2024-25 NFL AFC Championship Odds and Predictions

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The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs have officially arrived. Seven teams in the AFC will battle to win the Conference Championship and earn a spot in Super Bowl 59.

As of this writing, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the odds-on favorite to win the AFC as they have all season long. They’re followed closely by the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.

These three teams are heads and shoulders above the rest of the conference. They’re expected to prove it in the AFC Playoffs beginning on January 11. Over in the NFC Conference, it appears to be a two-team race with the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.

Let’s take a look at the latest AFC Championship odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our 2024-25 AFC Championship predictions. 

AFC Championship Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens are still the top three teams favored to win the AFC Championship. However, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers surprised the league by earning Wild Card spots. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who were one of the AFC favorites in November, are now the biggest longshot at the start of the Playoffs.

AFC Playoff Teams

The following NFL teams are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2024-25 AFC Championship:

Kansas City Chiefs  

The Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season going 15-2, which earned them the top seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the Playoffs.

Although they have two losses on the year, the Week 18 loss to Denver doesn’t really count considering they rested all of their starters on both sides of the ball.

Their only legitimate loss came at Buffalo in Week 11. However, since then, the Chiefs have started to get back players that had missed numerous games due to injuries like Isaiah Pacheco and Marquise Brown. These two dynamic players will greatly help the Chiefs offense in the Playoffs.

This was a down year for the Chiefs offense as they only averaged 22.6 ppg (15^th) and 327.6 ypg (16^th). In fact, they didn’t crack the Top 10 for any major offensive statistical category except third down and fourth down conversions.

And yet, that’s really all they needed. KC was 2^nd in the league at converting 48.47% of their third downs. This means they were able to extend drives, control the ball, and keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. The same can be said for their 70.59% fourth down conversion rate that ranked third in the NFL.

Although the rest of their offensive numbers were down across the board, this Chiefs defense has been stellar all season long and a major reason why KC is tied with Detroit for the best record in the NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed just 19.2 ppg (4^th), 320.6 total ypg (9^th), 2.2 TDs per game (5^th), and 101.8 rushing yards per game (8^th). They played at an elite level and will be counted on to wreak havoc in the Playoffs.

If you get a healthy Patrick Mahomes playing to his full potential, all of his weapons healthy, and a Top 5 defense, that’s a recipe for returning to the Super Bowl for a third straight year.

Baltimore Ravens         

The 12-5 Baltimore Ravens came on strong over the last quarter of the season. They won five of their last six games since Thanksgiving week, which includes four wins in a row. The Ravens overtook a plummeting Steelers team in the standings and was able to secure the AFC North title along with the #3 seed in the AFC.

Over their four-game winning streak, the Ravens beat their opponents by the combined score of 135 to 43. Baltimore reestablished themselves as one of the best teams in the AFC and the second-odds on favorite to win the conference.

The Ravens feature one of the best offenses in the league as they’re ranked in the Top 5 for many major statistical categories. Baltimore finished 3^rd in scoring (30.5 ppg), 1^st in total yards (424.9 ypg), 3^rd in third down conversion (48.17%), 1^st in rushing (187.6 ypg), and 7^th in passing (237.4 ypg).

What was once a weakness on the team, Baltimore’s defense improved over the second half of the season as well. They ended up 9^th in scoring (21.2 ypg), 10^th in total yards (324.2 ypg), 9^th in TDs allowed (2.3), and first against the run (80.1 ypg).

Baltimore will face their rival in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite Pittsburgh’s struggles over the final stretch of the season, they’re still talented enough to beat the Ravens.

Additionally, Baltimore might be without Zay Flowers in the Wild Card game due to a knee injury. If they can get past Pitt, then they could face the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round.

Buffalo Bills 

Speaking of the Buffalo Bills, they finished 13-4 on the year after resting their players in the final weekend of the regular season. Buffalo was the first team to clinch their division having done it on December 1^st.

Josh Allen has put together an MVP-caliber season and will battle Lamar Jackson for the award. As mentioned, he might also battle Jackson and the Ravens in the Divisional Round if they both win their Wild Card matchups.

Buffalo will face Denver to start the Playoffs, which is a sneaky-good team with a top-notch defense. Yet, the Bills will get back all of their players who missed numerous games over the final two months of the season. Going into the Playoffs relatively healthy is a scary idea for the rest of the conference.  

Like the Ravens, Buffalo has an elite offense that can outscore anyone. They finished 2^nd in scoring (30.9 ppg), 10^th in total yards (359.1 ypg), 2^nd in red zone touchdowns (71.64%), 2^nd in TDs scored (3.8 TDs), 9^th in rushing yards (131.2 ypg), and 9^th in passing yards (227.9 ypg).

This is the most balanced team that Buffalo has had on offense in the Josh Allen era. They have a legitimate running game with Cook and Davis leading the charge. Third-down back Ty Johnson has been fantastic out of the backfield as well.  

Buffalo’s defense has been a Top 15 unit for most of the year. However, they did give up 86 points against the Rams and Lions, which caused concern for the postseason.

If Buffalo gets by Denver, they could face Baltimore in the Divisional Round. The winner of that game would most likely end up at Kansas City for the AFC Championship game. The road to the Super Bowl is going to be a tough one for Buffalo and they will need Allen to play like Superman if they’re to have a chance.

Los Angeles Chargers

You have to give credit to both the Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos this year. Both teams were expected to finish with losing records and near the bottom of the AFC West division. Instead, both teams greatly exceeded all expectations.

In the case of the Chargers, they came into the season with a new coach and new systems on both sides of the ball. And, like he did at San Francisco and Michigan, Jim Harbaugh turned the Chargers around in one year. They finished the regular season with an 11-6 record and earned the #5 seed in the AFC.

This was a big accomplishment as they will now take on the Houston Texans in the Wild Card Round instead of heading to Baltimore. So, the Chargers may also get a Playoff victory as well.

Let’s not overlook the fact that if they can advance to the Divisional Round, then they would face the Chiefs. LA lost both games by a combined nine points. In the second matchup on December 8, the Chargers lost 17-19 and played without star running back JK Dobbins and star receiver Ladd McConkey. Both players were out injured.

Unlike many other teams, the Chargers aren’t scared to go into Arrowhead and face the Chiefs. They finished the regular season with three straight wins and scored 34 or more points in all of them. LA has found their groove offensively and aim to continue their surprising season by moving on in the Playoffs.

Denver Broncos            

As mentioned, the Broncos were a huge surprise like the Chargers. In fact, some could argue that this team was a bigger surprise considering they started a rookie at QB, use a committee of running backs, and were coming off a highly dysfunctional season in 2023-24.

Yet, Sean Payton got this team turned around as they clinched the 7^th seed with a Week 18 win over the Chiefs’ backups.

Offensively, this team finished 10^th in scoring at 25 ppg. They were also good on third downs as they finished 5^th with a 68.18% conversion rate. That’s pretty remarkable considering that this offense took half a season before they found their rhythm.

However, Denver’s calling card this year was their defense. This unit was elite on many levels as they allowed only 18.3 ppg (3^rd), 317.1 total yards per game (7^th), 46.94% red zone TD rate (3^rd), 1.9 touchdowns per game (2^nd), and 96.4 rushing yards per game (3^rd).

For Denver to advance in the Playoffs, and upset Buffalo in the Wild Card Round, they will need to rely on their defense to stifle opposing offenses and for their rookie QB to manage the game at a high level. That’s a tough ask for this team.

Houston Texans   

The Houston Texans finished the regular season going 10-7 and winning the AFC South. The latter wasn’t too difficult considering that the rest of the division won just 15 games combined.

Houston was considered one of the top teams in the AFC coming into the season. In fact, at the midway point, they were still highly regarded. Unfortunately, they started playing teams with winning records and began losing. Houston went 4-6 to close out the year and have seemingly lost their mojo.

Houston was blown out by Baltimore on Christmas Day by the score of 31-2. It was an embarrassing performance that highlighted some of their weaknesses. Additionally, Houston is without Dell and Diggs on the offense, which has limited their passing game potential.

In fact, when looking over their offensive stats, they’ve seen a drop off from this year compared to last season when CJ Stroud took the league by storm. He certainly had a sophomore slump. It was surprising considering that Houston added veteran running back Joe Mixon to this squad.

Houston’s defense has been a Top 10 unit for most of the season, but they did struggle against winning teams. So, it will be interesting to see how things work out for them in their Wild Card matchup versus the Chargers.

The Steelers might have the largest odds to win the AFC (+3000), but I think Houston is the worst team in the AFC this postseason.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have lost four games in a row as they enter the Playoffs. Although they finished 10-7, many critics feel that this team is going to get crushed at Baltimore. I do not subscribe to that philosophy.

The Steelers were missing key players down the stretch and faced four Playoff caliber teams during that span. They lost to the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals to close out the season. It’s not like they were losing to bad teams.

Pittsburgh will have their players healthy and ready for the Playoffs. Additionally, they’re a proud franchise that will be ready once the game begins in Baltimore.

If anyone can handle the Ravens, it’s the Steelers and that ferocious defense. They’ve done a great job against Jackson in the past and are 8^th in scoring (20.4 ppg), 2^nd in third down conversion (35.29%), and 6^th against the run (98.7 ypg).

I would not count out the Black and Yellow in the Wild Card Round. This team has the potential to beat most AFC squads if they’re playing at their full potential.

AFC Wild Card Round Matchups

The following is a quick breakdown of the AFC Wild Card games:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are double-digit favorites over the Steelers depending on which sportsbook you look at. That’s largely due to how great Baltimore has looked over the last month along with how bad Pittsburgh las looked over that same timespan.

Yes, the Ravens look great, but let’s not forget that the Steelers have won eight of the last 10 matchups including four in a row before Baltimore won just before Christmas.

I think we get a big upset in the Wild Card Round with the Steelers pulling off a postseason miracle.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

The Chargers have the talent to go into Houston and win this game. That’s exactly what I believe will happen. LA’s running game, timely throws by Herbert, and an aggressive defense will lead the Chargers to victory.

I don’t have any confidence in the Texans as they look like a lame duck team that was very fortunate to make the Playoffs due to their awful division. CJ Stroud is going to face a lot of pressure and make some mistakes along the way. LA will double Nico Collins and shutdown this Houston offense.

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

Don’t take Denver lightly. This is a talented defense that will give Buffalo’s offense some problems. With that said, the Bills’ defense should have a solid outing against Bo Nix and this average offense. I expect a few turnovers and several sacks to help provide good field position for the Bills offense.

Additionally, you can expect for Josh Allen to make plays with his legs. He turned on the rushing yards in the second half of the season especially when playing against talented teams like the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams and Lions. Now that it’s the Playoffs, Allen’s gloves come off and the Superman cape goes on.

Take the Bills to win this game by at least a touchdown.

AFC Championship Predictions: Who Wins The AFC?

Kansas City will greatly benefit from a first round bye while the other six teams beat up on each other. Additionally, the Chiefs are very fortunate that Buffalo and Baltimore could face each other before KC has to play either one of them.

I like for the Bills, Steelers, and Chargers to advance to the Divisional Round. Even if the Ravens win as expected, I don’t see them getting by Buffalo in the next round. The Bills are unbeaten at home this year and want revenge against Baltimore.

Ultimately, as I have said since the preseason, until someone beats the Chiefs, you have to bet them to win the AFC and the Super Bowl. Sure, it might not happen, but they have everything lined up for another run through the AFC: first round bye, home field advantage, and only have to play the Bills or Ravens, not both.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+140) 

Previous AFC Championship Prop Bets

The following prop bets were listed throughout the season. You can look back at our predictions for these NFL props and how we thought the AFC Conference would play out.

Which Team Will Finish as the AFC #1 Seed?

Currently, the Chiefs lead the Bills and Steelers by one game for the top seed in the AFC. As mentioned, the Chiefs and Steelers play against each other on Christmas Day. Additionally, the Chiefs still play the Texans as well. And, we can’t forget how KC also has two games against the Chargers and Broncos left.

Bottom line, what looked like a cake walk of a division in the preseason is now a tough task for the two-time defending Super Bowl champs.

With that said, you have two options here with this NFL prop bet. You can either stick with the Chiefs to capture the #1 seed in the AFC or you can go with a team that offers better value.

Both the Ravens and Texans each sit with four losses on the season and could easily drop another. They’re far too risky to pick either for this wager. So, the safest approach is choosing between the Chiefs, Bills and Steelers.

Of those three, the Steelers have the best value at +700 odds. Yet, they still have two games versus the Bengals, one more against Baltimore and a Christmas game against the Chiefs. The Bills still have the 49ers, Rams and Lions on the docket.

None of the top teams have an easy remaining schedule. If Buffalo or Pittsburgh lose one more game, then they need KC to lose two more in order to finish in a tie. Do you see KC getting tripped up two more times in their final seven games? That’s the question you must ask yourself.

As of now, I do not see that happening. I think KC could possibly lose to Pittsburgh but still finish a game ahead of the Steelers and Bills to clinch the top seed. And, I’m not sold on the Chargers or Broncos beating the Chiefs either.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-200) 

To Reach 2024-25 AFC Championship Game 

I think it’s smart to automatically pencil the Chiefs into the AFC Championship game. They have played in six straight AFC Championship contests and have gone 4-2 over that span. The only question is which team will meet KC in the title game.  

Over the last four AFC Championship games, the Chiefs have played against the Bills, Bengals twice, and the Ravens last year. KC split with the Bengals in their two AFC Championship games. Those three teams are right behind the Chiefs as the odds-on favorites to make the game.  

Of the Ravens, Bengals and Bills, it’s Baltimore that has the best chance to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game for the second straight year. The Ravens have made some solid moves to improve their team, while the Bills and Bengals have questions to answer before we can put our full confidence in them.  

Houston is one team to watch out for. They could easily beat out the Bengals, Ravens or Bills to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. However, we need to see more from them to ensure they’re going to be a real contender. It’s easy to hunt the favorites as they did last year. It’s a lot harder when you become the hunted.  

As we sit in the summer months before the season even begins, the safest approach to this prop bet is taking the Chiefs and the Ravens based on their Playoff experience and roster additions.  

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+105), Baltimore Ravens (+190) 

Which AFC Division Wins The 2024-25 AFC Championship? 

• AFC North (+140) 

• AFC West (+230) 

• AFC East (+300) 

• AFC South (+425) 

The AFC North is the toughest division in the conference. In fact, it should be the best division in the NFL with four teams that should all have winning records. Let’s not forget that three of the four teams made the Playoffs last year. With a returning Joe Burrow, we could easily see three teams from this division in the Playoffs this year.  

The AFC South is the Texans to lose. The AFC East will be a battle between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. However, it’s the AFC West that has the defending Super Bowl champ and the AFC team to beat this year. Kansas City got better, while the rest of the teams in the West got worse. I expect the Chiefs to run away with the AFC West, take the top seed in the AFC, and represent the conference in the Super Bowl for the third straight year.  

Bet: AFC West (+230)