2024 NFL Christmas Football Games Odds and Predictions

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Week 17 is unlike any other week of the 2024-25 NFL regular season with games on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. It kicks off with two Wednesday games on Christmas Day that feature massive postseason ramifications as all four teams are jockeying for Playoff position.

It’s clear that NFL fans have been good little boys and girls this year because we’re getting treated to two thrilling Christmas Day games. We don’t have to look further than Thanksgiving and Black Friday where the NFL matchups were uninspiring to say the least. In fact, three of the four games inspired food comas. That won’t happen on Christmas Day.

Since 2020, the NFL has played an annual Christmas game regardless of which day of the week the Holiday fell on. However, that wasn’t always the case. The NFL outright avoided Christmas from 1943 to 1970.

In 1971, a Divisional Round Playoff game fell on Christmas and the NFL fans were in an uproar over it. So, the league decided to avoid Christmas like the plague. Nearly two decades later, in 1989, the league decided to return to Christmas action. It was probably inspired by the hit Christmas movie Die Hard. In 1990, the league included a Bye Week which meant that the regular season would extend beyond Christmas time.

So, if Christmas fell on a traditional NFL day of games like Monday, Saturday or Sunday, then the league would play on the Holiday. That was the strategy until 2020, when the NFL decided it wanted to take over every major holiday throughout the season. In short, the NFL wanted to conquer Christmas like Philly fans throwing things at Santa and booing jolly old St. Nick out of the stadium. 

This year, the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers will start the holiday off with a battle of top AFC teams. They will be followed by two more Playoff teams in the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans.

However, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell wants to keep all football fans on their toes by adding these Christmas Day games to Netflix instead of broadcast TV like the traditional holiday games on Thanksgiving. So, boys and girls, you better get your Netflix membership to see these two gridiron contests.

With that said, let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 17 NFL Predictions for the 2024 NFL Christmas football games.

Who’s Playing Football On Christmas?

The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the AFC’s #1 team Kansas City Chiefs with a 1pm ET start time. This is the second consecutive season that Kansas City is playing on Christmas Day.

The AFC South leading Houston Texans will host the top AFC Wild Card team in the Baltimore Ravens. This game kicks off at 4:30 pm ET, if the first game is over by then. If not, then the game won’t begin until the Chiefs vs. Steelers are done.

What Channel Is Christmas Day Football on?

The two Christmas Day football games will stream live on Netflix for the first time ever. The NFL charged Netflix a reported $150 million dollars for these two games.

Yet, the deal isn’t for just this year. Netflix has reportedly signed a deal for Christmas Day games over the next three seasons. Let’s just hope we don’t run into buffering issues like the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight, which was a miserable viewing experience in more ways than one. 

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NFL Christmas Football Games Betting

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for these two Christmas Games and monitor how the lines change as we get closer to kickoff.

Both the Kansas City Chiefs (-150) and Baltimore Ravens (-165) come into Christmas as the betting favorites in their respective matchups. Additionally, both are -2.5 to -3 point favorites. One more thing they have in common, both teams won on Saturday as well.

The Chiefs held on to beat the Houston Texans at home, while the Ravens treated their hometown fans to a three-score win over the Steelers.

Considering how Pittsburgh and Houston looked in Saturday’s games, it’s surprising that they’re both not bigger underdogs. The Steelers are at +125 odds and the Texans are listed at +140 odds. Once again, the lines are very similar between the underdog teams that lost in Week 16’s Saturday games.

The one area that differs between the two games is the Totals. The Chiefs vs. Steelers sits at an O/U of 43 points, while the Ravens vs. Texans comes in at 47.5 points. Oddsmakers expect more offense in the Baltimore vs. Houston matchup.

Make sure to monitor the injuries for each team. Most notably, keep an eye out for Pittsburgh’s wide receiver George Pickens. If he can return to action this week, it will definitely have an impact on the betting lines. As would a number of defenders for the Steelers who missed the Week 16 game versus Baltimore.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs have played against each other 37 times, including three postseason matchups. This weekend’s game definitely has a Playoff feel to it. The Steelers lead the series with a 23-14 record. However, the Chiefs have won three games in a row versus the Steelers.

Their last matchup came in a 2022 AFC Wild Card game where Kansas City routed Pittsburgh by the score of 42 to 21. In fact, the Chiefs have outscored the Steelers 78 to 31 in their last two meetings.

The Steelers do hold a strong advantage in home games with a 11-5 record. The Steelers have won six of the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh. Yet, the Chiefs won their last trip to Pittsburgh in 2018.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends

Check out the latest Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers betting trends:

Chiefs vs. Steelers Betting Trends

• Steelers are 6-4 SU in last 10 meetings
• Steelers are 6-1 SU in last seven home games
• Chiefs are 6-4 ATS in last 10 matchups
• Under is 6-4 in last 10 contests

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• 5-0 SU in last five games
• 10-1 SU in last 11 road games
• 2-7 ATS in last nine games
• 2-5 ATS in last seven AFC games
• 5-1 ATS in last six AFC North games
• Under is 4-1 in last five December games

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends

• 7-3 SU in last 10 games
• 14-2 SU in last 16 Week 17 games
• 7-3 ATS in last 10 games
• 6-1 ATS in last seven home games
• 5-0 ATS in last five AFC West games
• Over is 6-2 in last eight December games
• Over is 7-3 in last 10 games

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Chiefs Offense vs. Steelers Defense

This in-game battle is going to be the one to watch on Christmas Day. The Chiefs offense versus the Steelers defense will decide who wins the game.

If Pittsburgh gets some of their defenders back for this matchup, then I like their chances of gaining the advantage versus KC’s offense.

It’s well-known by now that the Chiefs offensive line is their weak spot. Pittsburgh has a strong pass rush that will get after Patrick Mahomes. TJ Watt and company will abuse KC’s offensive tackles.

KC will have to throw quick passes and try to establish the run. However, after Pitt just got gashed by the Ravens rushing attack, I expect the Steelers to get back to their #7 run defense that allows only 102.7 ypg.

Another area that will be crucial for this in-game battle is the third down conversion. Kansas City leads the NFL in third down conversion rate at 50.95%. That’s a staggering number and a big reason why they are having success on the offensive side of the ball.

The Steelers rank 6^th in the league for third down conversions at just 35.36%. So, if Pittsburgh can get Mahomes and company off the field by holding them to more three-and-outs, then they’re going to have a great shot at winning this game.

Pittsburgh allows 220.7 passing yards per game and the Chiefs average 225.9 passing yards per game. If the Steelers get some of their starters back then I expect this defense to contain Mahomes.

Chiefs Defense vs. Steelers Offense

On the flip side, the Steelers offense is very limited without wide receiver George Pickens. He stretches the field, forces defenses to shade a safety over to his side, and opens up the zones for other players like Austin and Freiermuth.

Pickens also makes defenses drop more defenders out of the box, which allows Pittsburgh’s running game to have more success on the ground.

The Chiefs have the third best run defense at 91.4 yards per game. The Steelers are 10^th in the NFL with 126.0 rushing yards per game. Without Pickens, Pittsburgh is in trouble. With the receiver, they will have more room to find success on the ground.

As for the passing attack, it’s modest at best without Pickens. And, the Steelers’ offensive line has the 10^th highest sack rate in the league. The Chiefs don’t generate a lot of sacks, as they rank 24^th in the league. However, they do create a lot of pressure, win in the trenches, and force most teams to become one-dimensional.

As of this writing, I give the slight edge to the Chiefs defense. If Pickens is healthy and plays, then I like Pittsburgh’s chances.

Who Wins: Chiefs or Steelers?

This game really comes down to the health of key players for Pittsburgh. As I laid out above, Pickens is crucial for the Steelers to win this game. They will also need two of their starters to return in the secondary as well. And, keep an eye on Porter who was injured in the Ravens game.

Every team is suffering from injuries at this time of the year. However, when it comes to playing the best teams in the league, like the Chiefs, you need all of your key players.

So, as of this writing, I am taking the Chiefs to win the game and cover the spread. It’s just hard seeing Pittsburgh win without Pickens and company. Having home field will help, but this is a one-score game that the Chiefs seem to always win.

If you think the Steelers will win with or without Pickens, then jump on the points right now. However, if you think the Chiefs will win then you might get better value if Pickens and company return.

With that said, the Chiefs defense will harass Wilson all day without Pickens. They will also stuff the running game, which basically renders this offense null and void.

On the flip side, if Pittsburgh doesn’t have Porter and Jackson then KC’s offense will throw all over this Steelers’ secondary.

There are just too many “ifs” to bet on Pittsburgh for this Christmas Game.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-150), Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans Odds

The Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans have played against each other 14 times and the Ravens hold a massive lead in this series with a 12-2 record. Baltimore has won five consecutive games versus Houston including their last meeting 11 months ago in the AFC Divisional Round game. The Ravens won 34 to 10 in that Playoff matchup. They’ve defeated Houston twice in the postseason.

The Ravens are also 4-2 when playing at Houston, which includes winning their last trip to H-Town in 2020. The Texans have taken two out of the last three meetings in Houston.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans Betting Trends

Check out the latest Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans betting trends:

Ravens vs. Texans Betting Trends

• Ravens are 8-2 SU in last 10 meetings
• Ravens are 5-0 SU in last five contests
• Ravens are 6-4 ATS in last 10 matchups
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in last five games
• Under is 7-1-2 in last 10 contests

Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends

• 10-3 SU in last 13 games
• 7-1 SU in last eight December games
• 4-1 ATS in last five AFC South games
• Over is 9-2 in last 11 games
• Over is 8-1 in last nine road games

Houston Texans Betting Trends

• 7-2 SU in last nine home games
• 10-4 SU in last 14 AFC games
• 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as the Underdog
• Under is 6-3 in last nine December games
• Under is 7-2 in last nine Week 17 games

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Ravens Offense vs. Texans Defense

The Baltimore Ravens offense was on full display in their Week 16 matchup versus the Steelers. Baltimore ran all over Pittsburgh and then Lamar Jackson made plays when called upon. It was a scary reminder to the rest of the league that this team is lethal.

During the game, commentator Tom Brady stated that the Ravens are a “sleepy giant.” That giant is waking up at the right time.

Houston has a Top 10 defense as they rank 7^th against the pass (200.5 ypg) and 10^th against the run (106.8 ypg). They also rank 9^th in points allowed at 21.9 points per game and 5^th in total yards allowed at 307.3 ypg.

Unfortunately, the Texans struggled against the Chiefs in Week 16 as they allowed 27 points, 25 first downs, 7-13 on third downs, and 375 total yards. KC put up 124 rushing yards as well.

These numbers should have all Texans fans worried about Christmas Day. Baltimore has a better offense than the Chiefs do as they’re 3^rd in scoring (30.1 ppg), 1^st in total yards (423.7 ypg), 3^rd in TDs per game (3.7), 2^nd in rushing yards (181.2 ypg), 7^th in rushing touchdowns per game (1.1), and 4^th in passing yards (242.5 ypg).

This offense is a powerhouse and I expect it to wear down a talented Texans defense. The floodgates should open in the fourth quarter as this offense steamrolls the Houston defense. Look for Henry and Jackson to put up big numbers on the ground.

Ravens Defense vs. Texans Offense

On the flip side, Baltimore’s defense is playing a lot better. They have the second worst passing defense, but that unit has gotten better over the last few weeks. They’re first against the run which means that Houston is in trouble trying to run.

Last week, versus the third rank run defense in KC, running back Joe Mixon only had 57 rushing yards. He will probably end up with a similar stat line this week as Baltimore is going to be the stocking stuffer in regards to stopping the run.

Where Houston’s offense will have any hope, it’s in throwing the ball. Sadly, their #2 WR and key weapon for CJ Stroud, Tank Dell, suffered a serious leg injury last week and won’t be available for the rest of the year.

Baltimore will be able to double Nico Collins and force Stroud to dump the ball off or look for Woods and Hutchison. You have to like Baltimore’s advantage in this area as well.

Who Wins: Ravens or Texans?

It’s hard seeing Houston win this game. First, Baltimore is 12-2 versus the Texans all-time. Second, Baltimore is getting healthier and heating up at the right time. Houston appears to be cooling off and struggling from injuries to the offense.

If KC can run for 125 yards, Baltimore should be able to run for 175 yards. Houston needs to play their best game of the season to beat the Ravens and I don’t see it happening.

Jackson could end up with a big performance as well. He should be able to allude the Texans’ pass rush and either run for big yards or extend plays to complete longer passes down the field.

Ultimately, Baltimore is just too talented for the Texans to handle. Take Baltimore to win the game outright and to cover the three-point spread. Ravens are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus the Texans. The Ravens are also 7-1 SU in their last eight December games.

Bet: Baltimore Ravens (-165), Ravens -3 (-110)

Christmas Day Football Best Bets

IThe following is a list of the best bets for Christmas Day football games:

• Kansas City Chiefs (-150)
• Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
• Baltimore Ravens (-165)
• Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110)

The theme for the two home teams on Christmas Day are that they’re entering the games undermanned as they’re down key players on both sides of the ball.

For the Steelers, if they’re secondary isn’t at full strength then Mahomes will carve them up with passes to Hopkins, Worthy, Brown and Kelce.

And, if Pickens doesn’t play then the Steelers offense will be severely limited. You can expect the Chiefs defense to tee off on Wilson, Harris and Warren. KC should easily win by a field goal versus a Steelers team void of key talent.

As for the Texans, without Tank Dell, the Ravens will double up Nico Collins and force other receivers like Woods and Hutchinson to beat them. That won’t happen. Additionally, they have the #1 run defense to stop Mixon and the rest of the Texans’ running backs.

Baltimore’s offense is also far too much for the Houston defense to handle. The Chiefs showed the blueprint for beating the Texans and the Ravens will not only follow it, but they will also make it look even better. Baltimore wins in a route.

Christmas Day Football Records

The following is a list of each NFL team’s Christmas Day record. There are eight teams that have never played on Christmas Day as of 2024.