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The NFL Playoffs are kicking off this weekend with six Wild Card games. This postseason slate of action provides us with some appealing matchups and a juicy parlay card.
In Week 18, we came a Dallas Cowboys win away from concluding the regular season with a winning parlay card. Unfortunately, the Dallas loss left us going 3-1. It should come as no surprise that the Cowboys let us down. They’ve been doing that to their fans for the last decade or more.
The Broncos, Vikings and Jaguars all won at home as expect. And, this weekend, we have a few more NFL picks that should provide with a win, as well.
Our parlay card starts with the first Wild Card game of the weekend as we roll with the Los Angeles Rams in Carolina. We also like the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills to win on the road, as well. The only home team that has our confidence is the New England Patriots.
Now, that we’re one step closer to the Super Bowl, it’s time to step up our parlay success at the top sports betting sites. That means we’ll be skipping the Underdogs for this weekend’s NFL parlay ticket.
With that said, NFL betting can be tricky at times. Fortunately, NFL parlays are one way to maximize betting value when the boards seem difficult to decipher. Let’s take a closer look at the best NFL parlays for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Picks and Parlays
| Team | Odds | Payout Per Leg |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | -600 | $16.67 |
| Buffalo Bills | -115 | $118.12 |
| New England Patriots | -205 | $224.52 |
| Houston Texans | -170 | $415.41 |
This week, we’re taking four NFL teams that are all favored. Heading into the Playoffs, Favorites are 178-93-1, which is a 65.7% winning rate. Favorites went 7-9 SU in Week 18.
Three of our Wild Card picks are road teams: Rams at Carolina, Bills at Jacksonville, and Texans at Pittsgurgh. On the season road teams are 125-146-1, which is a 46% winning rate.
The Patriots are our lone home pick. Home Teams went 146-125-1 with a 53.7% winning rate.
Over the last few months, we’ve gone 29-12 in our NFL parlay picks, which led to a winning ticket (4-0) in Week 11 and five 3-1 records for Weeks 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, and 18. Weeks 13 and 14 were a 2-2 split. Week 17 saw a 3-2 finish on a larger parlay ticket.
As we head into the Playoffs, we haven’t had a losing record with our parlay picks in any given week of action.
With that said, make sure you continue to monitor the NFL odds throughout the week as they could shift as we get closer to kickoff, which will impact your total payout for this parlay card. For more NFL advice and picks, check out the best handicapping membership in the industry.
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NFL Parlay Picks
The following is our best parlay NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend:
NFL Parlay Pick #1: Los Angeles Rams (-600) vs. Carolina Panthers
While the Carolina Panthers are 7-3 SU against the Rams in the last 10 meetings, including upsetting LA in November, I just don’t see this veteran-led Los Angeles squad lose a second time to Carolina.
The Rams are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games, 12-3 SU as the favorite, and 8-3 SU in non-division games this season. Carolina is 2-8 SU in its last 10 January games and 1-4 SU in their last five Saturday games.
The Panthers might have exceeded expectations to make the Playoffs, and pulled off a few major upsets along the way, but they have lost three of their last four games which includes two in a row. So, it’s not like they’re coming into this Wild Card matchup on a roll.
While I do see the Panthers covering the large spread, I like the Rams to win this game and move on to the Divisional Round.
LA’s offense will be the difference maker in this matchup. The Rams are no.1 in scoring (30.5 ppg), total yards (394.6 ypg) and passing yards (268.1 ypg). They also average the fewest penalties per game and have the fourth fewest turnovers. Carolina doesn’t rank in the Top 10 for anything on offense or defense.
Look for Matthew Stafford to lead this Rams offense against an overmatched Carolina defense. And, I expect the Rams defense to answer the call this Saturday, unlike in their November matchup.
NFL Parlay Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (-115) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Give credit to Jacksonville for their stellar season. But they’re going up against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills who have a huge chip on their shoulder and a desire to rewrite the narrative that they can’t win a road Playoff game.
Allen will enter his 7th postseason and his Playoff numbers are incredible: 3,359 yards, 33 TD passes, 8 rushing TDs, and a 65.7% completion rate in 13 games.
Since 2019, Allen’s Bills are averaging 27.4 ppg. Yet, the last time that Buffalo played the Jaguars in the Playoffs (2017), they lost. However, that was the season that Buffalo ended their longstanding postseason drought.
The Bills and Jaguars are 10-10 in all-time matchups. This weekend’s Wild Card game will break the tie. While the Jags have a strong team on both sides of the ball, including the no.1 run defense, Buffalo has Josh Allen. So, until a team like the Jags beat Allen and company, I am rolling with the Bills in this one.
The Jags rank 30th in sack rate, which means that Allen will have time to throw the ball against a defense that allows 218.1 ypg. The Jags face the most passing plays especially since they have a stout run game. Look for Brady to get Cook going with passes out of the backfield, as well.
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in their last six games and 5-0 SU in their last five AFC games. The Jags are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games as the underdog.
NFL Parlay Pick #3: Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (-205)
Over their last 10 head-to-head meetings, the New England Patriots hold a 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS record against the Los Angeles Chargers. More importantly, the Patriots are 3-1 in the Playoffs and 12-3 SU at home against the Chargers.
Making matters worse for Los Angeles is their recent trends. LA is 2-5 ATS in their seven road games, 1-5 ATS in their last five January games, and 2-3 ATS after a loss this year. The Patriots are 7-3-1 ATS and 10-1 SU as the favorite this season.
The Chargers have an inferior offensive line that allows the 5th highest sack rate and 60 total sacks which is the 4th most. Additionally, they’re facing the no.6 run defense which should make things harder for this o-line.
Let’s not forget that LA lost both starting tackles this year, and struggle to protect when in obvious passing downs. The Chargers will play from behind in this game and that’s going to be a lot of trouble for the Bolts.
I like Drake Maye to play a solid game, but for the Patriots defense to be the difference in this matchup. New England will win the battle of the trenches and this game.
NFL Parlay Pick #4: Houston Texans (-170) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Houston Texans are favored to go into Pittsburgh and defeat the Steelers on Monday Night Football. And, I fully agree with this take.
The Houston defense is elite as they allow the second fewest points (17.4 ppg) and yards (279.1 ypg) per game. They also are 4th against the run (93.7 ypg) and 6th against the pass (185.4 ypg). Houston has the 8th best sack rate and the no.2 turnover margin with 1.7 takeaways per game, which includes 19 INTs this season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are basically a one-dimensional team as their run offense ranks 26th at 103.3 ypg. This means that the Texans will be able to key in on Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf. Without Metcalf, this Steelers’ offense was limited. Houston can take Metcalf out of the game and get after Rodgers, which should lead to a road win of seven points or more.
On the flip side, I like Houston’s passing game to have a big outing. Look for CJ Stroud and Nico Collins to lead this passing attack against the 3rd worst pass defense in the NFL. Pittsburgh allows 244.9 ypg and has been torched by opposing QBs in key matchups this season. Also, don’t let the Steelers’ no.13 run defense fool you. They’ve been gashed on the ground, as well.
Houston is 5-1 SU in their last six road games, 8-0 SU in their last eight AFC games, and are 7-2 SU as a favorite this season. The Steelers are 4-5 SU following a win and just 5-6 SU in non-division games this year.
The Texans will plow through Pittsburgh on their way to a matchup with the Patriots in the divisional round.n and 1-10 SU in their 11 NFC games.
NFL Parlay Total Payout
- Los Angeles Rams (-600)
- Buffalo Bills (-115)
- New England Patriots (-205)
- Houston Texans (-170)
While the Rams, Bills and Texans are all road favorites, these three teams have key advantages in their respective matchups.
The Rams are the better team and have the Playoff experience compared to Carolina. Plus, this LA offense is a juggernaut that scored 28 in their loss against Carolina in November.
The Bills have Josh Allen who will put on his Superman cape this weekend and fly down south for a winter matchup with the Jaguars. While Jacksonville is a talented team, Allen plays at a different level in the postseason and I expect the talented QB to pick apart this Jacksonville defense that doesn’t get many sacks and gives up plenty of passing yards.
The Texans have a Super Bowl-winning defense that will steamroll an inferior Pittsburgh team that has no running game. Additionally, this should be a strong outing for CJ Stroud against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
Finally, we have the Patriots at home where they’re a force. They will take on a struggling Chargers team with the worst offensive line in the Playoffs. LA won’t protect Herbert and New England should be able to cruise to a win with Drake May leading the way.
If you take all four legs of this NFL parlay card, then you would score a $415.41 payout. That’s a 4X on your investment.
Remember, to wager on this parlay card, you will need to check out the best sports betting sites and take advantage of any optimal lines, which means some line shopping could be greatly beneficial.
If you are loving these NFL parlay picks, then check out our College Football parlays of the week and double down on this week’s gridiron action.
