California Governor Election Odds and Predictions

While state elections don’t generally garner a ton of national attention, California is an exception. The nation’s most populous state will vote for a new governor in 2026. Incumbent Gavin Newsom will reach the end of his second and final term that year, which means someone new will assume the office following that fall’s election.

Californians won’t cast their ballots for nearly 2 years, but several high-profile candidates and political newcomers already generating buzz ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial election. California’s unique political landscape, with its deep blue lean and massive economy, always draws national attention. The stakes are high, and the field is packed with experienced leaders vying for the state’s top office.

For a deeper dive into the broader political scene, including national races, check out our 2028 Presidential Election Odds and Predictions blog.

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When Is the California Governor Election?

The next California Governor Election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. As one of the most populous and influential states in the U.S., California’s gubernatorial race sets the tone for state and national policies. Before the general election, candidates will first compete in the June 2026 primary, where the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the November runoff.

How Is the California Governor Elected?

California’s gubernatorial election follows a nonpartisan blanket primary system.

This means all candidates – regardless of party – compete in a single primary election. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, creating scenarios where two Democrats, two Republicans, or one from each party could face off in November.

We saw this play out in the 2024 election for U.S. Senate. Several Democrats populated the field, but Democrat Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey ultimately advanced to the final November ballot. However, 2 Democrats or 2 Republicans could go head-to-head had the votes broken that way.

This system reflects California’s political diversity and ensures that the candidates with the broadest appeal make it to the final vote regardless of political affiliation.

California Governor Odds

Check out the latest California Governor odds, courtesy of the best online betting sites:

As of this writing, this election appears to be a three person race. Katie Porter, Kamala Harris and Eleni Kounalakis are well ahead the rest of the pack. However, there’s still plenty of time for another candidate to move up on the odds boards and within the political ranks.

Top California Governor Candidates

The following political candidates are considered the favorites to win the California Governor Election:

Katie Porter

Katie Porter is the early frontrunner in the race with odds set at +200. Known for her tenacity and sharp questioning during congressional hearings, Porter has made a name for herself as a progressive champion.

Porter previously represented Orange County in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2019 until earlier this year. She gave up her Congressional seat in order to run for Senate, where she was ultimately defeated by Schiff and Garvey in last year’s primary. Porter served as the deputy chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Porter drew headlines last summer after refusing to concede her primary defeat gracefully. She went as far as to accuse Schiff and his campaign of “rigging” the race against her and some of the other leading Democratic candidates. The criticism stemmed from Schiff’s decision to try to boost Garvey’s viability in the primary. If Garvey – a Republican – were to make it to the November ballot, Schiff determined he would be easier to beat in deep-blue California than a fellow Democrat. In the end, his gamble proved successful, much to Porter’s chagrin.

Kamala Harris

Future former Vice President Kamala Harris is another heavy hitter in the race, coming in with +300 odds. As a former California Attorney General and U.S. Senator, Harris brings an extensive resume and national name recognition to the table. While her time as VP to Joe Biden was met with mixed reviews, her deep ties to California politics and ability to mobilize voters give her a significant advantage.

Harris’s campaign would likely focus on her leadership experience and ability to address statewide issues such as housing, climate change, and public safety. Frankly, her campaign for the California governor’s seat likely wouldn’t look all that different from the unsuccessful presidential campaign she ran against Donald Trump just last year.

That said, Harris would stand a far better chance of winning a state election in California, as she has done in the past. Harris’ political future is very much up in the air on the heels of her 2024 presidential election loss, so running for governor could certainly be the next step. In spite of that infamous defeat, I think Harris would be a much better bet at +300 odds than Porter would be at +200.

Eleni Kounalakis

Eleni Kounalakis, the current Lieutenant Governor, is also a strong contender with +350 odds. She has built her reputation as a steady, reliable leader with a focus on education and economic development. Her experience in California’s executive branch gives her an insider’s edge, appealing to voters who favor continuity and stability.

While she lacks the national profile of Porter and Harris, Kounalakis’s deep connections within the state could work to her advantage in a crowded field.

Ascending from the Lieutenant Governor post into the governor’s mansion is hardly unprecedented, especially in California. Governor Newsom served as the LG to former Gov. Jerry Brown. Kounalakis has made no secret of her desire to ultimately run for the highest office in the state, but I do think she’d be an underdog to some of the more prominent candidates if she did get into the race.

Best California Governor Betting Value

Like it or not, I have a hard time seeing how Kamala Harris (+300) wouldn’t be the favorite if she were to throw her hat into the ring. She would instantly be the most recognizable candidate, and name recognition goes a long way in what is, essentially, a popularity contest. Harris will also have no shortage of detractors, but Democrats have held the office ever since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s term ended back in 2011.

Top Longshot to Win California Governor’s Race

Rick Caruso (+2800) is the best longshot who could make waves in the race race. The billionaire developer gained significant recognition during his 2022 Los Angeles mayoral bid and has the financial resources to fund a high-profile campaign.

While his conservative-leaning policies may limit his appeal in California’s heavily Democratic electorate, his ability to connect with moderate and independent voters gives him a path to a surprising upset.

It’s also worth wondering if the state’s slow shift to the right may continue in the coming years. Republicans have fared increasingly well in House of Representatives races, even in traditionally deep-blue districts. Trump is another example. After receiving just 31 percent of the vote in California in his first run at the White House in 2016, Trump got 34 percent of the state’s vote in his losing effort in 2020. In 2024, Trump improved his share even more, receiving 38 percent of the vote.

Cost of living, homelessness, and crime are three factors that could drive voters to the polls. Republicans tend to poll better with voters on these issues. If Caruso joins the race, he makes for a very interesting longer-shot wager at his current +2800 odds.

California Governor Race Predictions

California’s gubernatorial race will likely come down to a contest between Katie Porter and Kamala Harris. Porter may have more grassroots appeal, but you can be sure the big political machine will line up behind Kamala if she launches a campaign.

If Harris receives the financial backing you’d expect, she’ll be very difficult to beat in either a primary or a general election. At +300, I still think she stands out as the best value bet of the bunch.

Best Bet: Kamala Harris (+300)
Sleeper Bet: Rick Caruso (+2800)

Recent California Governors