2024-25 NFL AFC West Odds and Predictions

Is there any other division in the American Football Conference that’s more of a foregone conclusion than the AFC West? The answer is a resounding “No”. The Kansas City Chiefs are not only the odds-on favorites to win Super Bowl 59, but they’re basically a lock to play in the AFC Championship game for a seventh straight year. 

The NFL odds also indicate that the Chiefs are the biggest betting favorites to win their division in the league. If they do, it would be their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Needless to say, Kansas City casts a massive shadow over the other NFL teams in the West. 

Is there any value or reason to bet on the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos? Let’s examine the latest AFC West odds and prop bets, courtesy of the top online betting sites, and make our 2024-25 AFC West Division predictions. 

AFC West Division

2024 Kansas City Chiefs Season Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs were the team everybody had their eye on for much of the 2023 season, and not just because of the fact that they were the defending Super Bowl champs. The relationship between Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift became a media sensation. 

Last year, Mahomes embraced the short passing game to accommodate the ability of his group of receivers. In 2023 his Intended Air Yards (the average number of yards beyond the line of scrimmage his pass attempts traveled) was 6.5, which was 30th among all qualified quarterbacks. By comparison, with Hill, he was getting the ball down the field more. In 2020 his Intended Air Yards were 8.4 per pass (ranking him 12th). That’s obviously quite a difference. You saw the results; the Chiefs won these last two Super Bowls. 

Now they have addressed the passing game with people who can get down the field. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who might prove to be the kind of long ball threat he was in his first couple of years at Baltimore.

Xavier Worthy may not become another Tyreek Hill, but the rookie from Texas set the record for the fastest 40-yard dash ever at the NFL Combine – 4.21 seconds. 

But you know, the big factors in Kansas City being able to surge to their third Super Bowl title in the Mahomes era were the defense and the running game. Isiah Pacheco can go inside; he can go outside. And he racked up 935 yards on 4.6 per carry. It wasn’t about how often KC ran the ball (only 39.7% of the time), but they made the run work for them. 

Defensively, the Chiefs permitted just 5.4 yards per pass, and registered 57 sacks. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis combined for 21 of them. But they came from everywhere.

The big question entering this season involves the second-round pick from 2023, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who set a rookie record with 26 receptions in the postseason. Rice was involved in a hit-and-run accident, got charged with aggravated assault, and with regard to what kind of suspension time he might incur, his status is unknown. 

2024-25 Kansas City Chiefs Win Total 

• Over 11.5 (-115)
• Under 11.5 (-105)

The Chiefs enter the season tied for the 16^th toughest schedule (.502). They have a few tough games to begin the season, but a Week 6 Bye could help this team turn things around if they get off to a rough start. 

Looking at the remaining 12 games, the Chiefs could end up stacking wins and earning the #1 seed in the AFC. I expect their offense to be even better than the last two seasons, which is scary for the rest of the AFC. The more weapons that Mahomes has, the deadlier this offense is. 

Even if the Chiefs go 3-3 over their first six games, which is possible, they should easily go 9-2 over the remaining slate. Factor in a weak division and the Mahomes magic, this team should win at least 12 or 13 games.

Bet: Over 11.5 (-115)

2024-25 Kansas City Chiefs Record After 5 Games

• 3 Wins (+180)
• 4 Wins (+200)
• 2 Wins (+325)
• 5 Wins (+550)
• 1 Win (+850)
• 0 Wins (+4000)

The Chiefs play the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, Chargers and Saints over their first five games. Baltimore, Cincinnati and New Orleans are in Arrowhead. I see the Chiefs splitting the two with the Bengals and Ravens, but they should win the other three. 

Although the Falcons have improved, Kansas City will sweep the NFC North division this year. The Chargers tend to play the Chiefs tough, but Los Angeles will need a few months to really hit their stride after bringing in a new coach, new offensive and defensive systems, and seeing some key starters leave the team. 

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs win all five games to start the season and head into their Week 6 Bye with a ton of momentum. However, I think Baltimore or Cincy will steal a win at Arrowhead. So, I’m betting that the Chiefs go 4-1 over their first five games. 

Bet: 4 Wins (+200)

Will The Kansas City Chiefs Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (-550)
• No (+375)

The Kansas City Chiefs have the largest odds to make the Playoffs. Only the NFC West San Francisco 49ers come remotely close (-450) to the Chiefs. These odds offer no value, but it’s an absolute no brainer that the Chiefs make the Playoffs and threaten to win their third straight Super Bowl. 

Bet: Yes (-550)

2024 Las Vegas Raiders Season Preview

After a listless 26-14 loss to the Detroit Lions, the Raiders decided that a change was needed. The Las Vegas Raiders ended up firing head coach Josh McDaniels and replacing him with Antonio Pierce, who earned the job for the upcoming season as well. 

When Pierce took over, he immediately shelved QB Jimmy Garoppolo and moved rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell into the starting spot. After completing 62% with 12 touchdowns and seven INT’s, he’ll be involved in a competition for the starting job with former Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew.

Josh Jacobs departed Vegas for Green Bay, but Pierce is confident enough in Zamir White (451 yards last year) along with ex-Viking Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube, a sixth-rounder out of New Hampshire who impressed scouts at the Senior Bowl.

There is some reason for the Silver and Black to be optimistic about the receiver corps. Working without former college teammate Derek Carr, Davante Adams caught over 100 passes, but averaged only eleven yards. Michael Gallup, formerly of the Cowboys, is a newly-signed free agent. Jakobi Meyers is a holdover (71 catches for 807 yards last year). They’ve got two great tight ends in Michael Meyer and 2024 first-round draft pick Brock Bowers. 

Maxx Crosby chases quarterbacks like an animal, and the Raiders took a step toward solidifying the middle of the defensive line with Christian Wilkins (with Miami last season). Pierce loves the way sixth-year LB Robert Spillane worked out in the season’s second half. Don’t sleep on this defense. The Raiders are slowly building a real contender. 

2024-25 Las Vegas Raiders Win Total 

• Over 6.5 (-130)
• Under 6.5 (+100)

The NFL schedule makers didn’t do the Raiders any favors with the 8^th toughest schedule (.512). Fortunately, they do have a Week 10 Bye, which pretty much splits the season in half. Unfortunately, the first half is going to be brutal with games against the Ravens, Rams, Chiefs, and Bengals. All four will be losses. 

The other five games are against the Chargers, Browns, Panthers, Broncos and Steelers. I can see the Raiders winning at least two of these games. They play the Chargers in Week 1, which is a toss-up as some teams tend to take a few weeks before getting into rhythm. 

The second half of the season will result in at least two losses with the Chiefs, Dolphins and Falcons on the slate. However, games against the Broncos, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Saints and Chargers look possible for victories. 

If the Raiders can get steady play from their quarterback position, and improve on their defense, this team could be .500 or better. Unfortunately, these are big “ifs”. Do you really want to wager on O’Connell or Minshew to get seven or more wins? I certainly do not. 

I think the Raiders are a season away from contending for a Wild Card spot. Take the Under for this NFL prop bet. 

Bet: Under 6.5 (+100)

2024-25 Las Vegas Raiders Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+175)
• 3 Wins (+250)
• 1 Win (+300)
• 4 Wins (+500)
• 0 Wins (+1000)
• 5 Wins (+2000)

The Raiders play the Chargers, Ravens, Panthers, Browns and Broncos to open the season. This could be a 2-3 or 3-2 stretch depending on how good the Raiders are this year. Unfortunately, it’s all downhill after this stretch. Nevertheless, let’s play it safe by taking two wins. If you want to be more aggressive, go with the three wins option.

Bet: 2 Wins (+175) 

Will The Las Vegas Raiders Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+320)
• No (-450)

The Raiders have some of the longest odds to make the Playoffs. Only teams like the NFC East Giants, NFC South Panthers, Patriots, and Titans have longer odds. I think this team is a quarterback away from making the Playoffs. This year will be a transitional one, but I do see Las Vegas drafting a quarterback in 2025, which will help elevate this team to a winning record and contending for a Playoff spot in the 2025-26 season.

Bet: No (-450)

2024 Denver Broncos Season Preview

Russell Wilson was already in place when Sean Payton arrived as head coach, but the feeling was that after the nightmare Wilson and the Denver Broncos had been through with Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson might feel more at home. 

Well, he made himself at home alright; apparently Wilson had his own office at Bronco headquarters, and that irked Payton. If you were wondering whether these guys were ever on the same page, all you have to know is that Wilson is gone and Payton may be going with a rookie quarterback for 2024.

Things looked disastrous early on, especially on the defensive side. After allowing 70 points and 76 yards against Miami, these guys actually settled down and played some decent football. Denver lost five of its first six games, but ultimately finished just one game under the .500 mark.

In the off-season, Payton dropped Wilson, and the quest for a new quarterback began. Zach Wilson was acquired, but it’s a joke to think that the future Broncos could rest in the hands of this former Jet. Jarrett Stidham, who was thought highly of by Bill Belichick at one time, is on hand, but he is a backup, plain and simple.

Some teams went crazy looking for quarterbacks in the first round of the draft, and maybe Denver was trying to put together a deal, but the Broncos ended up taking Oregon QB Bo Nix with the 12^th overall pick. 

In Denver, the ground game is going to have to kick in. Javonte Williams came off a knee injury and had 774 yards. Jaleel McLaughlin averaged over five yards a carry and is pushing for more playing time this year.

Ultimately, for the Broncos to get to the next level, Nix will have to stretch defenses a little. Can he do that?

2024-25 Denver Broncos Win Total 

• Over 5.5 (+100)
• Under 5.5 (-130)

The Broncos come into the 2024-25 NFL season with the 20^th toughest schedule (.495). Unfortunately, NFL oddsmakers believe that Denver is going to be awful this year. In fact, the Broncos are tied with the Panthers for the second lowest Over/Under win total. Only the AFC East Patriots have a lower O/U on the boards with 4.5 wins. 

Denver was gifted a Week 14 Bye, but the season will be long over by then as this team’s Playoff hopes will probably be crushed before Veteran’s Day. 

The Broncos have made numerous changes to their roster and are hoping that young players will step up to contribute. By the end of the year, we will see the potential of this team. However, that won’t translate into wins. 

I can’t even see how Denver will win 5 games, let alone go Over 5.5 wins. The Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Seattle and New Orleans are the only teams they will have a shot against. Even if they are able to split with the Chargers and Raiders, the Broncos will have a hard time winning three more games. Take the Under.

Bet: 5.5 wins (-130)

2024-25 Denver Broncos Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+180)
• 1 Win (+225)
• 3 Wins (+275)
• 0 Wins (+600)
• 4 Wins (+850)
• 5 Wins (+4000)

Denver opens the season on the road in three of their first four games. Those road contests are at Seattle, Tampa Bay and New York. They have home contests against the Steelers and Raiders. 

The Broncos might be able to get one of those two home games, but this team went 3-5 on the road last year and I don’t see them winning any of their road matchups over the first five weeks. They will be lucky to pick up one victory over their first five games.

Bet: 1 Win (+225)

Will The Denver Broncos Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+650)
• No (-1100)

Only the New England Patriots have longer odds to make the Playoffs than the Broncos. Both teams are in a rebuilding mode with new quarterbacks taking the helm. Additionally, both franchises are hoping that young players can step up and contribute right away. 

Unfortunately, both teams will fall well short of making the postseason. In fact, both teams could be competing for the #1 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. In Denver’s case, their future is a little brighter and I expect this team to be above .500 in the 2025-26 season. 

Bet: No (-1100)

2024 Los Angeles Chargers Season Preview

It wasn’t all that long ago that Brandon Staley was a very trendy assistant in the NFL. As defensive coordinator of the Rams, he had led that defense to the #1 position. Trendy assistants are often in-demand candidates for head coaching positions, and to get his job, Staley didn’t have to go far, as he was hired by the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Staley’s difficulties as a head coach didn’t have as much to do with his defensive scheme as it did his in-game decision-making and his communication with the players. The Bolts had a 4-4 record after eight games, and then proceeded to win one game the rest of the season.

After a 63-21 loss to the Raiders, the owners had enough. So, Staley was told to pack up his office, and the rumors started to fly about possible successors, including Jim Harbaugh.

The Michigan coach’s stock rose after the Wolverines won the National Championship. And he officially became the head coach on January 24, 2024.

A lot of coaches talk about coming in and “changing the culture,” but with Harbaugh, it really happens. In this particular instance, it means making this a more hard-nosed team on the offensive side of the ball. Little brother John’s Baltimore Ravens display those same characteristics, and the Chargers picked up two Baltimore running backs in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. This won’t be a team that’s shy about playing a little smashmouth.

And that is precisely why no one should be surprised that Harbaugh grabbed the best available offensive lineman in the first round of the draft. If Joe Alt of Notre Dame is as good as many people think he’s going to be, that would complete one of the league’s best tackle duos, along with Rashawn Slater, who came to the Bolts in 2021 and promptly made All-Pro. 

So, they’ll have two building blocks for the ground game who can also protect QB Justin Herbert, who threw for 3134 yards and 20 touchdowns.

At any rate, it would not be a bad thing if Harbaugh got Herbert some more help. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams aren’t around anymore, and Austin Ekeler took a walk via free agency. Ladd McConkey, a wideout, was drafted in the second round out of Georgia, and the Bolts certainly hope that TCU alum Quentin Johnston, can fulfill some of his promise.

One of the things that makes the Chargers an interesting proposition is that you know Harbaugh has gotten results wherever he’s gone. Getting back to some basics is not a bad approach, but this may not be an instant process.

2024-25 Los Angeles Chargers Win Total 

• Over 8.5 (-150)
• Under 8.5 (+120)

The Chargers enter the season tied for the 27^th most difficult schedule (.478). Over the first nine weeks, the Chargers have a handful of winnable games and a Week 5 Bye. Although an early Bye Week isn’t ideal for any team, Los Angeles could benefit from it if they get off to a rocky start. 

With that said, I am having a hard time finding nine wins on the schedule for the Chargers. Sure, they can sweep the Broncos and Raiders if L.A. plays as well as Harbaugh hopes. However, that might be too tall of a task. More than likely, the Chargers split with those two teams and finish 2-4 in the AFC West. 

I like this team to beat the Panthers, Cardinals, Patriots and Titans. Unfortunately, that’s 6-11 or 7-10 at best. Take the Under for this prop bet, despite the Harbaugh hype. This team is a year away from being a Playoff contender. 

Bet: Under 8.5 wins (+120)

2024-25 Los Angeles Chargers Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+150)
• 1 Win (+225)
• 3 Wins (+225)
• 4 Wins (+750)
• 5 Wins (+1800)
• 0 Wins (+2200)

Los Angeles plays the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs and then the Broncos after their Week 5 Bye. I actually see this team winning two or three games depending on how they do against the Raiders in Week 1. Let’s go with three wins since the odds are more appealing and they get the Raiders at home in a 50-50 matchup. Plus, I like Herbert over Minshew or O’Connell. 

Bet: 3 Wins (+225)

Will The Los Angeles Chargers Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+105)
• No (-135)

I really like the value of the Chargers missing the Playoffs. -135 odds for a team that will struggle to get even close to a winning record is quite remarkable. The AFC is deep this year and it’s going to take at least 10 wins to get one of the three Wild Card spots. 

The AFC North has four teams that can all finish with winning records. And the AFC East has three teams that can all make the Playoffs (Bills, Jets, Dolphins). That’s at least five teams that will have better records than the Chargers. Take the “No” option and enjoy this value. 

Bet: No (-135)

AFC West Division Odds

• Kansas City Chiefs -250
• Los Angeles Chargers +325
• Las Vegas Raiders +1000
• Denver Broncos +1600

As I started off this article, it’s a foregone conclusion that the Chiefs will win the AFC West. Only the Houston Texans in the AFC South come remotely close to Kansas City’s runaway divisional train. These odds are only going to grow as the season progresses. Jump on the Chiefs right now to squeeze out the little value that’s left. 

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -250

AFC West Exact Order Of The Division

We pretty much know that the Chiefs will finish in first place and that the Broncos will finish in last place. There isn’t any debating these facts. What remains a debate is which team will finish second in the AFC West. 

According to these Bet365 odds, the Chargers are favored to finish second with +110 odds. The Raiders are favored to finish third with +120 odds, and have +350 odds to finish second. 

As you saw above, the Chargers are tabbed with an O/U of 8.5 wins and the Raiders are tabbed with an O/U of 6.5 wins. Do you really think that Los Angeles will win two more games than Las Vegas. 

If you want to chase the payout then take the Raiders as these two teams will finish very close to each other. In fact, I can see it being a game apart or a tiebreaker that determines the seeding. 

For those wanting to be more cautious, take the Chargers to finish second. Just make sure to place a small wager on this prop bet as the uncertainty of second and third could cost you some winnings.

Bet: Chiefs 1st (-250), Chargers 2nd (+110), Raiders 3rd (+120), Broncos 4th (-180)

AFC West Division Top 2 Finishing Position

• Kansas City Chiefs & Los Angeles Chargers (+130)
• Kansas City Chiefs & Las Vegas Raiders (+190)
• Kansas City Chiefs & Denver Broncos (+225)
• Los Angeles Chargers & Las Vegas Raiders (+2000)
• Los Angeles Chargers & Denver Broncos (+2200)
• Las Vegas Raiders & Denver Broncos (+2500)

With it being almost 100% certain that the Chiefs win the AFC West division, we can eliminate the other three options for this NFL prop bet. So, once again, we return to the debate of the Chargers and Raiders finishing second. 

In the prop bet above, we took the Chargers to finish second. However, if we go with the Raiders in this wager, we will get +190 odds. That’s better than the Chiefs and Chargers at +130 odds. For me, I’m taking the Raiders just to hedge my bet above. You can certainly continue the trend of Chiefs and Chargers to finish as the Top 2 teams in the AFC West. 

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs & Las Vegas Raiders (+190)