2024-25 NFL AFC Championship Odds and Predictions

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On Sunday, January 26, the NFL Championship Round takes place as the final four teams battle to win their respective conferences and earn spots in the 2025 Super Bowl.

The undercard for Championship Sunday is the NFC Conference Championship game that pits NFC East rivals the Washington Commanders versus the Philadelphia Eagles. These two teams will face off for the third time this season and for the right to go to SB 59.

The main event of Championship Sunday is the AFC Conference Title game that features the Buffalo Bills versus the Kansas City Chiefs. This is the fourth time that these teams have faced each other in the last five years of the Playoffs. It’s also the second time that they have met in the AFC Championship game over the last few years.

This weekend’s matchup is a legacy defining game for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. It’s also a chance for the Kansas City Chiefs to take one more step towards NFL immortality as they try to win three Super Bowls in a row.

Will the Mahomes Era Chiefs remain undefeated in the Playoffs against the Bills or will Buffalo finally end Kansas City’s reign as the king of the AFC?

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our AFC Championship Game predictions for the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs. 

What Channel Is the AFC Championship Game On?

• Sunday Night Football Channel: CBS and Paramount+
• Sunday Night Football Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
• Sunday Night Football Announcers: Jim Nantz and Tony Romo

AFC Championship Game Betting

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for the AFC Championship Game and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as the betting favorite at -125 odds. They went as high as -135, and are now sitting in a range of -125 to -135. The Buffalo Bills opened as a +105 underdog and now sit at a range of +105 to +115. The Chiefs opened with a spread of -1.5 points. Most sportsbooks now have the Chiefs favored by two points.

The Total opened at 48.5 points, dropped as low as 47.5 total points, before settling at the current Over/Under of 48 total points.

AFC Championship Odds

The following AFC Championship odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have played against each other 56 times. Currently, the Bills lead the all-time series with a 30-25-1 record. Buffalo has won three of the last four meetings including in November when they beat the Chiefs 30 to 21.

However, The Chiefs have gone 3-0 versus the Bills in their last three Playoff meetings including last year in Buffalo. The last time the Bills and Chiefs met in KC for a Playoff game, was the infamous OT victory for the Chiefs.

That game ended up leading to a rule change for both teams to get the ball in OT provided that the team winning the coin toss doesn’t score a touchdown.

The Bills have won three of the last four games in Kansas City. Yet, that one loss was an AFC Divisional Round game. The Chiefs have a 15-15 all-time record at home versus the Bills.

AFC Championship Game Betting Trends

Check out the following Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting trends:

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

• Chiefs are 5-5 SU in last 10 meetings
• Bills are 4-2 SU in last six games
• Chiefs are 5-5 ATS in last 10 contests
• Bills are 4-2 ATS in last 10 games
• Bills are 8-3 ATS in last 11 road games at KC
• Over is 6-4 in last 10 matchups

Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

• 12-2 SU in last 14 games
• 9-1 SU in last 10 AFC games
• 4-1 SU in last five AFC West games
• 10-4 ATS in last 14 games
• Over is 8-3 in last 11 games
• Over is 4-1 in last five January games

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• 18-2 SU in last 20 games
• 12-0 SU in last 12 games
• 16-2 SU in last 18 AFC games
• 3-9 ATS in last 12 games
• 1-6 ATS in last seven Sunday games
• Under is 6-1 in last seven games
• Under is 8-1 in last nine January games

AFC Championship Game Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our AFC Championship Game NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Buffalo’s offense greatly outperformed the Chiefs’ offense this season. However, the Chiefs’ defense was notably better than Buffalo’s defense. Additionally, both teams had some missing pieces in their Week 11 game that will be available in this AFC Title game.

Buffalo’s offense is averaging 30.7 ppg, which is 2^nd in the NFL. The Chiefs have the third best scoring defense that allows only 18.9 ppg. Buffalo is a Top 10 offense in regards to yardage as they’re 10^th in total yards (360.5 ypg), 9^th in rushing (136.2 ypg), and 11^th in passing (224.3 ypg).

The Chiefs are 9^th in yardage allowed (324.7 ypg), 8^th against the run (104.4 ypg), and 19^th against the pass (220.3 ypg).

In their Week 11 matchup, the Bills offense scored 30 points, threw for 262 yards and rushed for 104 yards. Those numbers are at or above the Chiefs’ averages.

In the Playoffs, Buffalo has averaged 29 ppg, while the Chiefs gave up just 14 points to Houston. No offense to the Texans, but their offense isn’t as good as Buffalo’s and that’s largely due to Josh Allen and that offensive line.

The Bills also controlled the ball by winning the time of possession battle 34:03 to 25:57. This is a recipe for beating the Chiefs. However, that’s easier said than done in the Playoffs.

With that in mind, Buffalo has not struggled to put up points against the Chiefs in the postseason. In their three previous matchups, the Bills have averaged 26.3 ppg.

Josh Allen has had strong performances against the Chiefs in the postseason before. However, the Bills showed last weekend versus the Ravens that they can win without Allen having to put up huge numbers. This is the most balanced offense that Buffalo has had with Allen at the helm.

They gave the Chiefs’ defense numerous problems during the regular season meeting. Buffalo has become even more proficient at running the ball since that matchup. Just look at their consistency against the Ravens’ top run defense last weekend.

Bills Defense vs. Chiefs Offense

While the Bills were scoring 26.3 ppg in the three previous Playoff games versus the Chiefs, KC was averaging 35.6 points per game. But in their Week 11 meeting, the Chiefs scored only 21 points.

Additionally, the Chiefs offense hasn’t been as explosive as previous seasons as they’ve only averaged 22.7 ppg on the season, 322.1 total yards per game, 102.2 rushing yards per game, and 219.8 passing yards per game. All of these numbers put them at the middle of the pack.

Sure, this team steps up big time in the Playoffs. Part of that is not turning the ball over and making costly mistakes with penalties. In the Week 11 matchup, Mahomes threw two interceptions against Buffalo.

Since that game, the Chiefs got Pacheco and Brown back. These two will definitely provide Mahomes more weapons. Yet, the Bills didn’t have All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano for this game. We all saw his impact on the game last weekend versus the Ravens.

This weekend, he will have to be excellent in the passing game in order to limit Travis Kelce. That’s easier said than done.

The Bills defense showed up versus the Broncos and the Ravens in the Playoffs so far. Both of those offenses are just as good as the Chiefs’ offense this season. However, those two teams don’t have Patrick Mahomes.

For the Bills to have any chance at winning, the defense will have to limit this Chiefs offense because we all know how good Mahomes is in crunch time.

Who Wins The AFC: Bills or Chiefs?

A few things should be noted in two of the Bills losses to the Chiefs. We all know about the 13 seconds debacle and OT loss. The other thing is that last year’s Divisional Round matchup saw Buffalo drop a go-ahead touchdown late in the game and then miss the game-tying field goal within the final two minutes.

This is not the same Buffalo team as we saw in those two close Playoff losses. Many pundits will argue that this Bills team is better, because they’re a more balanced team. Sure, KC still has the better roster, but so did the Baltimore Ravens.

Playing mistake free football in the Playoffs is the KC way of winning. That’s exactly what Buffalo has adopted as well. In fact, they were one of the best in the NFL at this during the regular season and have excelled at in in the Playoffs.

Additionally, Buffalo has limited their penalties and were the least sacked team in the NFL this year. So, not only is Allen not turning over the ball, he’s not getting sacked either.

It should also be noted that Buffalo didn’t have Coleman or Kincaid for the Week 11 game versus Buffalo. These are two key cogs in the Bills offense. I would argue their about as important, if not more, than Brown and Pacheco for the Chiefs.

KC still had Kelce, Hopkins and Hunt. Buffalo’s passing attack relied on Mack Hollins, Shakir, and Samuel. Those names don’t hold as much value as the Chiefs’ trio I mentioned.

Digging deeper, we see that the Chiefs struggle to protect Mahomes. Buffalo caused a lot of problems for Mahomes in Week 11. The Houston Texans got after Mahomes in the Divisional Round. So, there is a huge vulnerability here.

Also, if there’s one team that’s built to beat the Chiefs in KC, it’s Buffalo. This is the one team that has lost the most to the Chiefs in the postseason over the recent years and have been building a squad to dethrone the Champs.

And, that’s exactly what I think will happen. Ever since the preseason, I have said until someone beats the Chiefs, you have to pick them to win the AFC and the Super Bowl. Well, I think this is the year that someone does.

Buffalo is at near full strength on both sides of the ball. The offense is playing the best team football since Allen was drafted in 2018. Buffalo can run the ball, has a scary Play Action game, and still has Josh Allen to go full superman on the Chiefs defense.

The calmness, confidence, and intelligence that Allen is playing at, reminds me of Patrick Mahomes who is one of the greatest QBs of all time.

I think Buffalo’s offense will expose this KC defense once again. Additionally, I believe the Bills defense will step up and play their best postseason performance versus the Chiefs in this series of Playoff games.

Buffalo has shown they are willing to play man defense and go after the QB, which caused Lamar Jackson problems last weekend and Bo Nix the weekend prior. Additionally, Buffalo has one of the best zone defenses in the league. They will get after Mahomes, disrupt his timing, make him get out of the pocket and keep a spy on him.

On the other side of the ball, I expect Allen to run for touchdowns, throw touchdowns, and play one of the best games of his career. I also expect this run game to do the same.

Bet: Buffalo Bills (+110), Bills +2 (+110), Over 48 points (-110)

AFC Championship Game Prop Bets

The following AFC Championship Game prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Total Rushing Touchdowns

• Over 2.5 TDs (+130)
• Under 2.5 TDs (-160)

In the Week 11 meeting, the two teams combined for three rushing touchdowns. Buffalo had all three of them and I see something similar happening this weekend. In fact, I also see the Chiefs picking up a rushing touchdown as well. The Bills put up three rushing touchdowns last weekend on the Ravens who had a better run defense than the Chiefs do.

Take the Over in this one as both teams will need a competent ground game in order to take pressure of their QBs and to not be predictably one dimensional.

Bet: Over 2.5 TDs (+130)

Buffalo Bills Rushing Yards

• Over 134.5 yards (-115)
• Under 134.5 yards (-115)

In the Week 11 game, Buffalo had 104 rushing yards. However, for this team to win the game, I believe they need to go over 135 rushing yards. That’s only a few yards below their season average of 136.2 yards per game.

Buffalo is three-deep at the running back position. Plus, they have Josh Allen who will need to run the ball more this game in order to pick up first downs and possibly even score in the red zone.

The Chiefs gave up 149 rushing yards to the Houston Texans last weekend, which bodes well for the Bills this Sunday.

Bet: Over 134.5 yards (-115)

Both Teams To Score 20 Points

• Yes (-110)
• No (-120)

The Bills average 30.7 ppg and the Chiefs average 22.7 ppg this season. Buffalo has put up 29 ppg in the Playoffs so far and the Chiefs scored 24 points versus the Texans.

In all three of their Playoff games in the Allen-Mahomes era, both teams have scored over 20 points apiece. This might be my favorite bet for the entire game.

Bet: Yes (-110)

Buffalo Bills Team Touchdowns

• Over 2.5 TDs (-115)
• Under 2.5 TDs (-115)

In those 30.7 ppg averaged on the year, Buffalo has tallied 3.7 touchdowns per game which was third in the league. They put up at least three touchdowns in each of their two Playoff games. They also scored four touchdowns in the Week 11 matchup versus the Chiefs.

Lastly, Buffalo won’t beat the Chiefs if they have to settle for field goals. So, expect the Bills to score at least three touchdowns this weekend.

Bet: Over 2.5 TDs (-115)

Best Bets For The AFC Championship Game

Our best bets for the AFC Championship Game are as follows:

• Buffalo Bills (+110)
• Both Teams To Score 20 points (-110)
• Buffalo Bills Over 2.5 Touchdowns (-115)

I think this is the year that Buffalo finally overcomes Mt. Mahomes and the Chiefs. You can certainly take the Chiefs in this matchup and nobody would fault you since they’re the best team in the league as of now.

With that said, Buffalo’s strengths matchup well with the Chiefs’ weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Additionally, they will have more key players in this game than in Week 11.

I would argue that Milano being back is a bigger deal than anyone returning for the Chiefs. This also includes being a bigger deal than Coleman and Kincaid who missed the Week 11 matchup for Buffalo as well.

My favorite wager for this game is both teams scoring at least 20 points each. In their three previous Playoff meetings, the Bills averaged 26.3 ppg and the Chiefs put up 35.6 ppg. Buffalo scored 30 on the Chiefs in November. They’re averaging 29 ppg in the postseason so far.

The Chiefs put up 24 points versus the Texans last weekend, and they always find a way to put up at least 21 in their home Playoff games.

Lastly, for Buffalo to go over 20 points, they will have to score at least 2.5 TDs. Buffalo can’t beat the Chiefs on field goals alone. Buffalo averages 3.7 touchdowns per game, have put up more than three touchdowns per game in their two postseason contests, and scored four touchdowns on the Chiefs in Week 11.