The Best NFL Player Props for the Conference Championships

We’re down to the final four teams in the NFL. And, all four of these franchises are hoping to hoist the Lombardi Trophy after winning the Super Bowl on February 8.

Currently, the Seattle Seahawks are the favorites to win their NFC Championship matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, and to win SB 60 according to NFL betting sites and pundits.

It’s here, in the NFC Title game, that we like a handful of player prop bets. In fact, it was hard to narrow down the selections from this matchup.

In the AFC Title game, the props were limited based on the matchup between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. It’s expected to be more of a defensive battle then an offensive explosion in Seattle.

With that said, let’s take a look at our NFL picks for the top player prop bets of the week and make sure to check out our Conference Championship predictions for each game this weekend.

NFL Player Prop Odds

As mentioned, we’re really high on the NFC Championship game due to the potential of each team putting up big statistical numbers on the offensive side of the ball. So, we’re rolling with many of the key players for each offense.

With the Rams, we love the trio of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to soar once again. We’ve rolled with these players over the first two rounds of the Playoffs. So, there’s no reason to stop now.

Yet, Seattle’s trio of offensive leaders are also very appealing, as well. Those players include Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker.

In the AFC Championship game, there are few player props that jump out at us. In fact, it was a stretch just to get these two.

So, without further delay, continue reading our best NFL Conference Championship player prop bets below. You can also compare our analysis with what the best handicappers are saying.

Best NFL Player Props

The following NFL player prop bets are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

RJ Harvey Under 41.5 rushing yards (-110)

Game: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Harvey split carries with JK Dobbins for half of the season, until the latter was injured and placed on IR. Despite taking over as the top running back in Denver, RJ Harvey has done very little with this opportunity. In fact, he’s only hit 75 rushing yards in one of those games.

In the Divisional Round game against Buffalo, who had one of the worst run defenses in the league, Harvey finished with just 20 rushing yards.

This weekend, Harvey and this Denver ground game faces the Patriots who have the no.5 run defense that allows only 98.1 rushing yards per game.

Against the Chargers, in the Wild Card Round, New England allowed just 87 rushing yards. Last weekend versus the Texans, New England gave up just 48 rushing yards with 17 yards coming to their top RB Woody Marks. Justin Herbert led the Chargers with 57 rushing yards. Their top RB was Kimani Vidal who finished with 31 rushing yards.

New England did this against teams with highly-talented starting QBs. I fully expect them to stuff Harvey this weekend and the entire Denver offense.

Jarrett Stidham Under 198.5 passing yards (-110)

Game: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

The Patriots are in a very favorable matchup this weekend, as they face Denver’s backup QB Jarrett Stidham. Against the Chargers, New England held Justin Herbert to 159 passing yards. Versus the Texans, the Pats allowed only 212 passing yards to CJ Stroud.

If New England can do this to two talented QBs, then they should be able to hold a backup QB to 198 yards or less. For his career, Stidham has 1,422 passing yards in 20 appearances. However, if we just looked at his starts, then he would be averaging nearly 150 passing yards per game.

Stidham is not a starting QB and he will have far too much pressure on him this weekend. Additionally, he’s facing the no.7 pass defense that allows only 189.6 passing yards per game.

This is an easy under, and the AFC Title game is an easy win for the Patriots.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 receptions (-110)

Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Other than Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the best receiver in the NFL. The two men alternated between leading various wide receiver categories.

On the season, JSN finished with 119 receptions on 163 targets, 1,793 yards, and 10 TDs. He averaged 105.5 yards per game and 7.0 receptions per game.

The entire Seattle passing game didn’t have to do much against the 49ers in the Divisional Round, but JSN did catch at least seven passes in 12 of his 17 starts. In fact, he tallied seven or more catches in four of his last five regular season games. The 5^th contest in that span saw six catches.

Against the Rams, JSN had 17 catches on 25 targets. That’s an average of 8.5 receptions on 12.5 targets. You can expect similar numbers this weekend, as JSN is the team’s top passing weapon and he will perform well against the Rams for a third time this season.

Kenneth Walker III Over 85.5 rushing yards (-110)

Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

In 17 games, Kenneth Walker III averaged only 60.4 rushing yards per game. However, he did post a 4.6 yard per carry average, which is very respectable. Furthermore, Walker averaged 83.5 rushing ypg against the Rams this season. In their second meeting, Walker hit the 100-yard mark.

This line might seem high at first, but don’t let it scare you away. Walker tallied 116 rushing yards in a blowout win against the 49ers last weekend. He was the catalyst to this offense. Furthermore, his fellow RB Zach Charbonnet, who took nearly half of the touches, is out this weekend due to a torn ACL.

So, that means more carries for Walker and more touches overall. I expect the team’s top RB to get at least 90 rushing yards against the Rams who allowed 83 rushing yards to Carolina and 160 rushing yards to the Bears last weekend.  

Sam Darnold Over 234.5 passing yards (-110)

Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

On the season, Sam Darnold has averaged 238.1 passing ypg. In his two matchups against the Los Angeles Rams this season, Darnold has averaged 274.5 passing yards per game. While Darnold didn’t need to do much in Seattle’s 41-6 Divisional Roud destruction of the 49ers, I do expect that to change this weekend.

Seattle averages 221.3 passing ypg and the Rams allow 220.6 passing ypg. LA allowed Chicago’s Caleb Williams to throw for 257 yards in the snow and for Carolina’s Bryce Young to pass for 264 yards in the Wild Card Round. So, I fully expect Darnold to get at least 250 passing yards in this contest.

In fact, this is easily one of my favorite player prop bets for the Championship Round weekend.

Davante Adams Over 3.5 receptions (-110)

Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Davante Adams finished the regular season averaging 4.3 receptions per game and 56.4 ypg in his 14 regular season starts. He was on a heater down the stretch of the season with six out of seven starts producing four or more receptions.

In fact, the talented WR only saw six or less targets in one of his 14 starts. Even more impressive, Adams has seen eight or more targets in 11 of his 14 regular season contests.

In the Wild Card Round, Adams saw a whopping 13 targets. Unfortunately, he only caught five of them. Yet, that put him Over his prop bet. Against the Bears, in the Divisional Round, Adams only saw six targets and caught two of them.

It should be noted that game was played in the snow. So, I am treating that as an outlier and I fully expect Adams to get back to his averages with at least eight targets and four catches. Take the Over!

Puka Nacua Over 7.5 receptions (-110)

Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Puka Nacua finished as arguably the best receiver this regular season with 129 receptions on 166 targets for 1,715 yards and 10 TDs. Over 16 regular season starts, LA’s no.1 receiver averaged 8.06 receptions on 10.3 targets for 107.1 yards and 0.62 TDs per game.

Nacua caught at least seven passes in 12 of his 16 regular season games. And, in 50% of his starts this regular season, he caught at least eight receptions.

In the Wild Card Round, Nacua had 18 targets for 10 receptions. He easily eclipsed the Over for his player props. Unfortunately, like Adams, Nacua had a down day in Chicago’s snow with just 5 catches on 10 targets. Yet, he’s still putting up at least eight receptions in four of his last six games.

Against the Seahawks this year, Nacua averaged 9.5 receptions on 12 targets. In their second game, on December 18, Nacua had 12 catches on 16 targets for 225 yards and two touchdowns.

I love the Over for this prop bet.

Matthew Stafford Over 254.5 passing yards (-110)

Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

For Nacua and Adams to have strong showings, they need Matthew Stafford to have a big game. While his numbers were down slightly due to the snow in Chicago, he still finished with 258 yards and no interceptions. It was a step back from his 304 passing yards against the Carolina Panthers in the Wild Card Round.

For the regular season, Stafford averaged 276.9 passing yards per game. The MVP front-runner has gone over 254.5 passing yards in 11 of his 17 regular season starts, and in both Playoff contests.

Against the Seahawks, Stafford threw for 130 yards in their first meeting and 457 yards in their second contest. That first one is misleading because the Rams defense forced four interceptions and gave LA great field position. His average is 293.5 yards per game versus Seattle.

Stafford threw the ball 49 times in that second game versus the Seahawks. He’s also attempted 42 passes in each of his Playoff games. I expect another 40+ attempts against Seattle this weekend and for Stafford to easily eclipse 254.5 passing yards.

Best NFL Player Prop Picks For The Conference Championships

• Sam Darnold Over 234.5 passing yards (-110)
• Matthew Stafford Over 254.5 passing yards (-110)
• RJ Harvey Under 41.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Rams vs. Seahawks game should be a fun one to watch and bet on. We love both QBs to go over their passing totals this weekend. Darnold has averaged 274.5 passing ypg versus the Rams this season while Stafford put up 283.5 ypg in those two contests.

Furthermore, Stafford has gone over 254.5 passing yards in both Playoff games, along with 11 of his 17 regular season contests.

RJ Harvey mustered up only 20 rushing yards against the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. And, the Bills had one of the league’s worst run defenses. Now, Harvey faces a Top 5 run defense who will force Denver to try and beat them with a backup QB. I don’t expect Harvey to even sniff 40 rushing yards this weekend.

Speaking of these props, if you can find better NFL odds for any of these NFL player prop bets, I suggest you do so. Happy line shopping and good luck this weekend!

Feel free to combine some of these Conference Championship Round player prop bets into a parlay. And, if this is your preferred method of betting, then check out our weekly NFL parlay picks.