The Best NFL Player Props for Divisional Round

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is finally here, and the weekend’s matchups are loaded with star power and high stakes. This is the time of year when players rise to the occasion, and we often see standout performances that define careers. It also creates a great opportunity for you, loyal reader, to take advantage of player prop bets.

As I’ve said before, there’s typically more edge to be found in betting on NFL player props than you’ll find with traditional game lines. While NFL betting sites still do their best to price player props correctly, football is an inherently unpredictable game. That’s why we watch, right?

With 4 terrific matchups on the schedule, there’s no shortage of action to analyze. Let’s break down some of the most enticing player props for the quarterfinal round.

NFL Player Prop Odds

NFL Player Props Today

Here’s a breakdown of each prop, analyzing matchups, trends, and key factors to help you make informed bets. We’re using odds from the top online sportsbooks.

Jared Goff – Under 272.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders

Jared Goff has been a consistent performer for the Detroit Lions this season, but this is a tough spot for him. The Washington Commanders were the most porous pass defense in football last season, but they’ve improved considerably in that regard this year. The midseason addition of Marshon Lattimore via trade further solidified Washington’s secondary as a force with which to be reckoned.

The Lions are heavy 9-point favorites at home over the Commanders in this one, but I mentioned here that I like Washington’s chances to cover that large number. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense is very difficult to stop, and I think the Lions’ banged-up defense is going to have a hard time getting off the field. If they succeed in that regard, they may be able to keep Detroit’s offense relatively in check.

We also know Detroit is a run-first offense. Jahmyr Gibbs is borderline unstoppable, and the Lions will get David Montgomery back from a knee injury for this game. If the Lions can run the ball proficiently, they may not need Goff to shoulder a big load in the passing game.

Goff did put up a series of impressive passing lines during the regular season, but the game typically slows down once you get into the playoffs. I think there’s more money to be made betting against Goff putting up a monster passing yardage total on Saturday night.

Lamar Jackson – Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

Lamar Jackson has silenced critics this season with his improved efficiency as a passer. The Baltimore Ravens‘ offense can really do no wrong these days, and they’ll need to be on their game in order to keep up with the Buffalo Bills‘ similarly potent offense. This Sunday night clash has the highest over/under of the 4-game weekend slate, and rightfully so. Even in frigid conditions, we could have a shootout on our hands in this one.

Jackson didn’t have to put up big passing numbers for the Ravens to get past the Pittsburgh Steelers in last week’s Super Wild Card round. Jackson still threw a couple of touchdown passes but finished with only 175 yards through the air in a game Baltimore controlled from start to finish.

The Ravens are another run-first team, and you can safely assume they’ll try their darnedest to establish the run early in this one. They ran all over the Bills in their meeting way back in September, but that was before the Buffalo defense got healthier and hit their stride. The Bills will presumably sell out to try and slow down Jackson and Derrick Henry in the run game, which could open up opportunities for Lamar to do damage through the air.

Even without the dynamic Zay Flowers, the matchup is advantageous. Pro Football Focus rated the Bills as the NFL’s 24th-ranked pass defense this season. If Buffalo is expecting the Ravens to pound it on the ground, Baltimore could always throw a curveball and take to the air early and often.

Bet the over on Jackson’s modest 221.5-yard passing prop.

Derrick Henry – Under 99.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

Betting Derrick Henry unders has not been a profitable endeavor this season, I’m afraid. The 31-year-old clearly still has a lot of gas left in his oversized tank, and he proceeded to make 31 other teams look foolish for not picking him up in free agency last offseason.

The Bills know this well. Back in September, all Henry did in this matchup was rush for 199 yards along with a pair of touchdowns in Baltimore’s 35-10 statement victory. The veteran hasn’t slowed down since then, either. Last week against Pittsburgh, Henry racked up 186 yards with a couple more scores on the ground.

That said, an over/under of 99.5 rushing yards is wildly high for any player at the NFL level. Rushing yards props for elite RBs are typically in the 70-80 range, yet with this one you need Henry to top 100 yards if you want to cash that over wager. While it feels like Henry breezes past that total on a weekly basis, he was actually held to less than 100 yards 8 times this season.

Despite his success against the Bills the last time, Buffalo finished the season among the league’s most stout run-stopping units. Buffalo finished as the 5th-best run defense in football, per PFF. As mentioned, they were missing a few key players – including roaming linebacker Matt Milano – when Henry destroyed them early in the campaign.

This bet isn’t for the faint of heart, but scared money don’t make money, they say. I’ll take the under on Henry’s hefty 99.5-yard rushing prop on Sunday evening.

Jahmyr Gibbs – Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Matchup: Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders

Jahmyr Gibbs has emerged as a key weapon for the Lions, and this matchup against the Commanders sets up perfectly for him to shine. Even with Montgomery available to play, I’d be surprised if Gibbs didn’t finish the game with the lion’s share (heh) of the carries. Montgomery could see a more limited workload in light of his injury, while Gibbs proved with Monty on the shelf that he’s fully capable of thriving in a workhorse-type role.

The last time we saw the Lions – in Week 18 – Gibbs was almost single-handedly dashing the Minnesota Vikings’ division title hopes. The Alabama product carried the ball 23 times for 139 yards and scored 3 times. Gibbs topped 100 rushing yards in each of the season’s final 3 games, which coincided with Montgomery’s absence.

Montgomery’s return mucks things up a little, but Gibbs is so dynamic that he’s fully capable of posting another beefy line even if he’s not getting 90 percent of the carries. Washington’s defense has also improved in terms of stifling the run, but this is another game that should feature plenty of scoring. It doesn’t hurt that the game will take place at the indoor Ford Field, and we know indoor games are generally more favorable for offensive production because weather won’t be a factor.

I like the over on 80.5 rushing yards for Mr. Gibbs at -115 odds.

Khalil Shakir – Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

Khalil Shakir isn’t exactly a household name, but you can say that for most of the Bills’ pass-catchers. Shakir’s emergence last season made it easier for Buffalo to decide to move on from both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis last offseason. While he didn’t finish the season with eye-popping numbers – 76 catches for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns – he was still Buffalo’s leading receiver by a sizable margin. Keon Coleman – with 556 yards – finished a distant second.

Josh Allen typically spreads the wealth, but Shakir will be his first read more often than not. He attracted a team-high 100 targets during the regular season, and he caught all 6 of his team-leading targets in last week’s 31-7 demolition of the Denver Broncos.

The Ravens’ defense has improved since a shockingly dismal start, but they’re still exploitable through the air. They haven’t been nearly as stingy vs. the pass since last year’s defensive coordinator – Mike Macdonald – left town to take the head coaching gig in Seattle. I expect Allen and the Bills to enjoy some success in this spot, and we’re not asking the world of Shakir by taking the over on 4.5 receptions.

The Best Divisional Round NFL Player Prop Parlay

For a high-payout parlay, consider combining:

• Lamar Jackson Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-115)
• Jahmyr Gibbs Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
• Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

This NFL parlay capitalizes on favorable matchups and player usage, giving you a strong chance to cash in during the Divisional Round.