The Best NFL Parlay Picks For The Divisional Round

Super Wild Card Weekend was filled with excitement and on-field drama that left NFL bettors and fans chomping at the bit for the Divisional Round matchups that begin on Saturday, January 18.

Since there’s only four games in the NFL Divisional Round of the Playoffs, we decided to mix things up a bit. Instead of only picking moneylines, we’ve added a few spread and Total parlay picks as well.

The Houston Texans are a sizable underdog playing at Kansas City. Although I think the Chiefs will win the game outright, taking Houston and the +8.5 points seems like a great parlay pick considering they lost to KC by eight last month.

Continuing the spread theme, I also like the Washington Commanders getting +9.5 points at Detroit. Sure, the Lions will win the game, but I don’t see them beating the Commanders by 10 points even if that means Washington scores a garbage-time touchdown to cover the spread.

Sunday’s games are supposed to be closer according to the online sportsbooks. With that said, the Rams vs. Eagles should be a tough battle. However, taking Philly at home should be a winner.

Speaking of winners, all football fans are winners for getting the Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills in the Playoffs. It’s lame that one of these MVP caliber quarterbacks have to lose, but this game is going to be great. It’s also going to be extremely cold, which gives me the impression that this will be a lower scoring, defensive battle.

With that said, let’s dive deeper into our NFL parlay picks for the Divisional Round and see what our free NFL parlay card is paying out this week. 

NFL Picks and Parlays

Monitor the NFL odds throughout the week. As the odds change, the parlay payouts will change as well. 

Team	Odds	Payout Per Leg	Confidence Level
Washington Commanders +9.5	-110	NA	4/5
Houston Texans +8.5	-110	$264.46	4/5
Philadelphia Eagles	-275	$396.99	4/5
Ravens vs. Bills U 51.5	-110	$848.80	4/5

NFL Parlay Picks

Our weekly NFL parlay picks are based on order of confidence. Additionally, you can choose any combination of these NFL football picks for your own parlay card or use them all for the total payout listed above. 

NFL Parlay Pick 1: Commanders +9.5 vs. Lions

Ever since Washington ran into a three-game losing skid in November, they’ve turned things around to win six games in a row, which includes beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild Card Round.

The Commanders were able to drive down at the end of the game to kick the field goal as time expired. It was also further proof that Jayden Daniels is a Bonafide star in this league. He finished the Wild Card game with 268 passing yards and 36 rushing yards.

The Detroit Lions had a first round bye to open the NFC Playoffs. As the #1 seed, they took full advantage of the rest week. Perhaps, no team benefited more as they were able to get some key players back including RB David Montgomery. With the Lions back at full strength on the offensive side of the ball, this team is poised for greatness.

However, will that translate into beating the Commanders by double digits?

Why We Like The Washington Commanders To Cover?

For the season, Washington is just 4-4-1 ATS in road games. Yet, they’re 11-6-1 ATS on the year. Additionally, they went 8-5 ATS in NFC games this year. Washington has also covered the spread in three of their last four games. Surprisingly, the Lions are just 5-4 ATS in home games this year and only 3-2 ATS in their last five games.

Where Washington has a chance at success this game is throwing the ball. Detroit gives up the 4^th most passing yards per game at 244 ypg. The Commanders average 218.5 ypg through the air.

Last week versus the Bucs, Daniels threw for 268 yards. Tampa is very similar to Detroit in regards to the stats. They both have a Top 5 run defense, but bottom five pass defense.

For the Commanders to have a shot, they will need to keep pace with the Lions on the scoreboard. That requires Daniels to use his arm and legs. I expect the rookie QB to have another great game and lead Washington to covering the 9.5 points.

NFL Parlay Pick 2: Texans +8.5 vs. Chiefs

Like the Commanders, I think the Houston Texans are being overlooked with this large spread. And, there are many reasons why.

The Texans restored confidence in the biggest of critics, like myself and Rex Ryan. We both thought that the Chargers had a bye week in Houston during the Wild Card Round. Well, that wasn’t the case. Houston smashed the Chargers and all of the doubters.

With that said, beating the Chargers at home is not the same as beating the back-to-back Super Bowl champions in their home stadium after a bye week. Houston has a big mountain to climb versus a well-rested KC team looking for history with a three-peat.

Yet, with the way that the Texans played versus the Chargers, and the result of their game at KC in December, I do believe that Houston will be highly competitive in this Divisional Round matchup and cover the spread.

Why We Like The Houston Texans To Cover?

Houston has not been great in covering the spread this season, but they have covered in their last two games. Additionally, they’re 4-4-1 ATS on the road. More shocking is that the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. The finished 8-9 ATS in the regular season and 5-7 ATS in 12 AFC games this year.

The Chiefs did cover against the Texans last month, but the spread was five and they won by eight. Additionally, Houston was in a slump. It appears they broke out from their slump with an impressive win last weekend over the Chargers.

For Houston to cover this spread, they need that defense to step up just like last weekend. I don’t see this team picking off Mahomes four times like they did Justin Herbert. But if they can create pressure and harass Mahomes then that will go a long way.

Houston is third in the NFL for sack rate and 6^th against the pass. They’re also 11^th against the run. So, they have the talent to limit the Chiefs. However, they will need to overcome the Mahomes Magic as it’s a real force in the NFL.

I see CJ Stroud playing better this time around versus the Chiefs as well. In their game last month, he went 23-of-39 and threw two interceptions. This inefficient performance can’t happen again.

I think Houston continues their momentum from the Wild Card Round and keeps this game within a touchdown. Who knows, maybe they will have a real shot to win at the end of the game?

NFL Parlay Pick 3: Rams (+225) vs. Eagles (-275)

Like the Texans vs. Chiefs and the Ravens vs. Bills, the Rams and Eagles also played during the regular season. It’s a game that LA fans would love to forget as the Eagles crushed the Rams 37-20 in Week 12.

Sure, the Rams are a better team now than they were then. Yet, the Eagles are built to win in the Playoffs and have more talent from top to bottom on both sides of the ball.

I do think the Rams will be more competitive in this Divisional Round game than they were at home versus the Eagles a few months back. However, everything points towards Philly winning at home on Sunday.

Why We Like The Philadelphia Eagles?

The Rams are 6-3 SU on the road this year, but Philly has been stellar at home with an 8-1 record. They also just beat the Packers by 12 points at home last weekend. I bring this up because Philly’s offense played a bad game especially throwing the ball. If they can win by 12 and play bad on offense, that’s just further proof as to how good this team is.

The Rams looked incredible against the Vikings last week as they swarmed that Minnesota offense and played their best game of the year. However, this game won’t be indoors like that one. In fact, this Playoff game could see rain or snow and is going to be in the 20s.

The Eagles are built for this weather. The Rams are not. LA will lean on their Championship experience, but it won’t be enough to win this game.

I see LA making a concerted effort to slow down Saquon Barkley this weekend. He had a career high 255 yards against the Rams in Week 12. I also see Jalen Hurts and this Eagles passing game bouncing back this week.

Philly will pull away late in the game after Barkley and company wear down this offense. Look for AJ Brown to bounce back as well. He had 109 yards in their first matchup.

NFL Parlay Pick 4: Ravens vs. Bills Under 51.5 points

The heavyweight showdown of the weekend is the AFC Divisional Round matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.

This game features the MVP frontrunners in Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s Josh Allen. It also features two of the best offenses in the league and two teams that are built to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC Championship.

It should be well-known by now that the Ravens crushed the Bills in their Week 4 matchup by the score of 35-10. However, I caution all of you not to read too much into that outcome as Buffalo was missing their Top 4 defenders in that game.

With that said, the Ravens look like the best team in the league with the way they’ve played over the last six weeks. However, I also caution you about this as well, especially since they played some awful teams over that span.

Because this game is going to be so tightly contested, I like the Under to hit.

Why We Like The Under for Ravens vs. Bills?

It’s pretty crazy taking the Under when you have the #2 (Bills) and #3 (Ravens) scoring offenses in the league. These two squads combine for 61.2 ppg.

However, I think this game becomes more of a running and time of possession battle as both teams don’t want the opposing offenses to have the ball. Furthermore, the weather is going to be freezing with possible snow.

Buffalo has gone Under in 3 of their last 4 home games including two in a row. The Ravens have gone Under in two of their last three games.

For Buffalo to have a chance at winning this game, they need to limit what Baltimore does in running the ball. That means they will need to play a great defensive game. Additionally, it means chewing up the clock with long offensive drives. We can say the same thing about Baltimore.

I think we get an old fashion, ground and pound, defensive battle in this matchup. However, we will still come close to 50 total points. I’m looking at a 24-23 win by Buffalo.

NFL Parlay Total Payout

If you decide to take all four legs of our parlay, a $100 wager will net you $848.80 in winnings and a total payout of $948.80.

I think that oddsmakers have really overshot their lines with the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. They made both teams near double-digit favorites against high-quality opponents. I expect both the Commanders and Texans to keep their respective games within a touchdown.

Although I was super impressed with the Rams in their Wild Card win over the Vikings, and very disappointed in what I saw from Philly, I still expect the Eagles to win this game. It’s going to be a cold-weather battle that requires running and defense.

The Eagles have the 2^nd best rushing attack and a Top 5 defense. Additionally, Jalen Hurts can scramble to extend plays. The Rams don’t have any of this. Eagles will pull away and win this game handedly.

Lastly, the Bills vs. Ravens will also be a cold-weather game where we see both teams trying to win the time of possession battle with long offensive drives that feature more run plays than passing plays. Additionally, we’ll see both defenses make more plays to keep this game under the 51 total points.is season and Lamar is just 2-4 all-time versus Pittsburgh.