2024 College Football Week 5 Odds and Predictions

In a blink of an eye, it’s already Week 5 of the 2024 college football season. All of the Top 10 teams that played last week were winners. Only two teams in the Top 25 fell victim to an upset by an unranked team. Kansas State felt the power of a night game at BYU and lost 38-9. The Cougars have won 27 of their last 30 home games played at 6 p.m. or later. 

No. 11 USC also found itself on the wrong side of things for the first time this season. The Trojans played their first Big Ten game in Week 4 at Michigan. The Wolverines passed for exactly 32 yards but beat USC 27-24 with a running game that netted 290 yards. 

Northern Illinois, which upset Notre Dame earlier this season, lost for the first time while ranked No. 23 in the country. The Huskies led Buffalo 17-10 early in the fourth quarter but had to rally to tie the game and send it to overtime. The Bulls won it 23-20 with an overtime field goal.

There will be plenty more opportunities this week for upsets. We get the first really huge clash of the season when No. 2 Georgia heads to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 4 Alabama. It will be the sixth straight meeting in which both teams are ranked in the Top 10. Alabama has won eight of the last nine games, including a 27-24 upset last year when the Crimson Tide was ranked No. 8 and Georgia was No. 1.

Our Scores & Stats experts will be here to guide you through all of the upsets (and non-upsets) from now until the 2024 college football national championship game. If you’re keeping score, our experts had a 61 percent winning percentage on the games covered in Week 4. They also cashed on a nice two-team parlay. If you want more of the same, read on as well dissect Week 5 of the 2024 college football season.

College Football Week 5 Odds

Keep an eye on the latest College Football Odds and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

As we move into the conference schedule for most teams in Week 5, we won’t see the huge double-digit spreads like we have previously. However, there are still a handful and, surprisingly, one is an SEC matchup. No. 1 Texas hosts 1-3 Mississippi State as 38.5-point favorites. Whether or not starting QB Quinn Ewers plays, the Longhorns should have a field day against the Bulldogs who have allowed 30 or more points in three consecutive games. 

We get four matchups of ranked opponents in Week 5. The game of the day that everyone is looking forward to is Georgia-Alabama. The Bulldogs are 2.5-point favorites. On the other end of the spectrum, No. 9 Penn State hosts No. 19 Illinois. The Nittany Lions are favored by 17.5 points.

There are plenty of times when betting on a game total or even on a quarter or half total makes a ton of sense in college football. This week, the highest listed total is 68.5 on the Washington State-Boise State game on Saturday night. Both teams average over 40 points a game and their defenses have been somewhat suspect.

The lowest game total on the board belongs to Air Force-Wyoming at 36.5. The Falcons triple option running game usually shortens games and Wyoming’s offense has been awful all season. The Cowboys haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their four games so far. Michigan-Minnesota comes in a close second with a total of 38.5.

College Football Week 5 Schedule

College Football Week 5 Predictions

Let’s take a look at the featured College Football Week 5 games and make our spread, total, and moneyline NCAAF picks for each game.

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes Odds

No. 7 Miami gets to enjoy a primetime ACC showdown with Virginia Tech. The Hokies have underwhelmed so far with a 2-2 record. They lost to Rutgers at home 26-23 last week. The Hokies defense is a Top 50 unit in total defense and they rank in the Top 20 in Havoc. Head coach Brent Pry’s problems are slow starts and consistency at quarterback. 

Miami does not have that problem, nor have they had many issues beating Virginia Tech recently. The Hurricanes are 7-3 SU in the last 10 games against the Hokies. The ‘Canes are 6-4 ATS, including 4-2 ATS in the last six. Miami is also 5-1 SU in its last six games overall, which includes the 4-0 SU start this season. The Hurricanes are 4-2 ATS in the team’s last six games. 

Cam Ward transferred to Miami from Washington State and has led one of the most prolific offenses in the FBS so far this season. Ward is second in the country in passing yardage (1,439 yards) and first in passing touchdowns with 14. Miami ranks No. 2 in the nation in scoring, averaging 51 points per game. Virginia Tech’s defense is good, but it has yet to face an opponent like Miami. 

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes Predictions

Elite quarterbacks are often the difference in FBS games. Miami has Cam Ward. Virginia Tech does not. Hokies QB Kyron Drones doesn’t come anywhere close to comparing with Ward. Drones is completing less than 60 percent of his passes and he’s got a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4-to-3. 

Ward is carving up opposing defenses and Virginia Tech’s, while admirable, will simply not be able to contain Ward or his cast of weapons. Isaiah Horton and Xavier Restrepo have 19 and 20 catches, respectively, for 278 and 362 yards. Restrepo has five touchdown receptions already this season. And, even though Ward and the Hurricanes passing game get all the hype, RB Damien Martinez rushed for three touchdowns last week.

Miami is 3-0 ATS against FBS competition this year. The Hokies are just 13-15 ATS in Pry’s tenure. Virginia Tech is also just 3-6 ATS when playing as a road underdog. The Hurricanes have covered two double-digit spreads already. They also pushed on a game total of 65 last week. The Hokies are no offensive juggernaut, but 8 of their last 10 games have gone Over as they have scored 27 or more points in 8 of the last 10.

Bet: ML pass, Miami -17 (-105), Over 55.5 (-112)

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats Odds

Both the Cowboys and Wildcats were losers last week. Oklahoma State dropped a 22-19 decision to No. 10 Utah while Kansas State felt the wrath of the BYU night game in Provo to the tune of a 38-9 defeat at the hands of the Cougars. K-State committed turnovers on three consecutive drives and BYU turned those into points in a game that was never really close.

The Wildcats have still won four of their last five and nine of their last 10 at home in Manhattan, Kansas. They have only covered in two of their last seven games. They have had success against the number when playing Oklahoma State at home. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against the Cowboys.

The Under trends for both teams. In the Cowboys last 20 games on the road, the Under has cashed a winner in 15 of them. The Under has also hit in four of Kansas State’s last five games and in five of the last six games played between these two teams.

Of the six games combined that the two teams have played against FBS competition, they Under is 4-2. The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS at home under Klieman. Oklahoma State is 6-5 ATS as a road underdog over the last five years.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats Predictions

Kansas State teams under Klieman do not typically turn the ball over often, if at all. That was uncharacteristic last week and definitely led to the upset loss to BYU. Don’t expect that again. The Wildcats will do a much better job of holding onto the football and avoiding turnovers. 

One of the keys is surely Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon. He was the nation’s leading rusher last year, but he’s off to a slow start in 2024. Gordon had just 42 yards in last week’s loss to Utah and he’s averaging only 64.5 yards per game for the season. Don’t forget, last year it took Gordon a good four weeks to get going. He rushed for 100-plus yards in six consecutive weeks last season starting in Week 4. Kansas State ranks 23rd in run defense allowing 99 yards per game.

Oklahoma State won last year’s game 29-21 at home. It was just two years ago that Kansas State destroyed the Cowboys at home, 48-0. The Wildcats gave up just 54 rushing yards while rushing for 199 of their own. They easily covered the 2.5-point spread and K-State is 6-4 ATS in the last ten meetings with OSU. 

Both of these teams are more defensive minded and both rely on running the football. Getting to 50 points is going to be a chore, especially if one or both teams have difficulty running the football. As mentioned, the Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Bet: Kansas State -205, Kansas State -6.5 (-105), Under 55.5 (-105)

Louisville Cardinals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds

Notre Dame claimed a second straight big victory with a 28-3 win over Miami (OH) last week. Now, they host No. 15 Louisville in one of Week 4’s four games between ranked opponents. The Cardinals took advantage of some mistakes by Georgia Tech last week to fight its way to a 31-19 win in ACC play. Louisville is now 3-0 SU and ATS this season.

The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 18 games overall and they’ve won 8 in a row in the month of September. Louisville has only played Notre Dame four times, winning the most recent game – last year – 33-20. The Cardinals were 6.5-point underdogs last year.

The Irish still have the College Football Playoff within their sights, but another loss likely sends those aspirations packing. The Cardinals are one of four unbeaten ACC teams and a win over the Irish would take them a step closer to securing a spot in this year’s new 12-team playoff. 

Notre Dame is tough to beat, especially at home, but it has been done already this season. The Irish are 6-1 SU in their last seven games and 9-2 SU in their last 11 at home. Their lone loss this season came at home at the hands of Northern Illinois in Week 2. 

Louisville Cardinals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Predictions

The Irish are seventh in the country in scoring defense (9.8 ppg) and 14th in total defense (256.3 ypg). Three of their four games have gone Under the total this season. Louisville, on the other hand, is 15th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 40 points per game. Six of the Cardinals’ last eight games have gone Over the total. Last year’s matchup between the two ended up on the Under. Last year’s final was 33-20 with the game total set at 53.5.

This year, the total is a bit lower at 47.5. Notre Dame has been outstanding on defense this season. Louisville will be the best offense the Irish have seen. QB Tyler Shough is completing over 68 percent of his passes for 850 yards and eight touchdowns. The Cardinals are 17th in the nation in total offense, averaging 471 yards per game. 

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman may have Notre Dame exactly where he wants them. The Irish also excel in September, especially when they’ve already suffered a loss. They are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of September. They also do well coming off big wins. In their last 39 games after a 20 points-plus victory, Notre Dame is 31-8 SU and 23-15-1 ATS.

Bet: Notre Dame -220, Notre Dame -5.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-105)

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds

No. 3 Ohio State travels to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans (3-1). The Spartans lost for the first time this season last week when they dropped a 23-19 decision to Boston College. New head coach Jonathan Smith has MSU playing a different brand of defense. The Spartans rank in the Top 25 in total defense and Top 30 in scoring defense.

The Buckeyes rule this Big Ten rivalry, which is no surprise. Ohio State has won the last seven games against MSU in a row. The Buckeyes have also covered the last eight in a row. Those last seven wins have all come by at least 20 points. That includes last year’s 38-3 win at home at the Horseshoe and a win in 2022 in East Lansing. The Buckeyes won and covered the 27-point spread in a 49-20 victory. 

Ohio State is off to a 3-0 SU start this season, giving the Buckeyes 14 wins in their last 16 games. They have also won 18 of their last 20 on the road and they’ve won each of the last nine times they have visited Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.

Michigan State is 4-2 SU in its last six games. The Spartans have only won three of their last 12 Big Ten games and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. The Under is 6-1 in MSU’s last seven games and the Under has been the trend in this series. Seven of the last nine OSU-MSU games have gone Under the total.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans Predictions

Any thoughts of Michigan State and home field advantage should be re-thought. Sure, MSU has played much better under Smith who took over the Spartans program last offseason. QB Aidan Chiles is solid, but he has not seen a defense like Ohio State’s. While the Spartans are playing very good defense, the Buckeyes are playing at an elite level.

Ohio State is No. 2 in the country in scoring defense, allowing 6.7 points per game. They are also second in the nation in total defense, allowing opponents just 181.7 total yards. In today’s wide open passing game, the Buckeyes are one of the best pass defenses, allowing just 113.3 passing yards per game. That ranks fourth-best in the FBS.

The Buckeyes have failed to cover two of their three spreads so far this year, but that’s because the numbers were 48.5 and 39.5. With this number at 24.5, it makes it a tough call. Ohio State has, however, won the last eight against MSU by an average of over 30 points per game. \

Stopping QB Will Howard (795 yds., 6 TDs), RB Quinshon Judkins (336 yds., 5 TDs), and WR Jeremiah Smith (281 yds., 4 TDs) will not be easy for Michigan State. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in the nation in scoring, averaging 52.3 points per game. They rank fourth in total offense (552.3 ypg) and the Buckeyes have reached 500 yards and at least 34 points in 6 of the last 8 games in the series. 

The Buckeyes defense also ranks second in Havoc. Don’t be surprised if OSU creates a couple turnovers, but getting to 50 points is going to be difficult. That is, unless the Buckeyes can do it all themselves.

Bet: ML pass, Ohio State -24 (-110), Over 49.5 (-110)

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds

It’s the game of the week and it will likely play a large role in both the SEC championship and this year’s first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s also a matchup of Top 5 opponents, something that doesn’t happen all that often in the regular season. 

The two SEC powers have played each other 73 times. Alabama holds a 43-26-4 lead in the series. The longest win streak in the series is seven games. That was set by Alabama beginning in 2008 and running until 2021. The two teams were in different divisions in the SEC prior to this year and did not play each other every year.

Georgia beat the Crimson Tide in January 2022 at the end of the 2021 season to claim the national championship. That victory over Alabama is Georgia’s only win against the Tide in the last nine meetings. In all nine of those games, both the Bulldogs and Tide were ranked in the Top 25. Only once – Alabama 2015 (No. 13) – since 2008 have the teams not met as Top 10 opponents. 

Alabama is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games. The Crimson Tide have won 11 straight in the SEC and they are 7-0 SU in their last seven at home. Over their last 14 games, Alabama is 10-4 ATS. Georgia has won 19 of its last 20 games and 16 straight on the road. Georgia has covered the spread just twice in its last six games.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions

There is surely value on Alabama as an underdog, especially one that is playing at home. This is the first time since 2007 that Nick Saban won’t be on the sideline for the Tide in this one. That season was also the last time that Alabama was a home underdog. It was against a Matt Flynn-led LSU team on Nov. 3rd of that year. Curious about the result? Read on.

Georgia, of course, has had issues with Alabama and has only one win in the last nine meetings. The Bulldogs are also 4-5 ATS in those nine games. If Alabama closes as a home underdog, it will be just the 17th time that has happened to a Top 5 team in the last 30 years. In the previous 16 games, the home dog is 4-12 SU and 7-9 ATS. By the way, Alabama is one of those 12 SU losses. The Tide lost to LSU in 2007, 41-34.

Since 1990, a Top 5 team has been a home underdog 71 times. Those home dogs are 18-53 SU and 28-42-1 ATS. Both teams play great defense. The edge might be Georgia QB Carson Beck just barely over Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. 

Keep this in mind too. Georgia averages 31.7 points per game. Alabama scores 49 per game. When two teams’ scoring averages surpass the game total by such a huge margin, the trend is not the Over. In a sample of roughly 1500 similar games, the Under cashes over 58 percent of the time.

Bet: Georgia -125, Georgia -2.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-105)

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Odds

Bret Bielema took over at Illinois in 2021. His first team only went 5-7, but one of the highlights of that season was a shocking 20-18 victory over Penn State on the road. That’s right. Bielema and the Illini have been here before. In 2021, Illinois was a 24.5-point underdog to the Nittany Lions.

Last year, Penn State exacted some revenge with a 30-13 win at Illinois. Head coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions covered as 14-point favorites. Penn State has won seven of the last 10 games against Illinois. The Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in the last five games in the series.

Five of the last seven and six of the last ten games between these two teams have gone Under the posted game total. In the last ten meetings, Illinois has only averaged 15.8 points per game. The Illini gave up 24 points to Nebraska in a win over the Cornhuskers last week. Illinois has still only given up 50 points for the season. The Under is 3-1 in Illinois’ four games this year.

Penn State is 4-0 SU and just 2-2 ATS. The Nittany Lions are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 Big Ten conference games. Illinois has been pretty good on the road as of late. The Illini are 8-2 ATS in their last ten away games.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions

There is no question that Illinois is very good defensively. They are allowing 16.7 points per game. That ranks 25th in the nation. Penn State, which routinely has some of the best defenses in the county, allows just 13 points a game, which is 15th overall. As far as total defense, Penn State holds the edge. The Nittany Lions rank sixth nationally allowing 229.3 yards per game. Illinois is 39th (327 ypg).

The difference in this one could very well be the dynamic Penn State offense. Franklin went out and hired a new offensive coordinator. Andy Kotelnicki came over from Kansas and Penn State is now averaging 41.3 points per game. That’s 13th-best among FBS teams. Penn State has won 10 of its last 11 at home and 9 of its last 11 against Illinois at home.

What’s also interesting is Coach Franklin’s record as a double-digit favorite. Including his time spent as Vanderbilt’s head coach, Franklin is 42-24-2 (63 percent) ATS as a double-digit favorite. That’s the best record of any FBS coach over the last 20 years. Happy Valley is a tough place to play, even when you are pretty good on defense. 

Our Scores & Stats experts believe this line will adjust as Illinois takes on more bets and money to cover. Wait as long as possible to get a more favorable number and then jump on Franklin and Penn State to cover.

Bet: ML pass, PSU -17.5, Over 47.5

Arizona Wildcats vs. Utah Utes Odds

Arizona was off last week after losing to Kansas State in Week 3. The Wildcats were outplayed, especially at the line of scrimmage, will need to play better up front or they are in for a world of hurt. Utah comes into this one ranked No. 10 in the country. The Utes won a big one last week, picking up a 22-19 Big 12 victory over No. 20 Oklahoma State. 

Utah did it with a punishing ground game and is now 4-0 to start the season. The Utes are very good at home too. Utah has won 19 of its last 20 games at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Kyle Wittingham’s team is 5-1 SU in its last six games, but the Utes haven’t been all that great against the number. They are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. 

Arizona is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games, but 1-6 SU in the last seven against Utah. They are also just 6-14 SU in their last 20 road games. In those last seven games against the Utes, Arizona is 2-5 ATS. The Wildcats are, however, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. 

Arizona Wildcats vs. Utah Utes Predictions

If you happened to watch Kansas State take down Arizona in a Friday night game in Week 3, KSU held Arizona to 56 yards rushing. Star WR Tetairoa McMillan did catch 11 passes for 138 yards, but he really did do much damage. You can bet the Utes will do something similar. 

Last week, Utah held Oklahoma State to 48 yards rushing. Last year’s NCAA leading rusher Ollie Gordon gained a grand total of 42 yards. The Utes also pummeled the Cowboys front seven with a ground attack that netted 249 yards. RB Micah Bernard carried the ball 25 times for 182 yards. Expect more of the same on Saturday night. Arizona ranks 113th in the FBS in run defense allowing 223 yards per game. 

Utah has routinely been one of the top defenses in the nation. They are currently ranked in the Top 30 in run defense, total defense, and scoring defense. As a result, the Under trends for the Utes. The Under has cashed a winner in five of the last six Utah games and in four of the last six against Arizona.

Bet: ML Pass, Utah -11 (-110), Under 50.5 (-110)

Best Bets for College Football Week 5

Last week, the Scores & Stats college football experts fired up a nice pair of winning bets. If you parlayed those bets, you made a nice chunk of change. Our guys are back this week and, once again, they have sorted through the Week 5 schedule and they have come up with these best bets.

• Army (1H) -6.5 vs. Temple
• Virginia Tech vs. Miami -17

Service academies are typically strong first half bets when they are playing as an underdog. In this case, the Black Knights are still a strong bet because Temple is just terrible. Temple is 112th in run defense allowing over 221 rushing yards per game this season. Army, of course, makes its living with the triple option. The Knights lead the nation in rushing with 346.5 yards per game. Army is scoring 21 first-half points per game this season. Temple only averages 7.5 and just 19.8 per game.

Miami hosts Virginia Tech as a 17-point favorite. The Hurricanes are 4-0 SU and ATS for the first time since 2016. It’s only the third time that has happened since 1990. Since ‘90, Miami has been a double-digit favorite against the Hokies three times. They won all three games and covered in two. 

Army’s first-half bet at -6.5 pays out at -118. Miami -17 is given -144 odds. Now, you can bet $100 on each wager and when they both win, you’ll receive $69.44 for the Miami win and $84.75 for the Army win. That’s a total of $154.19 earned on your two $100 wagers.

Or, you can create a two-team parlay with these bets. You’ll bet them as a single unit for $100. The parlay odds on this wager are +213, meaning you win $213 on your single $100 wager!