrestling match given away for free. This man is a draw and the intrigue of watching him wrestler would’ve pumped fans for the PPV. Now, the mystery of how he looks in an AEW ring has been solved.

Then, you have Lashley take all of Strickland’s finishing moves along with a chain to the dome. The parking lot cheap shot was more than enough to give Swerve a bit of juice for this weekend. But to have him outsmart and beat all three members of the Hurt Syndicate, even if it was for just a few moments, was just stupid booking.

I have no doubt that Lashley will win this match on Saturday, I just have doubts as to how dominant he will look after this week’s TV programming. We need an unstoppable force, not another name getting outsmarted by Strickland all night long.

Bet: Bobby Lashley (-1000)

AEW World Title Match

• (c)Jon Moxley (-10000)
• Orange Cassidy (+2000)

Personally, I would absolutely love to see a feud between Moxley and Lashley for the world title. That would be amazing. Unfortunately, I don’t see AEW going this route. More than likely, Mox would drop the belt to someone else, who would then drop it to Lashley.

Could Orange Cassidy dethrone Moxley?

I’ve heard some buzz that a segment of fans think that Moxley will squash Cassidy. I also like this idea as it would keep Mox as the big, bad wolf.

I know this is getting redundant, but I don’t see Moxley losing the belt a month after beating Bryan for it. Moxley retired Bryan from full time wrestling. So, how does it make sense to have Mox lose the belt in his first PPV defense? It doesn’t.

I think it’s a forgone conclusion that Moxley wins this bout. He did the job for Cassidy over the international title and I believe he gets his revenge this weekend.

How we get to this conclusion is going to be interesting. Will Moxley squash the Orange one or will his BCC stablemates interfere?

Another rumor is that Moxley could add a member to his faction this weekend and that debuting member could cost Cassidy the match. This is another angle that I would like to see. I’ve been rooting for Miro to join this group, but he and AEW can’t seem to agree on anything.

More than likely, Mox will win this match due to help from Marina Shafir or Pac, Yuta and Claudio. It just makes the most sense and is the easiest way to book this match. I’m not rooting for this outcome, but I can see AEW taking the easy way out.

As great as Orange Cassidy has been for AEW, I just don’t see him as a world champion. There are so many other wrestlers who would make for a better champion like White, Lashley, Ospreay, and Okada.

That’s a quartet of superstars that could easily carry the company. Give me the book in 2025, and I’m making Lashley the champ for at least six months and then have Ospreay beat him. Then a triple threat feud between Ospreay, White and Okada for the title with the latter winning it.

As for this weekend’s clash, take Moxley to retain the belt and let’s hope for a surprise or two in this contest. As of now, the oddsmakers don’t see any surprises happening. They have Mox listed as the biggest betting favorite of the night.

Bet: Jon Moxley (-10000)