2024-25 NCAA College Football Playoffs Odds and Predictions

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The stage is finally set. The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff field was announced on Sunday, Dec. 8, by the CFP committee. It was no surprise that the nation’s only remaining unbeaten, Oregon (13-0), was installed as the No. 1 seed. Georgia, which came back and won the SEC title game in overtime, is the No. 2 seed.

Boise State, champions of the Mountain West, and Arizona State, surprising winners of the Big 12 championship game, are seeds No. 3 and 4, respectively. The top four seeds will have the luxury of watching the first weekend of playoff action as the other eight teams battle to reach the quarterfinals.

No. 5 seed Texas will host the ACC champion, 12th-ranked Clemson. The winner of that game will play No. 4 Arizona State in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day. Penn State lost to Oregon in the Big Ten championship and will be the No. 6 seed. The Nittany Lions get a home game against SMU, the ACC runner-up. The Mustangs were the one big question heading into Sunday’s selections. SMU went unbeaten in ACC regular season play and did come back from a deficit to tie Saturday’s ACC title game. Ultimately, Clemson kicked a last-second field goal for a 34-31 victory.

The winner of SMU-Penn State will take on third-seeded Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Notre Dame earned the No. 7 seed and will host No. 10 Indiana, which enjoyed its best season in school history under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. The winner of that first-round game will travel to the Sugar Bowl and take on Georgia on Jan. 1.

Ohio State, which lost to Michigan in its annual year-end battle, got the eighth seed and will play at home against No. 9 Tennessee. The winner gets the opportunity to play No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.

As has been the case all season, get the latest college football picks from the experts here at Scores & Stats. Our experts really showed up last week, going 18-11 over and nailing both of our Best Bets. Now, join us on this journey as we navigate the first ever 12-team CFP field and make our way to the 2024-25 College Football Championship.

How Many Teams Are in the College Football Playoffs?

The new 2024-25 College Football Playoffs will feature 12 teams using a 5 plus 7 format. This means the five highest-ranked conference champions will automatically qualify for this year’s CFP. Again, keep in mind that we now have four Power Conferences – ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and the SEC. That means one Group of 5 conference champion is making the postseason tournament.

Here’s how it all works. As mentioned, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive an automatic bid to the 2024-25 college football playoffs. The four highest-ranked conference champs will receive a first-round bye. The seven highest-ranked teams remaining will round out the playoff field.

The selection committee will seed the teams No. 5 through No. 12 and those teams will face each other in the first round of the playoffs. These first-round games as well as semi-final round games will be played as part of the New Year’s Six bowl games (Rose, Cotton, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and Peach Bowls) on a rotating basis. Read on to see this year’s schedule of bowl games as part of the 2024-25 college football playoffs.

In the first-round, the No. 5 seed plays No. 12, No. 6 faces No. 11, and so on. Teams are not reseeded after the first round, meaning the top overall seed in the playoffs will play the winner of the No. 8-No. 9 first-round game.

2024-25 College Football Playoffs Schedule

This year’s College Football Playoffs schedule is as follows.

First Round

• Friday, December 20, 2024: One Game (evening)
• Saturday, December 21, 2024: Three Games (early afternoon, late afternoon and evening)

Quarterfinal Round

• Tuesday, Dec. 31: Fiesta Bowl, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
• Wednesday, Jan. 1: Peach Bowl, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
• Wednesday, Jan. 1: Rose Bowl, Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California
• Wednesday, Jan. 1: Sugar Bowl, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Semifinal Round

• Thursday, Jan. 9: Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
• Friday, Jan. 10: Cotton Bowl, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

CFP National Championship Game

• Monday, Jan. 20: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

2024-25 College Football Playoffs Odds

Keep an eye on the latest College Football Odds and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

All four of the higher seeds in the first round of the College Football Playoff are favored to win. Those four higher seeds get the luxury of playing on their home field in the opening round and, as a result, all four are laying more than a touchdown. Ohio State, which plays Tennessee, and Notred Dame, which faces Indiana, are the shortest favorites at -7.5.

Last weekend in conference championship week, there was not a single favorite of more than six points. That hadn’t happened since 2006. Now, in the first round of the playoffs all four underdogs are catching more than a touchdown. It’s worth noting that SEC underdogs went 40-18 ATS this season. Now, that was in conference games, but Tennessee is getting 7.5 points from Ohio State. The Vols only had two losses all season (Arkansas, Georgia) and only one was by more than five points.

We’re at a point in the season where all of these playoff matchups will feature ranked opponents. In these situations, the favorite is typically the better bet. Since the 2020 season, favorites are 124-92-5 ATS in ranked vs. ranked games (regular season or postseason). That’s a winning percentage of 57 percent. This season, ranked favorites are 22-16 ATS against their ranked opponents.

In the last ten College Football Playoff games, the favorite is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. Michigan won and covered its Semifinal game and the Championship Game last season. In 2022, Georgia was the only CFP favorite to win but not cover in the last ten CFP games.

College Football Week Playoffs Predictions

Let’s take a look at the featured College Football Week 15 games and make our spread, total, and moneyline NCAAF picks for each game.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds

Indiana and Notre Dame are separated by about 200 miles on US Route 31 in the Hoosier state. Despite the proximity, these two schools haven’t played each other since 1991, which was the only meeting since 1960. The two have played a total of just 29 times with Notre Dame holding a 23-5-1 advantage in the series.

Notre Dame, of course, has a long and storied past in college football. The Fighting Irish and Texas are tied for fourth on the list of winningest college football programs. Indiana has a history of failure in college football. The Hoosiers actually have the most losses in the FBS history and the fourth-worst winning percentage.

A handful of coaches, like ESPN’s Lee Corso for example, have had some success at Indiana. Cignetti had the best season in the school’s history in 2024. Indiana finished 11-1 SU this season and 9-3 ATS. The Hoosiers finished No. 2 in the country in scoring averaging 43.3 points per game. The defense was solid too, finishing No. 6 giving up 14.6 points per game.

Notre Dame lost just once this season to Northern Illinois, 16-14. The Irish went 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS during the season. Notre Dame was also one of the top offensive teams – 4th in scoring, 39.8 points per game – and top defensive teams – 3rd in points allowed, 13.5 points per game.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Predictions

Many experts forget that Indiana is very good on defense. The Hoosiers have the No. 1-ranked rushing defense in the country, allowing just 76.2 yards on the ground per game. Notre Dame lives and dies by the run. The Fighting Irish average 224.8 rushing yards per game, 11th-best in the nation.

In their only loss of the season, Notre Dame was held to a season-low 123 rushing yards by Northern Illinois. Indiana has the ability to do the same. Indiana hasn’t allowed more than 116 rushing yards in any of its last ten games. The Hoosiers will be content watching Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard try to beat them.

On the other side, Hoosiers QB Nathan Rourke leads a potent passing attack and an offense that is second in the nation in scoring. That should be enough to at least keep this game close. Yes, Notre Dame’s defense is outstanding – third in the nation, 13.6 points per game – but Indiana is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games.

Bet: Notre Dame -285, Indiana +7.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-110)

SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Odds

SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee believed all along that his SMU Mustangs would be in the College Football Playoff even if they lost the ACC title game. SMU fell behind Clemson in that game, came back to tie it, and ultimately did lose. The CFP committee felt that SMU’s body of work and its 11-2 record warranted the Mustangs the No. 11 seed. Lashlee’s team will face Penn State, which backed into the Big Ten championship game thanks to an Ohio State loss to Michigan on the final day of the regular season.

These two schools have played just twice in the history of college football. They played on New Year’s Day in the Cotton Bowl back in 1947 and then in 1978 at Beaver Stadium where Penn State won 26-21.

This season was SMU’s first in the ACC. The Mustangs surprised everyone by ending conference play at 8-0, the only unbeaten team in the ACC. SMU had won the American Athletic Conference title last season, but failed in its bid to win two straight conference titles. SMU beat Louisville and Duke, both 5-3 in the conference. All the Mustangs other conference opponents were .500 or worse.

Penn State finished 11-2 with the loss to Oregon in the Big Ten championship and an earlier regular season loss to then No. 4 Ohio State. Head coach James Franklin is now 1-14 SU against top-5 teams. Penn State finished 6-7 ATS this season, but the Nittany Lions are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at home.

SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions

The SMU football program has come a long way from the Death Penalty back in the mid-1980s. There were some pretty tough years before June Jones started to turn the corner in the late 2000s. Still, it wasn’t good enough and ultimately the program really saw a shift when Sonny Dykes took over in 2018. Rhett Lashlee took over in 2022 and now has back-to-back 11-win seasons and has played in two conference championships (winning one).

Both teams have high-powered offenses. SMU’s offense is eighth in the nation in scoring, averaging 38.5 points per game. What many don’t realize is that the Mustangs defense is pretty good too. Penn State’s defense gets plenty of press. The Nittany Lions are eighth in scoring, 11th against the run, and 15th in passing defense. SMU ranks 28th in scoring, 59th against the pass, and fourth against the run.

SMU’s schedule was nowhere near as difficult as Penn State’s. The Nittany Lions played No. 19 Illinois, No. 4 Ohio State, and No. 1 Oregon just last week. They did lose two of those games (Ohio State & Oregon).

SMU faced No. 22 Louisville, No. 18 Pitt, and No. 17 Clemson. The Mustangs lost to Clemson last weekend. Pitt ended up losing each of its last five games and Louisville finished 8-4. Regardless, SMU has the kind of chip on its shoulder that will drive Penn State and head coach James Franklin nuts. Franklin and Penn State are 13-29 SU against ranked opponents.

Bet: Penn State -335, SMU +8.5 (-110), Over 53.5 (-110)

Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns Odds

Both Texas and Clemson have national championships to their name. They are two very recognizable college football programs. Texas, of course, is among the winningest FBS programs in the history of the game. Clemson has played in six College Football Playoffs already. This first-round playoff game will be the first time in the history of the sport that these two teams have met.

These two teams are eerily similar. Neither played all that strong of a schedule. Clemson lost to Louisville and rival South Carolina in addition to a season-opening loss to Georgia. Texas lost two games all season – both to Georgia.

Neither team was very good against the number either. Both teams are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The larger spread may favor the Tigers. Clemson was an underdog just twice this year. Last week against SMU in the ACC title game, the Tigers won as 2.5-point underdogs. In their first game of the season, Clemson lost to Georgia 34-3 as 10.5-point dogs.

Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions

Texas has two losses this season. We mentioned it already that both were to Georgia. Other than the two games against the Bulldogs, Texas’ opponents had an overall winning percentage of .492 (65-67). Sure, the Longhorns have one of the best defenses in the country. That’s how they have won games.

Texas ranks No. 2 in points allowed per game (12.5). The Longhorns are third in total defense, 15th against the run and fourth against the pass. The Longhorns didn’t allow Georgia to run the ball (29 & 31 yards) in either game but got gashed for 358 in the SEC title game.

Clemson QB Cade Klubnik leads an offense that is 14th in the nation in passing offense, averaging over 275 yards per game. Clemson is 15th in the country, scoring 35.5 points per game. They put up 34 in last week’s ACC championship game against a pretty good SMU defense. In a conference championship game with a team that has as much postseason experience as Clemson, 11 points is just too much to lay.

Bet: ML pass, Clemson +11 (-110), Under 51.5 (-110)

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

These are two of the oldest FBS programs in college football history, both dating back to the early 1890s. In the entire history of each program since, these two teams have met exactly once. That was in the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1, 1996. The Vols had a quarterback named Peyton Manning and Ohio State had a running back named Eddie George. Manning would earn the game’s MVP and Tennessee won 20-14.

Fast forward a couple decades and the two storied programs meet in the first-round of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Tennessee lost to Arkansas and No. 2 Georgia this season. Ohio State lost to No. 1 Oregon and then was upset by rival Michigan in its season finale.

Tennessee has won six of its last seven games, but they are 3-5 ATS in their last eight. Ohio State has won five of its last six games and 13 of its last 14 at home in the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have not fared well against teams from the SEC. In their last ten games against SEC schools, Ohio State is just 2-8 SU.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Predictions

Can Ohio State head coach Ryan Day win big games? Day is now 1-4 against rival Michigan after getting upset on the final day of the regular season as 20.5-point favorites. Day is 19-9 SU against ranked teams and the Buckeyes have been to three College Football Playoffs.

This is new turf for Tennessee, which like many of the teams in the CFP, has a high-powered offense and one of the better defenses in the nation. The Vols have the No. 10 scoring offense (37.2 ppg) and the defense in No. 5 giving up 13.9 points per game.

On the other side, Ohio State actually has the top defense in college football. The Buckeyes have allowed just 10.9 points per game and rank in the top seven against both the run and pass. OSU allowed 32 points to Oregon and in every other game gave up 17 points or less.

While many might think the offenses will take control, these two defenses should shine. Both offenses will likely feel each other out early and the pace of this game will favor a Tennessee cover and the Under.

Bet: Ohio State -267, Tennessee +7.5 (-120), Under (-110)

Best Bets for the College Football Playoffs

With a limited number of playoff games, our college football experts were able to dive into each game and come up with a pair of awesome best bets. Let’s take a look.

• Tennessee (1H) +4.5 @ Ohio State
• Clemson (3Q) +2.5 @ Texas

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel has coached at UCF and Tennessee. Between the two teams, he has amassed the best first half ATS record among all FBS coaches over the last 20 years. His teams cover the first half spread 68 percent of the time. In road games, his teams are even better, covering 76 percent of the time.

Likewise, Clemson is one of the best third quarter teams in college football. It’s all about halftime adjustments and head coach Dabo Swinney is the master. Clemson is 17th nationally in points in the third quarter and they won all but two third quarters this season. They have covered the third quarter spread in each of their last five games.

As you have seen throughout the season, you can place bets on each of these individually. The Tennessee bet is priced at -122 and the Clemson bet is given -110 odds. If you bet $100 on each and win both, you will profit $172.88. Now, you could parlay the two wagers into a single bet and lay $100 on it. If both legs of the parlay cash, you earn $247 (at odds of +247).