The Best NFL Player Props for Week 10

We’re gearing up for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season, and there’s no shortage of fun matchups and NFL player props to dive into. If you’re looking to add a bit of excitement to the viewing experience, player prop bets offer interesting value that might be easier to predict than the game lines themselves. Let’s dive into some of the top props for this week, focusing on passing, rushing, and receiving yards, as well as a receptions prop.

Below, we outline some of the most enticing NFL player props for Week 11. Whether you’re looking at unders, overs, or a mix of both, there’s a little something for every NFL bettor.

NFL Player Prop Odds

Player	Prop Bet	Game
Geno Smith	Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)	Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Anthony Richardson	Over 177.5 Passing Yards (-110)	Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Cooper Rush	Over 184.5 Passing Yards (-110)	Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
Jared Goff	Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)	Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Derrick Henry	Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)	Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Nick Chubb	Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)	Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints
Kenneth Walker	Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)	Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle	Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)	San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Courtland Sutton	Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)	Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
Justin Jefferson	Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)	Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans

NFL Player Props Today

The following NFL player prop bets are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Geno Smith – Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Geno Smith has been solid under center for the Seattle Seahawks, but he faces a daunting task against the San Francisco 49ers’ elite defense this week. The Niners have legitimate All-Pro talent at every level of the defense, and there’s a chance the Seabirds won’t be at full strength for this one. DK Metcalf, who missed Seattle’s last game a couple of weeks ago, is considered questionable to return to the lineup on Sunday because of a knee issue.

Metcalf played the last time these teams met, but he was held to just 48 yards on 3 catches by the Niners’ elite secondary. Geno, however, threw for 312 yards while completing 30 of his 52 passes, his 2nd-highest pass attempt total of the campaign. Seattle has been among the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL this season, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they wanted to get Kenneth Walker III going on the ground early in this one.

The run game was essentially a non-factor in the Seahawks’ 36-24 loss at home to San Francisco a few weeks ago. The 49ers seem to be hitting their stride, however, which is why they’re favored by nearly a touchdown at home in this week’s rematch. San Francisco is a solid 11th in EPA against the pass so far this season, so it’s a very difficult matchup for Smith and the Seahawks on the road here.

I like the value on Geno to finish below 252.5 passing yards here.

Anthony Richardson – Over 177.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

After a couple of weeks on the sidelines, Anthony Richardson will return to the starting lineup for the Indianapolis Colts this week when they take on the New York Jets. Richardson was benched a couple of weeks ago in favor of veteran Joe Flacco, but Flacco hardly impressed in his 2 starts. So, head coach Shane Steichen announced the decision to reinsert Richardson as the QB1 for this week’s clash in New Jersey.

The primary question about Richardson coming out of college was whether he could be accurate enough to start in the NFL. His athleticism and rushing prowess are his finest attributes as a player, but he’ll have to be somewhat consistent through the air in order to keep opposing defenses honest. So far this season, he simply hasn’t been able to get it done.

Richardson has completed a paltry 44.4 percent of his passes for 958 yards with 4 touchdowns to 7 interceptions across 6 games. That’s not going to cut it at the NFL level, but I also think a 44.4 percent completion rate is unsustainably low. Richardson converted on a still-bad-but-more-passable 59 percent of his throws in 4 appearances before suffering a season-ending injury as a rookie last year.

The defense was supposed to be one of the Jets’ strengths this season, but they haven’t lived up to expectations on either side of the football. Even with an extremely inaccurate quarterback, an over/under of 177.5 passing yards is remarkably low for any starting QB in this day and age of spread offenses and pass-happy football. Richardson does have some capable weapons at his disposal, too, with Josh Downs and Alec Pierce both offering big-play ability. Ditto for Michael Pittman Jr., who looks due to return after missing last week’s game with an injury.

I like the over here for Richardson.

Cooper Rush – Over 184.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans

Now we’re cooking. The Dallas Cowboys are headed for a lost season, as Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending hamstring injury a couple of weeks ago. While Cooper Rush acquitted himself well enough while filling in for Prescott several seasons ago, the context is different now. The Cowboys team Rush played with back then had talent all over the field. This year’s team? Not so much.

In last week’s disheartening 34-6 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Rush completed just 13 passes for 45 yards. That is – quite remarkably – not a typo. He averaged 2 yards per attempt.

Again, though, that kind of statistical showing is likely more of an outlier than what we should reasonably expect moving forward. While this team sucks, Rush does still have CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson to throw to. They’ll also be facing a Houston defense that has given up quite a few big plays in the passing game this season, though the Texans did look a little better in that regard in what was ultimately a losing effort to the Detroit Lions in Week 10.

I like the Texans to win this one fairly easily. If they jump out to a big lead, the Cowboys will have no choice but to take to the air and essentially abandon the run game. While there is some risk of Rush getting benched in favor of Trey Lance if things get extremely ugly, I still think the over on 184.5 passing yards is a reasonable wager.

Jared Goff – Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Speaking of the Texans, Jared Goff had one of the worst games of his career against them last week. Goff threw 5 interceptions on Sunday Night Football, yet the Lions still did enough to win the game at the last second thanks to a buzzer-beating Jake Bates field goal. This week, the Lions will return to the friendly confines of Ford Field to take on the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jags’ defense looked surprisingly solid last week against the Minnesota Vikings, but dealing with the Lions’ stacked offense is a completely different challenge. Detroit is a fairly run-heavy offense with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs leading the way, but you can bet the Lions will also want to try and restore Goff’s confidence after last week’s shaky showing.

This matchup couldn’t be better for such things. The Jaguars are dead last in the NFL in EPA against the pass. The Lions are favored by nearly 2 touchdowns for a reason, of course. The blowout risk is a bit of a concern, but I think Goff can put together an efficient performance to help them get there.

It’s not asking too much for him to throw for at least 222 yards against football’s worst pass defense at home.

Derrick Henry – Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

One of the more intriguing matchups of Sunday’s slate will pit the AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens against the Pittsburgh Steelers. There’s a lot on the line in this one with both teams hunting for a division title, though the Ravens are listed as slight favorites on the road.

Derrick Henry has been everything Baltimore could’ve possibly hoped he’d be after he came over as a free agent this past offseason. Clearly, the 30-year-old still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Henry has carried the ball 184 times for 1,120 yards and a league-leading 12 touchdowns through the Ravens’ first 10 games. That ridiculous average of 6.1 yards per carry is easily the highest of his career, and I don’t see much reason to believe he can’t sustain it for the rest of the season.

That said, this is an awfully tough spot. The Steelers have a top 10 defense by just about every metric, and they’re 5th in EPA vs. the run. Henry’s big-play ability means he’s capable of topping 87.5 rushing yards if he’s lucky enough to break just one of the carries he gets in this one, but I don’t think he’s likely to enjoy his most efficient outing on Sunday. In fact, Jonathan Taylor of the Colts is the only running back in football to have rushed for over 87.5 yards against Pittsburgh this season. Taylor finished with 88 yards when the teams met back in October.

The Ravens have also lightened Henry’s workload a bit in recent weeks in an attempt to save him for the playoffs. Henry has just 1 game in his last 4 with more than 16 rushing attempts. I like the under on 87.5 rushing yards for him in this matchup.

Nick Chubb – Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

Nick Chubb returned from a devastating knee injury a few weeks ago for the Cleveland Browns. His return was largely overshadowed by the Deshaun Watson drama that continues to linger over the franchise like a stormy cloud, but he’s slowly rounding his way back into form.

Chubb will play his 4th game of the season on Sunday when the Browns visit the New Orleans Saints. He’s only averaging 2.7 yards per carry to this point, but he was always going to take time to get back into game shape after such a brutal injury. The workload has been there, however. Chubb has at least 15 carries in each of the last 2 games, and we can attribute his inefficiency to relatively difficult matchups against the Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.

Still, Chubb doesn’t have to be hyper-efficient to get past 55.5 rushing yards on Sunday in NOLA. This matchup is a terrific one, as the Saints are just 31st in the league in EPA against the run so far in 2024. The Texans – weirdly enough – are the only team in the NFL that’s been worse against the run than the Saints have. In related news, Bijan Robinson rushed for a couple of touchdowns in New Orleans last Sunday.

Chubb hasn’t yet topped 55.5 rushing yards in a game this season, but he’ll get there in Week 11.

Kenneth Walker III – Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Though the 49ers have a formidable front, Kenneth Walker has been a reliable option for Seattle on the ground. With his explosive ability to break runs for significant gains, Walker has a good shot at exceeding 54.5 rushing yards, even in what may seem like a challenging matchup on paper.

While the 49ers have been terrific against the pass, they’ve been surprisingly weak in terms of defending the run. San Francisco is just 23rd in EPA vs. the run, so this hasn’t been an area of strength for the Niners all year. Walker is averaging 4 yards per carry this season after dealing with some injuries early in the campaign, but he’s back to full strength.

Walker was bottled up for just 32 yards on 14 carries the last time these teams met in October. As mentioned, though, it would make sense for Seattle to come into this one with a run-first game plan. San Francisco will presumably expect the pass-heavy Seahawks to take to the air, so coming at them on the ground via Walker and Zach Charbonnet early on is a logical counter.

Bet Walker to top 54.5 rushing yards against the 49ers.

George Kittle – Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Let’s stay in the same game. George Kittle has had something of a resurgent season as he’s been lucky enough to stay healthy. He’s on pace to top 1,000 receiving yards, while he’s already scored one more touchdown than he did all of last season.

Kittle found the end zone in last week’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he still only finished with 3 total receptions on a season-low 4 targets for 57 yards. While we’ve seen some explosive games from Kittle, those have all come without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. McCaffrey returned for his season debut last week, and I don’t think Kittle’s aforementioned season-worst target share was a blip on the radar.

While I do think the Niners can find success through the air in this matchup against Seattle, Brock Purdy ahs enough weapons at his disposal to where I don’t necessarily think any one player is too likely to go off. In addition to Kittle and McCaffrey, Purdy can throw to Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall. That’s quite a few mouths that need feeding. That makes the under on 54.5 receiving yards for Kittle a solid play.

Courtland Sutton – Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Matchup: Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons

Not much was expected of the Denver Broncos this season, but they’re surprisingly in position to challenge for a playoff berth in their second campaign under Sean Payton. Denver came painstakingly close to becoming the first team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs last week, and this week they’ll turn their attention to the visiting Atlanta Falcons.

Bo Nix has been up and down as a rookie, but he’s made strides in recent weeks. While Courtland Sutton’s production tailed off in the last 2 seasons with Russell Wilson under center, he’s bounced back this season with Nix calling the shots. Sutton already has 42 catches on 77 targets for 569 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he can keep up a similar pace, he’ll easily blow by last season’s total of 772 receiving yards.

While I’m still not a full believer in Nix’s ultimate potential, the Broncos’ offense is in a favorable matchup again this week against Atlanta. The Falcons are middle of the pack in most defensive metrics, including a middling 23rd in EPA against the pass. Sutton has established himself as Nix’s clear-cut No. 1 target, and I think he’s in for another big week against a pass defense that has struggled all year long.

Justin Jefferson – Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans

While the Minnesota Vikings have been a pleasant surprise this season, all-everything wideout Justin Jefferson isn’t having his best statistical campaign. The former LSU standout does lead the Vikings with 53 catches on 78 targets for 831 yards, but that’s a far cry from the eye-popping numbers he posted earlier in his career with Kirk Cousins under center for the Vikings.

Sam Darnold hasn’t been quite as consistent, especially over the past few weeks. The Vikings were held without a touchdown last week despite a strong on-paper matchup against the aforementioned porous Jacksonville defense. This week, Minnesota draws another advantageous foe when they play host to the scuffling Tennessee Titans. Tennessee is only 16th in EPA against the pass.

Now that they’re returning to the dome, I’d be surprised if the Vikings didn’t look to get Jettas heavily involved. Jefferson finished with just 5 catches for 48 yards last week, but that came on the heels of back-to-back 100-yard efforts. That game also broke a 6-game streak in which Jefferson had hauled in at least 6 passes from Darnold.

I think they’ll start a new streak here. Jefferson’s receptions prop of 5.5 is simply too low, especially given the context of what happened with this offense last week. Smash that over, baby!

The Best Week 11 NFL Player Prop Parlay

For Week 11, here’s a 3-leg player prop parlay that combines solid value with strong potential for a big payout:

• Justin Jefferson – Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)
• Jared Goff – Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)
• Nick Chubb – Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

With these odds, the combined parlay odds come out to approximately +596. For a $100 bet, a successful parlay would return around $696 total (your $100 stake plus $596 in profit).

Check out our weekly NFL parlays article for more options and insights on Week 11 parlays.