The Best NFL Player Prop Bets Week 3

Week 3 of the NFL season brings us some intriguing player props across several matchups. NFL player props give you the chance to put your money where your mouth is when it comes to the performance of your favorite players.

Below, we break down a few player props you should keep your eye on heading into Week 3. These may not be the most exciting NFL bets in the world, but being a profitable bettor is all about identifying value and taking advantage of it. If being a profitable bettor was easy, everybody would do it.

Here’s my NFL player prop betting card for Week 3.

NFL Player Prop Odds

Player	Prop Bet	Game
Tony Pollard	Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (+100)	Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
Caleb Williams	Over 19.5 Completions (-140)	Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jaylen Warren	Under 7.5 Carries (-140)	Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kirk Cousins	Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-120)	Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
Gus Edwards	Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-120)	Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Alvin Kamara	Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-105)	Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints
De’Von Achane	Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)	Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks
Trevor Lawrence	Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-125)	Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Daniel Jones	Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)	Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants
Miles Sanders	Over 6.5 Carries (+105)	Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

NFL Player Props Today

The following NFL player prop bets are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Tony Pollard – Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans signed Tony Pollard away from the Dallas Cowboys following the offseason departure of franchise icon Derrick Henry. Tennessee’s plan coming into the season was to essentially split the work between Pollard and second-year back Tyjae Spears. Through 2 games, however, Pollard appears to be alone atop the depth chart. He’s been on the field for 64 percent of the Titans’ offensive snaps, while Spears has logged just 39 percent.

The matchup against the Green Bay Packers isn’t a bad one. We saw Saquon Barkley obliterate Green Bay’s defensive front in Week 1, though the Pack did bounce back and do a fine job of limiting Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson last week. Tennessee has gotten Pollard involved fairly heavily, as well. He logged 16 carries in the loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 1 and followed that up with 17 attempts in the last game against the New York Jets.

Efficiency is key. Pollard averaged 5.1 yards per carry against Chicago, though that was buoyed by a 26-yard touchdown run early in the game. He struggled in a more difficult matchup last week, garnering just 3.6 yards per attempt en route to 62 rushing yards for the game.

Pollard’s under on 59.5 rushing yards (+100) looks like a valuable bet, especially considering how often the Titans tend to pass when they fall behind. Tennessee’s offense has struggled to remain balanced in games where they’re trailing, which could force the Titans to abandon the run in favor of their passing attack. Pollard might be more involved in the receiving game, given his versatility, but staying under 60 yards on the ground is likely if the Packers can build an early lead. Green Bay is favored in this game, for what it’s worth.

Adding to this, the Titans’ offensive line hasn’t been particularly dominant in run blocking this season, and Pollard hasn’t consistently faced stacked boxes like he did during his Cowboys days. Expect the Packers to key in on him, limiting his opportunities for long gains, making the under a strong play. Given Green Bay’s control of the line of scrimmage in previous weeks, Pollard might find it hard to surpass this total unless he breaks off a rare big run. We’re getting strong value here on the under at even-money odds.

Caleb Williams – Over 19.5 Completions (-140)

Matchup: Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts

Caleb Williams made it look easy during his college days, but the transition to the speed of the NFL game hasn’t been easy. The former Heisman Trophy winner has completed about 56 percent of his throws for 267 yards and no touchdowns through a couple of games against the Titans and Houston Texans. This week, Williams and the Chicago Bears will head to Indianapolis for their third consecutive game against an AFC South foe to begin 2024.

Williams completed just 14 of his 29 passes in Week 1 against Tennessee, but bounced back a bit to complete better than 62 percent of his attempts (23-for-37) against Houston. The Bears fell into early deficits in both games, which essentially forced the Bears to abandon the run and lean on Williams to get them back into it. Chicago has passed on better than 63 percent of their snaps to this point, which is the eighth-highest mark in football.

The Bears likely don’t want to be a pass-first offense with a rookie QB, but they haven’t had much of a choice early on. The Bears will likely lean on Williams’ arm again as they aim to exploit the Colts’ secondary, which has been susceptible to intermediate and deep routes.

Williams’ chemistry with his receivers has been building week by week, and his ability to extend plays under pressure adds to his potential to rack up completions. Look for the Bears to employ a pass-heavy approach, especially if they fall behind early, which only increases the likelihood of Williams surpassing the 19.5 completions mark. I like his chances of getting there especially if Keenan Allen returns after missing Week 2 with a heel injury. Allen attracted 11 targets from Williams in Week 1 against the Titans.

Even though the odds on the over are slightly juiced at -140, the consistent volume Williams sees should make this prop a relatively safe bet for Week 3.

Jaylen Warren – Under 7.5 Carries (-140)

Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren has been an exciting, explosive change-of-pace back for the Pittsburgh Steelers, complementing Najee Harris in the backfield. However, his usage has been fairly limited when it comes to rushing attempts, as the Steelers tend to lean on Harris for early-down work. In this Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, Warren’s carries are expected to remain capped under 7.5, especially given the way the Steelers have managed their running back rotation so far.

Warren played more in Week 2 than he did in Week 1. After logging just 31 percent of the snaps in the season opener, Warren’s snap share increased to 48 percent last week in Denver. The diminutive 5’8″ back has been efficient as a runner (5.1 yards per carry) early in his career, but he typically gets more work in the passing game. Through 2 games, the Oklahoma State product has just 11 total carries compared to 37 for Harris.

With the 6’1″, 240-pound Harris being the preferred option in the red zone and on early downs, it’s hard to see Warren eclipsing 7.5 carries unless Harris goes down with an injury or the game script drastically shifts. Pittsburgh is a slight 1.5-point home favorite in this one, and it would make sense for the Steelers to again lean heavily on Harris with Justin Fields under center.

Los Angeles also tends to give up more in the passing game than on the ground, meaning the Steelers may deploy more short throws and screens to Warren rather than using him heavily in the rushing attack. Combine that with Warren’s role primarily coming on third downs or in hurry-up situations, and it’s clear why the under on 7.5 carries is priced at -140. While Warren has the potential for explosive plays, the volume just isn’t likely to be there, making the under a smart bet for Week 3.

Kirk Cousins – Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-120)

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins has always been a reliable quarterback when it comes to racking up passing yards, and Week 3 presents another favorable opportunity for him to do so. Facing a Kansas City Chiefs team that has shown vulnerability in defending the pass, Cousins is a solid bet to surpass the 223.5 passing yard mark.

The Atlanta Falcons didn’t pay Cousins a boatload of money to serve as a game manager. While he struggled in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, he looked considerably better last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Atlanta’s new $100 million man threw for 241 yards while completing 69 percent of his throws in a comeback win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football. This came on the heels of a week 155-yard effort in Cousins’ team debut a couple of weeks ago.

As you’d expect, Cousins is still working to build a rapport with his new teammates. The Falcons quietly have quite a few weapons around him between Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Darnell Mooney. Mooney and London both found the end zone against Philly, while I’d expect Pitts to be more heavily involved moving forward.

Additionally, Cousins tends to perform well in games where he needs to keep pace with high-scoring offenses. With Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on the other side, it’s likely the Falcons will need to throw the ball consistently in order to stay competitive.

Cousins’ ability to efficiently find open receivers and move the ball downfield – combined with the expected game script – makes the over on 223.5 passing yards a solid choice. The odds at -120 reflect the likelihood that Cousins will comfortably hit this number, especially if the Chiefs fail to tighten up their coverage.

Gus Edwards – Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Jim Harbaugh decided to import his brother’s old crop of running backs after taking the Los Angeles Chargers‘ head coaching job. The Bolts nabbed J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards away from the Ravens this offseason, and the 2-0 Chargers will hit the road again this week to take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Dobbins has been the early breakout star, while Edwards has played a more complementary role through a couple of games.

Dobbins has carried the ball 27 times for 266 yards, which comes out to a healthy average of 9.9 yards per carry. Something tells me that isn’t sustainable. Edwards, meanwhile, has actually racked up a couple more carries than Dobbins (29), though he only has 85 rushing yards to show for it. Dobbins has also accounted for all 3 of LA’s rushing touchdowns to this point. This is much more of a time share than the results would indicate. Edwards actually played 48 percent of the Chargers’ snaps to 46 percent for Dobbins last week against the Panthers.

The Chargers’ offensive line has done a terrific job of run blocking, which is hugely important in Harbaugh’s run-first system. Given Edwards’ physicality and ability to pick up tough yardage between the tackles, he should see a fair share of early-down carries, especially if the Chargers are looking to establish a more balanced offensive attack against a Steelers defense that can be vulnerable to the run. Edwards doesn’t necessarily need a high volume of carries to surpass 31.5 yards, as he is known for turning short-yardage situations into chunk plays.

I just don’t think the betting markets are reacting appropriately to the reality of the Chargers’ backfield. While Dobbins has been the more explosive of the 2 backs in the season’s early stages, it’s a bit surprising to see his rushing yardage prop (50.5) so much higher than Edwards’. These guys are essentially splitting the work for the time being. Edwards has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his career, so his current average of 2.9 isn’t likely to remain that low moving forward.

Additionally, if the Chargers are able to get an early lead, they may lean on Edwards even more to control the clock and wear down the Steelers’ front seven. His ability to consistently gain yards after contact will make it likely for him to hit this yardage mark, especially considering the Steelers’ focus on defending the pass, which may open up more rushing lanes for Edwards. At -120, this is a reasonable prop to back, given the matchup and Edwards’ potential involvement in the game plan.

Alvin Kamara – Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints

It’s early, but Alvin Kamara sure looks like he’s found the fountain of youth. On the heels of one of the worst seasons of his career, Kamara suddenly looks like one of the game’s elite running backs once again. The 29-year-old has carried the ball 35 times for 198 yards and 4 touchdowns through 2 games against the Panthers and Cowboys to begin 2024. In Week 3, the New Orleans Saints will play host to a Philadelphia Eagles defense that hasn’t quite lived up to expectations over the past couple of seasons.

The Eagles have allowed 157.5 rushing yards per game through 2 weeks. Despite New Orleans’ impressive 2-0 start, however, the Saints are listed as slight home underdogs in this one. The Eagles are favored by 2.5 points at the Superdome after a 1-1 start.

Kamara, known more for his versatility as a dual-threat back, could see more involvement in the passing game rather than on the ground, especially if Philly comes in and establishes an early lead. The Eagles are certainly well aware of Kamara’s hot start, so don’t be surprised if their entire defensive game plan is focused on trying to slow him down. With Derek Carr under center, the Saints may lean on quick passes, screens, and dump-offs to neutralize the Eagles’ pass rush, further reducing Kamara’s rushing opportunities.

Given the potential for a game script where the Saints may need to pass more if they fall behind, Kamara could find himself with limited carries, making the under on 65.5 rushing yards a good value. Even if Kamara breaks a few decent runs, Philadelphia’s defense is built to stop bigger plays, making it difficult for him to consistently find open space.

De’Von Achane – Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks

De’Von Achane has shown flashes of his dynamic playmaking ability for the Miami Dolphins, and Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks is a great opportunity for him to surpass 70.5 rushing yards. Seattle’s run defense has been one of the more vulnerable units in the NFL over the past couple of seasons.

Many expected Miami to give Achane a bigger role following a promising rookie season. After logging 52 percent of the Dolphins’ snaps in Week 1, Achane played 62 percent of the plays last week with Raheem Mostert sidelined by injury. Mostert looks doubtful to play again this week, and we could see Miami get Achane even more involved with Tua Tagovailoa now sidelined by a concussion.

Something tells me Miami won’t want to lean on Skylar Thompson to try and win the game on his own. Achane averaged an absurd 7.8 yards per carry in limited work as a rookie. While he’s declined to just 3.8 yards per attempt through 2 games this year, he still looks as explosive as ever when he gets into space. Achane has caught all 14 of his targets this season for 145 yards receiving.

We’re here to talk about rushing yards, though, and Achane racked up 22 carries for 96 yards as the primary back against Buffalo in Week 2. That was 12 more attempts than he generated in Week 1 with Mostert in the lineup. Getting Achane and Tyreek Hill heavily involved should be Miami’s top offensive priority this week, and Achane’s effectiveness will go a long way toward determining whether they can pull the upset on the road.

Achane’s speed and elusiveness make him a home run threat every time he touches the ball, and against a defense like Seattle’s, one or two big runs could help him eclipse this rushing total. The Seahawks have struggled with missed tackles and gap discipline, which could spell trouble against a back like Achane, who excels in making defenders miss at the second level. Additionally, if the Dolphins build an early lead, they could lean more on their running game to control the clock, further boosting Achane’s chances of surpassing this total.

Given Achane’s ability to turn small gains into explosive plays and the Seahawks’ issues in stopping the run, this prop has solid potential. As long as he sees a reasonable volume of carries (around 15-20), Achane should comfortably hit the over on 70.5 rushing yards in what looks like a favorable matchup for Miami’s ground game.

Trevor Lawrence – Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

The Jacksonville Jaguars will hit the road and head to Western New York for a date with the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Jacksonville is off to a ragged 0-2 start after losses to the Dolphins and Browns to begin the ’24 campaign. One key for the Jags moving forward will be to get Trevor Lawrence going after a slow start to the season.

Through 2 games, the former No. 1 overall pick is just 26-for-51 (51 percent) for 382 yards and a touchdown. He threw just 30 passes last week against Cleveland after attempting just 21 vs. Miami. The Jaguars have run a very balanced offense to this point, and they’re listed as 5-point underdogs in Buffalo this weekend.

The Jaguars’ offensive strategy often includes short passes and quick-hitting plays that don’t require a high volume of pass attempts to be effective. Lawrence hasn’t been efficient with his throws so far this season, though, and we could see them try to establish the ground game and control the clock with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby early. Keeping the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands should be Jacksonville’s top priority in this one. Buffalo has yielded over 131 rushing yards per game through 2 weeks, so it would make sense for the Jags to try and exploit that potential weakness.

If the Jaguars manage to control the tempo of the game and build a lead, they obviously won’t need Lawrence to try to win the game by himself. With the odds set at -125, the under on 34.5 pass attempts presents good value, especially if Jacksonville can lean on their run game and minimize Lawrence’s workload through the air.

Daniel Jones – Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)

Matchup: Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants

Daniel Jones is known for his athleticism and ability to make plays with his legs, but his propensity for turnovers has been a consistent issue throughout his career. In Week 3, Jones and the New York Giants face a tough Cleveland Browns defense that features one of the league’s most fearsome pass rushes, led by Myles Garrett. The pressure Garrett and the Browns’ defensive line can generate is likely to force Jones into making hurried throws, increasing the likelihood of an interception.

Frankly, I’m a little surprised to see the over on 0.5 interceptions priced at even-money odds. Danny Dimes threw a couple of picks in the Giants’ Week 1 loss to Minnesota. He didn’t turn the ball over last week, but New York faced a much friendlier matchup in that one against a pathetic Commanders pass defense.

The Browns’ secondary is also solid, with playmakers like Denzel Ward and Grant Delpit who have the ball-hawking skills to capitalize on any mistakes. Jones has a tendency to force passes under pressure. While the Browns have yet to intercept a pass early this season, they led the NFL in that department with 23 regular-season picks in 2023. Cleveland’s ability to stop the run could also force the Giants into more passing situations, which will only heighten the pressure on Jones.

The game script also doesn’t favor the Giants with New York listed as a 6.5-point underdog on the road. While we saw him develop some chemistry with Malik Nabers last week, this Browns defense is much more equipped to keep him quiet.

At +100 odds, there’s good value in betting on Jones to throw an interception, especially given the matchup. Cleveland’s defense has consistently shown it can create chaos for opposing quarterbacks, and if Jones finds himself behind in the game and forced to pass more, the chances of him making a costly mistake only increase.

Miles Sanders – Over 6.5 Carries (+105)

Matchup: Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Carolina Panthers paid Miles Sanders handsomely to come over from the Eagles prior to last season. However, his first season in town was a good example of why teams are typically reluctant to pay big money to running backs these days. The 27-year-old averaged just 3.3 yards per carry and totaled 432 rushing yards across 16 games last season. He eventually lost the starting job to Chuba Hubbard.

His production through 2 games this year hasn’t been much better. Playing as Hubbard’s primary backup, Sanders has just 45 rushing yards on 12 attempts in losses to the Saints and Chargers. However, he did see the field a bit more last week. After playing 37 percent of the team’s snaps against New Orleans, Sanders was on the field for 42 percent of the plays a week ago.

At long last, the Panthers have finally put an end to the painful Bryce Young experiment. Andy Dalton will be under center when they head to Sin City for a date with the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3. This is a Vegas defense yielding an average of 163.5 rushing yards per game, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL through 2 games. The Raiders weren’t exactly stingy against the run last season, so this likely isn’t a blip on the radar.

Even with the QB change, I’d expect the Panthers to try and get the ground game going in this one. Sanders hasn’t been productive at all since his arrival in Carolina, but we did see him eclipse 6.5 carries in the last game. Doing so again could be a sweat, but we’re getting plus-money odds (+105) on the over.

This prop offers solid value. Barring any injury or unexpected change in game plan, he should surpass 6.5 carries for a second straight week, making this a smart play for Week 3.

The Best NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 3

After breaking down all of the player props for Week 3, three bets stand out as the best options to combine into a parlay for a high-value, calculated wager:

1. Trevor Lawrence: Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
2. De’Von Achane: Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
3. Daniel Jones: Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)

These three bets offer a mix of high-probability outcomes and decent odds to maximize value in a parlay:

• Trevor Lawrence under 34.5 pass attempts is a smart pick given Jacksonville’s balanced offense. He’s failed to come close to topping this mark in either of the season’s first 2 games.
• De’Von Achane over 70.5 rushing yards is an excellent value considering his explosive playmaking ability and the Seahawks’ weak run defense, which could allow for big gains.
• Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions is a great value bet as a result of the pressure the Browns’ defense is likely to put on Jones, increasing the chances of a mistake.

The Best Week 3 Player Props Parlay

• Trevor Lawrence under 34.5 pass attempts (-125)
• De’Von Achane over 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions (+100)

Using standard odds calculations, the combined parlay odds would be approximately +526. If you place a $100 wager on this 3-leg parlay at +526 odds, a successful bet would yield a $526 profit plus your original $100 stake, for a total payout of $626. For more parlay cards, check out our best NFL Week 3 parlay.