The Best NFL Parlays For Week 11

Week 10 of the 2024-25 NFL regular season is complete and it was pretty much status quo as many of the favorites won their matchups. However, there were a few small surprises last week with one of them impacting our parlay.

The Kansas City Chiefs got lucky by blocking a game-winning field goal attempt from the Denver Broncos. It was a small surprise that the Chiefs were even that close to losing.

Another small surprise was the Miami Dolphins beating the Los Angeles Rams on the road. Many pundits thought that the Rams were going to put together a long winning streak.

The biggest surprise of Week 10 was the New England Patriots going into Chicago and upsetting the Bears by the score of 19 to 3. They also upset us because Chicago’s loss dropped us to 3-1 with our parlay picks from last week.

This week, we’re picking against the Bears by taking the Green Bay Packers. We’re also going with the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams.

That’s right, we are creating a five-leg NFL parlay card for Week 11 as I really like these matchups. We’ve done this one other time and went 4-1 on that card.

Let’s dive deeper into our NFL parlay picks for Week 11 and see what our free NFL parlay card is paying out this week. 

NFL Picks and Parlays

Monitor the NFL odds throughout the week. As the odds change, the parlay payouts will change as well. 

Team	Odds	Payout Per Leg	Confidence Level
Detroit Lions	-800	NA	5/5
Houston Texans	-370	$42.91	5/5
Green Bay Packers	-330	$86.22	4.5/5
Los Angeles Rams	-425	$130.04	4/5
Minnesota Vikings	-270	$215.24	4/5

NFL Parlay Picks

Our weekly NFL parlay picks are based on order of confidence. Additionally, you can choose any combination of these NFL football picks for your own parlay card or use them all for the total payout listed above. 

NFL Parlay Pick 1: Jaguars (+550) vs. Lions (-800)

The Detroit Lions (8-1) have our highest confidence this week along with the Houston Texans. Yet, we like the Lions just a tad bit more. However, the odds are so high that it would be foolish to bet on them outright. So, keep the Lions to a parlay card instead.

Detroit returns home after a two-game road trip that saw them beat the Packers and the Texans. The Houston game was on Sunday Night Football and it was a thrilling comeback by the Lions.

Detroit has played four road games in their last five contests. It’s been three weeks since they last played at home where the Lions hold a 3-1 record.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-8 on the year and this season is over with. Not only have injuries derailed this team, but they’ve also played well below any preseason expectations.

The Jaguars have lost three games in a row and they are 0-5 on the road. It’s hard to imagine that this team is going to pick up their first road win of the season by taking down the biggest betting favorite of Week 11.  

These two teams have played against each other eight times and the Lions hold the edge with a 5-3 record. Detroit has won four games in a row over the Jaguars including their last meeting which came in 2022. The Lions won that matchup at home by the score of 40 to 14. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the score for this Week 11 game.

Why We Like The Detroit Lions

As long as the Lions can take the field and remain healthy, they’re going to win this game and probably do so by more than two touchdowns.

Detroit’s offense is a juggernaut and they should steamroll a terrible Jacksonville defense. The Lions average 31.6 ppg and the Jaguars give up 26.4 ppg.

The Lions average 147.3 rushing yards per game and the Jaguars give up nearly 130 yards on the ground per game. But they’re even worse in defending the pass as Jacksonville has the 30^th ranked pass defense that allows 261.2 yards per game. The Lions average 219.6 yards per game.

I fully expect this Detroit offense to put up yards and points against the Jaguars.

On the flip side, the Jaguars offense is bottom 10 in the league when it comes to points, yards, TDs, third down conversion percentage, rushing yards and passing yards. In other words, this is just a bad offense any way you slice it.

Detroit’s defense is solid especially against the run. I expect the Lions to shut down any rushing attack by the Jaguars as they force whomever is playing QB to throw the ball.

This game should be over with by the end of the third quarter, if not at halftime.  

NFL Parlay Pick 2: Texans (-370) vs. Cowboys (+390)

The Houston Texans (6-4) are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Lions last weekend. It was their third loss in the last four games and their second in a row.

They will now stay face their intra-state rival Dallas Cowboys (3-6) on Monday Night Football. Dallas’ season is over with. They’ve lost Dak Prescott to injury for the year and they have no running game even when Prescott was there. Anyone playing QB for Dallas is in for punishment each week.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike McCarthy gets fired sooner than later. It’s hard to imagine the Dallas head coach making it through the season. If he does, we know he will get the axe by Black Monday.

With that said, Dallas is 0-4 at home this season and I see this team picking up their fifth loss at home on Monday.

Dallas leads this series with a 4-2 record and have won three of the last four meetings. However, there’s very little chance that they can actually pull off the win in Week 11. In fact, I would be surprised if Dallas gets another win this year.

Why We Like The Houston Texans

There are numerous reasons why we like the Texans. For starters, they are the better team on paper and on the field.

Offensively, Houston should have success running all over the Dallas’ 31^st ranked rush defense that gives up 152 rushing yards per game. I expect Houston running back Joe Mixon to have a big game.

I also expect this Houston defense to absolutely crush the Dallas offense. The Cowboys have the second worst rush offense in the NFL at 83.7 yards per game. So, you can forget seeing Dallas move the ball on the ground.

Houston has the #4 ranked pass defense and will harass Cooper Rush all game long just like the Eagles did last week. Philly won that game 34 to 6. I wouldn’t be surprise if Houston won by a similar score.

This Week 11 matchup is nothing more than a glorified preseason game for the Texans who will smash Dallas to claim the Texas bragging rights.

NFL Parlay Pick 3: Packers (-260) vs. Bears (+210)

Last week, we were pretty high on Chicago Bears (4-5) bouncing back and beating the lowly New England Patriots at home. Instead, the team lost 19 to 3 and their Offensive Coordinator led a group coaches fired prior to this publication.

Rookie QB Caleb Williams has regressed to the point where this offense looks like one of the five worst units in the league.

On the other side of the field is the Green Bay Packers (6-3) who are coming off a Bye Week that gave some injured players time to rest and recover.

The Packers had their four game winning streak snapped in Week 9 against the Lions. They’re looking to get back into the win column and staying in the thick of the NFC North divisional race with the Lions and Vikings.

These two teams have the oldest rivalry in the history of the NFL. Sunday’s matchup will be the 209^th time that they’ve played against each other.

Currently, the Packers hold a 107-95-6 record in this series. Even more impressive is that Green Bay has won 10 games in a row over the Bears and are 25-3 in their last 28 head-to-head meetings. In other words, the Packers have owned this rivalry.

Why We Like The Green Bay Packers

In the preseason, I was not a believer in the Bears. In fact, I had them pegged on missing the Playoffs. Then I bought into the hype and thought at the very least they could win at home over the lowly Patriots. Well, I was wrong and I will not pick the Bears to win again in this regular season.

Chicago’s defense is going to have their hands full against this Packers offense that averages 25.6 ppg and 390 total yards per game which is third in the league. The Packers also have the #3 ranked rushing offense that averages 154.8 ypg. Chicago gives up 133 ypg on the ground.

This is where the Packers will win the game on the offensive side of the ball. Look for Green Bay to establish the run early with Josh Jacobs leading the ground attack. That will open up the play action passing attack which should carve up this Bears defense if they’re as futile as they were against the Patriots last week.

On the flip side, the Packers defense will focus on making Williams beat them from the pocket. After the way he looked last week, 120 yards on 16-of-30 passing, I expect Green Bay to win this game by at least a touchdown if not more.

I’m not a Bears fan. However, let me give Chicago fans a bit of advice, the season is over. It’s best you make plans for other activities in January and stop hoping for the Bears to make the Playoffs. It will not happen this year. Williams is not playing like a Jayden Daniels.

NFL Parlay Pick 4: Rams (-225) vs. Patriots (+185)

Speaking of the Patriots, they return home to host the Los Angeles Rams who have travel all the way across country on a short week.

The Rams fell short on MNF against the Dolphins despite having all of their offensive weapons back. Unfortunately, their red zone offense failed them as LA couldn’t score a touchdown when it mattered most. Instead, they settled for field goals and were never able to complete the comeback.

As we just mentioned, the Patriots beat the Bears in Chicago last week and made Williams look like a high school freshman quarterback. It really was an awful performance.

This week, the Rams and Patriots will play against each other for the 16^th time. Currently, New England holds the advantage with a 9-6 record. The Patriots are 6-1 in their last seven games against the Rams, which includes the offensive dud of a Super Bowl in 2019.

New England is 4-3 in home games versus the Rams and have won three in a row.

Why We Like The Los Angeles Rams

New England’s defense did a great job against the Chicago offense last week, but the Rams are a far better unit than Chicago. In fact, they’re a better team as well.

The Patriots’ biggest defensive weakness is their run defense that gives up 130.5 yards per game. I fully expect the Rams to take advantage of this with Kyren Williams. This can open up the play action pass for Matthew Stafford to hit Nacua or Kupp down the field.

Ultimately, I expect Stafford to outplay Maye and lead the Rams to a hard-fought win. This isn’t going to be pretty, but every team needs a few ugly wins along the way as they build character.

NFL Parlay Pick 5: Vikings (-270) vs. Titans (+220)

The Tennessee Titans (2-7) are in a heated race for the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. This team is on the verge of quitting on their coach as they just continue to find ways to lose games. It’s not just on one side of the ball either. Both the offense and defense for the Titans is playing some of the worst football in the NFL.

The Minnesota Vikings (7-2) are one game back of the Lions in the NFC North and need to keep winning to keep pace with Detroit and to stay ahead of the Packers. As you can see from my parlay picks, I’m big on all three of those teams winning this weekend and fading the Bears for the rest of the season.

Tennessee is just 1-3 at home and the Vikings are 3-1 on the road. Minnesota is 9-5 against the Titans in their 14 games played against each other, which includes when Tennessee was still the Houston Oilers.

If we’re just looking at when the franchise moved to Tennessee, then the Vikings are 5-2 against the Titans in the last seven meetings dating back to 1998. Minnesota has also won two of the last three games played at Tennessee.

Why We Like The Minnesota Vikings

Have you watched a Tennessee Titans game yet? They’re awful, inconsistent and have yet to play a clean game where they executed for all four quarters.

The Titans defense gives up the 4^th most points per game (26.7) and seemingly fold against good offenses which is what Minnesota has.

Throw out any of Tennessee’s productive defensive stats because they don’t matter against good teams. Just look at how bad they folded against the Lions and Bills. In fact, if you include the Chargers, Tennessee has been outscored 113 to 41 in those three games.

The Titans two wins on the year were against the Patriots in Overtime and versus the Dolphins when Miami had a 4^th string QB come in off the street to play in that game.

Minnesota has a solid offense that can run the ball and pass it. They’re well-balanced and I expect that balance to keep the Titans on their heels for most of the game.

One more reason why I like the Vikings is due to their aggressive, attacking defense that will cause a lot of issues for second year Titans QB Will Levis.

NFL Parlay Total Payout

If you decide to take all four legs of our parlay, a $100 wager will net you $215.24 in winnings and a total payout of $315.24.

As long as Detroit and Houston show up, they should easily win their games. They are far better than the Jaguars and the Cowboys. I see blowout wins for the Lions and Texans as they have our highest confidence ratings this weekend.

I also really like the Packers to beat their longtime rival the Bears. Chicago’s offense is atrocious and everyone should be silly for buying into their hype during the team’s four wins.

The Rams will have a tough contest as they travel across country but they are desperate for a win and they should be able to turn things around against the Patriots.

Lastly, the Vikings play against another awful team in the Titans. I expect the Minnesota defense to lead the way in this one as they force numerous three-and-outs, tally at least five sacks, and create a few turnovers from Will Levis.