2024-25 NCAA College Football Playoffs Odds and Predictions

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It was pretty much a similar story in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals as three of the four games saw favorites win by double digits. Will it be more of the same in the College Football Playoffs semifinals? We’re now down to four with two Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Penn State) and just one from the SEC (Texas).

Notre Dame (13-1) is back in the mix after defeating Georgia rather easily – 23-10 – in the All-State Sugar Bowl. The Fighting Irish continue to play outstanding defense. Could that lead to the school’s first national championship since 1988? The Irish will face Penn State in the first of two College Football Playoffs semifinals this week.

Ohio State was somewhat of a surprise winner over Oregon. The Ducks had beaten the Buckeyes during the regular season, 32-31. Ohio State was a 2.5-point favorite against Oregon and led 34-0 until the final play of the first half. Ohio State would end up winning 41-21 as it looks for its first College Football Playoff championship since 2014.

Now that the College Football Playoffs Semifinals are set, let’s dive into this week’s action. First, let’s recap the College Football Playoffs format and schedule.

2024-25 College Football Playoffs Odds

Keep an eye on the latest College Football Odds and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

What’s interesting with the final four teams in the College Football Playoffs is that none of them were seeded in the top three. The No. 1, 2, and 3 teams in the CFP were eliminated despite having a first-round bye. No. 4 Arizona State was also eliminated in a double-overtime loss to Texas (39-31).

The remaining four teams are the No. 5 through No. 8 seeds. None of the final four teams won a conference championship. Notre Dame, of course, is an independent. Texas lost to Georgia twice during the season, once in the regular season and again in the SEC championship game. Penn State and Ohio State both hail from the Big Ten. Both teams lost to Oregon. Ohio State, as we mentioned earlier, lost in the regular season. Penn State lost in the Big Ten title game.

Our Scores & Stats college football experts have noted that since the 2020 season, favorites are 127-93-5 (57.7%) in games featuring ranked opponents. This season in games featuring two ranked opponents, the favorite is 25-17 ATS. Also worth mentioning is this – in the last 14 College Football Playoff games, the favorite is 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS.

College Football Week Playoffs Predictions

Let’s take a look at the featured College Football Playoff games and make our spread, total, and moneyline NCAAF picks for each game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Odds

What do all four College Football Playoff semi-finalists have in common? They all rank in the top five in the FBS in scoring defense. Notre Dame is No. 2 and Penn State ranks fifth. Notre Dame has remained an independent since its beginnings. Penn State was an independent until 1990. These two powers have only played each other 19 times.

They did play each other in 12 consecutive seasons between 1981 and 1992. Penn State won eight times during that 12-year span. The two teams are tied at 9-9-1 the series. They last played each other in the 2007 regular season at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pa. Penn State won that game 31-10. The Nittany Lions were 18-point favorites that day and covered easily.

Thursday night’s clash will be the first meeting between the two schools since 2007. Notre Dame has won 12 straight games since an early upset loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish have covered in 10 straight. The Nittany Lions have won six of their last seven games. They are 5-2 ATS in those seven.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions

It’s a shame one of these teams has to lose, but one of them will. As mentioned, both have outstanding defense. Penn State limits opponents to 15.8 points per game. Notre Dame holds teams to 13.6 per game. The Irish gave up 35 to USC in a shootout. The only other team to score more than 17 points on Notre Dame was Louisville (24).

The Irish have covered in 10 straight games. They were the favorite in all 10. Notre Dame will be the best pass defense that Penn State QB Drew Allar will see all season long. The Irish allow 167.4 passing yards per game.

On the other side, Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard is equally adept at beating opponents with his arm or his legs. Last week in the win over Georgia, he was ND’s leading rusher (80 yards on 14 carries) and he threw a touchdown pass. That was his seventh consecutive game with at least one touchdown pass.

The Penn State defense held Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty in check in their quarterfinal win. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love is dinged up. He leads a very strong Irish running game, but Penn State ranks eighth against the run. That means this is going to be a low-scoring, close game between two teams built a lot alike. With the spread under a field goal, the advantage goes to the favorite.

Bet: Notre Dame -130, Notre Dame -1.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-110)

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns Odds

These two teams got here on different paths. Texas beat Clemson 38-24 in their first-round playoff game, but then had to go to double overtime to beat Arizona State 39-31 last week. Now, the Longhorns get Ohio State who blew out Tennessee 42-17 then blew out the No. 1 seed Oregon 41-21.

These two powers are among the winningest college football programs in the history of the sport. They have only played three times since 2005. They last played in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl. Texas won the game 24-21. The two teams played a regular season back-to-back in 2005 and 2006. Texas won 25-22 in 2005 and Ohio State returned the favor with a 24-7 victory the following year.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions

Both programs have undergone massive changes since the early 2000s. This season, Ohio State lost just twice, but the losses almost cost the Buckeyes a shot at being in the College Football Playoffs semifinals. Ohio State lost by one to Oregon and then by three to rival Michigan in the regular season finale. The Buckeyes offense is potent as we’ve seen over the last two weeks with 42 and 41 points scored in the playoffs. But, it’s the defense that really dictates Ohio State’s success.

The OSU defense ranks first in the nation in scoring. The Buckeyes hold opponents to 12.1 points per game. Ohio State has held 12 of 14 opponents to 17 points or less. Texas ranks third in scoring defense (14.5), but the offense has had issues as of late. So has the defense. Both of Texas’ playoff games went Over the total because their stout defense allowed 24 and 31 points. Both of Ohio State’s playoff games went Over as well because of the Buckeyes putting up 40-plus points.

Texas could be down two key players in the secondary. Safety Michael Taafe and CB Malik Muhammad both went down in the game against Arizona State. They both ultimately returned to the game, but they may not be 100 percent. Ohio State QB Will Howard went off on Oregon’s secondary to the tune of 319 passing yards and three touchdowns. No defense has had an answer for Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith either. Smith had six receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Tennessee. Then, he grabbed seven balls for 187 yards and two more scores in the win over Oregon. The Buckeyes are rolling and they continue to peak at the right time.

Bet: Ohio State -225, Ohio State -6 (-110), Over 53.5 (-110)

Best Bets for the College Football Playoffs

With only two games to choose from, it was a little easier for our Scores & Stats experts to dive into these four remaining teams. Let’s take a look at our staff’s best bets for the College Football Playoffs semifinals.

• Penn State vs. Notre Dame – Riley Leonard Over 0.5 Passing TDs
• Ohio State vs. Texas – Jeremiah Smith Anytime TD

With two pretty close games, the Scores & Stats experts opted for some trending player props. Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard has thrown at least one touchdown pass in seven straight games. His passing TD prop is set at 0.5 with odds of -215. Remember, if you bet $100 on this prop, you would win $46.51.

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith has two receiving touchdowns in each of the Buckeyes College Football Playoff games. His Anytime TD prop is given odds of -155. A $100 wager on this prop would earn $64.52. That means if you bet a total of $200 ($100 on each bet) you would profit $111.03.

What you can also do is play these two bets as a parlay. Both bets must win in order for the parlay to win, but the parlay is given odds of +141. That means a single $100 wager will pay you a profit of $141.

How Many Teams Are in the College Football Playoffs?

The new 2024-25 College Football Playoffs will feature 12 teams using a 5 plus 7 format. This means the five highest-ranked conference champions will automatically qualify for this year’s CFP. Again, keep in mind that we now have four Power Conferences – ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and the SEC. That means one Group of 5 conference champion is making the postseason tournament.

Here’s how it all works. As mentioned, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive an automatic bid to the 2024-25 college football playoffs. The four highest-ranked conference champs will receive a first-round bye. The seven highest-ranked teams remaining will round out the playoff field.

The selection committee will seed the teams No. 5 through No. 12 and those teams will face each other in the first round of the playoffs. These first-round games as well as semi-final round games will be played as part of the New Year’s Six bowl games (Rose, Cotton, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and Peach Bowls) on a rotating basis. Read on to see this year’s schedule of bowl games as part of the 2024-25 college football playoffs.

In the first-round, the No. 5 seed plays No. 12, No. 6 faces No. 11, and so on. Teams are not reseeded after the first round, meaning the top overall seed in the playoffs will play the winner of the No. 8-No. 9 first-round game.

2024-25 College Football Playoffs Schedule

This year’s College Football Playoffs schedule is as follows.

First Round

• Friday, December 20, 2024: One Game (evening)
• Saturday, December 21, 2024: Three Games (early afternoon, late afternoon and evening)

Quarterfinal Round

• Tuesday, Dec. 31: Fiesta Bowl, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
• Wednesday, Jan. 1: Peach Bowl, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
• Wednesday, Jan. 1: Rose Bowl, Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California
• Wednesday, Jan. 1: Sugar Bowl, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Semifinal Round

• Thursday, Jan. 9: Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
• Friday, Jan. 10: Cotton Bowl, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

CFP National Championship Game

• Monday, Jan. 20: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia