2025 Daytona 500 Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions

On Sunday, February 16, NASCAR kicks off the 2025 Cup Series season with their Super Bowl of racing – the Daytona 500. This weekend’s 67^th running of “The Great American Race” also features qualifying, Duel races, the Xfinity event, a Truck race and more. For this analysis, we’ll be focusing exclusively on the Cup Series event.

Although this is the first race of the new season, and we are embarking on a 36-race journey to crown the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion, the Cup Series drivers had already shaken off the rust by competing in an exhibition race two weeks ago.

Chase Elliott came away with a dominating victory in the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray. However, that non-points race was on a short track and this weekend’s Daytona 500 takes place on a 2.5-mile superspeedway.

Due to the chaotic finishes of races at Daytona and Talladega, where we get massive wrecks, the field is crammed together at the top of the betting boards. In fact, we have nine drivers all listed within +1200 to +1600 odds to win this weekend’s race.

William Byron is the defending race winner of the Daytona 500. He’s actually tied for the second lowest odds along with his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott and rival Denny Hamlin.

Ahead of those three drivers are the Team Penske duo of Ryan Blaney and the defending Cup Series Champion Joey Logano, former teammate of theirs in Brad Keselowski, and the “love him or hate him” Kyle Busch.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Daytona 500 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s race at the Daytona International Speedway (DIS).

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Daytona 500 Race Profile

NASCAR’s Cup Series has held a race in Daytona since 1959, when it became the second 500-mile race on the calendar behind the beloved Southern 500 at Darlington. In 1961, this race was first referred to as the Daytona 500.

There’s so much history and tradition with the Daytona 500. Some of the sport’s most cherished moments have taken place at Daytona. And, sadly, we also lost the legendary Dale Earnhardt Sr. on a last-lap crash at the 2001 Daytona 500.

The history, the prestige, and the excitement of this race is always on full display as NASCAR proudly celebrates the Daytona 500 each year. The race itself, takes place on an asphalt track, with four turns and a 2.5-mile lap distance. 

Sunday’s Daytona 500 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 500 miles
• Total Laps: 200 laps
• Stage 1: 60 laps
• Stage 2: 60 laps
• Final Stage: 80 laps

The 67^th Daytona 500 will air on FOX beginning at 2:30pm ET.

Previous Daytona 500 Winners

“The King” Richard Petty holds the record for the most Daytona 500 wins with seven. Cale Yarborough is second all-time with four wins. Denny Hamlin is the only active driver with three Daytona 500 wins.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: William Byron
• 2023: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• 2022: Austin Cindric
• 2021: Michael McDowell
• 2020: Denny Hamlin
• 2019: Denny Hamlin
• 2018: Austin Dillon
• 2017: Kurt Busch
• 2016: Denny Hamlin
• 2015: Joey Logano

Daytona 500 Betting Odds

Check out the latest Daytona 500 odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Daytona 500 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Daytona 500:

Ryan Blaney +1200

After finishing runner-up for the 2024 Cup Series Championship, Blaney sets out on a new season with the hopes of winning his second championship in the last three years.

The #12 car has become one of the best drivers in the field with his Playoff poise and ability to drive on any surface or track distance.

In 19 starts at Daytona International Speedway, which includes both the Daytona 500 and Coke Zero Sugar 400, Blaney has one win, four Top 5s, seven Top 10s, a 19.7 average finish and nine DNFs.

Although he’s ascended to the upper echelon of the Cup Series field, Blaney has yet to win a Daytona 500. His lone win at DIS came in the 2021 Coke 400 race. Blaney also has a near 50% rate of not finishing a race at DIS. He’s crashed out of the last three Daytona events.

Blaney’s best Daytona 500 finish was second place in 2017 and 2020. Last year, he scored a DNF and ended up 30^th overall. In 2023, he was 8^th and in 2022, Blaney finished 4^th.

Like most drivers, if Blaney can survive the big crash in the final laps then he has a strong chance at finishing in the Top 10 or even challenge for a checkered flag.

Kyle Busch +1200

Kyle Busch will be making his 40^th start at DIS. In fact, he has the most starts among active drivers. Over that span, Busch has one win, nine Top 5s, 13 Top 10s, an 18.1 average finish and 12 DNFs.

Busch has six consecutive Top 20 results. Over that stretch, he also has one Top 5, four Top 10s and five Top 15s. Last year, Busch was 12^th at the Daytona 500 and 2^nd at the Coke 400. In fact, he was narrowly beat out at the Coke Zero Sugar 400, which prevented him from making the Playoffs.

That narrow defeat was an example of Busch’s disappointment last year. For the first time in 19 seasons, Busch did not pick up a single win during the season.

The veteran driver has never won a Daytona 500 race. His lone victory was in the summer/fall Daytona event. So, “Rowdy” would love nothing more than to score a win in the first race of the season and add a Daytona 500 victory to his impressive resume.

Can Busch turn last year’s disappointment into a triumphant start to the 2025 Cup Series season?

Brad Keselowski +1200   

Like Busch, Brad Keselowski has not won a Daytona 500 race. His lone DIS victory came in the 2016 summer/fall Daytona event. Unlike Busch, Keselowski did make the Playoffs last year after winning one race during the regular season.

And, unlike Busch, Keselowski hasn’t had much success at Daytona over the last seven or eight years. In 31 starts, he has one win, four Top 5s, eight Top 10s, a 22.2 average finish and 15 DNFs. Yet, he’s tallied 11 DNFs in the last 16 DIS events. That’s a terrible trend for the former NASCAR champ.

Keselowski’s 9^th place finish in the 2022 Daytona 500 is his best result since a third-place finish in 2014. Otherwise, he’s tallied five DNFs in the last six Daytona 500 races.

Despite his ability to drive at a high level on superspeedways, I don’t like his chances to win this weekend. I think the oddsmakers got this line wrong as they’re overvaluing someone who’s struggled in the Daytona 500 over the last handful of years.

Joey Logano +1200

The defending Cup Series Champion picked up the third championship of his career and the second in the last three years. In fact, Team Penske has won three Cup Series Championships in a row.

Logano rode the lucky train deep into the Playoffs and then relied on his skills to add another title to his mantle. The #22 car had a subpar regular season and was very fortunate to get into the Playoffs despite the struggles over the first six months of the season.

Then he advanced in the Playoffs due to a disqualification, which enraged fans who called for an overhaul of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff format. That was a bit of an overreaction by Logano’s critics in my opinion.

In addition to his three Cup Series Championships, Logano also has a Daytona 500 win on his resume. He took the checkered flag in 2015. In 32 DIS starts, Logano has one win, eight Top 5s, 11 Top 10s, a 17.9 average finish and nine DNFs.

Logano has crashed out of the last two DIS events, which includes the 2024 Daytona 500 after he started on the pole and led the most laps in the race (45). Logano did finish runner up in the 2023 Daytona 500 and 4^th in 2019. Otherwise, he has five DNFs in the last 10 DIS races.

Coming off a Championship season, I think Logano enters this year with no pressure on him. He’s now chasing after legacy, which means a second Daytona 500 could add to that. It could also put him in the Playoffs again, and give him a shot at his fourth Cup Series Championship.

I like for Logano to be a Top 10 driver with potential for a Top 5 and checkered-flag finish.

William Byron +1400       

As mentioned above, William Byron is the defending Daytona 500 winner. In fact, in 14 DIS starts, Byron has two wins, three Top 5s, four Top 10s and a 23.1 average finish.

The #24 car started 18^th last year, finished 5^th on Stage 1, 6^th on Stage 2, and only led four laps. Yet, they were the most important laps of the race. Byron also won the summer/fall Daytona race in 2020.

Byron does have 4 DNFs at DIS and nearly double-digit crashes. So, if he’s not finishing in the Top 5 or winning a DIS race, then the #24 car is crashing or scoring a DNF.

With that said, I really like what Byron did last year especially in the Playoffs. He came on strong in the postseason and finished 3^rd for the year. Byron was very consistent and competitive in the Playoffs along with his three wins on the year.

I think Byron builds off that momentum with a strong 2025 Cup Series season. That starts by scoring a Top 5 finish in the Daytona 500 and challenging for his second checkered flag in this prestigious race.

Chase Elliott +1400

Of all the Hendrick Motorsports drivers, Chase Elliott had the most disappointing season in 2024. He was able to pick up one victory, but was a non-factor in the Playoffs and faded before the Round of 8.

The 2020 Cup Series Champ has seemingly taken a backseat to his teammates like Kyle Larson, Byron and even Alex Bowman. All three drivers have had better stats across the board than Elliott over the last few seasons.

So, the #9 car really needs to bounce back this year. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening this weekend. He will have to wait another week before challenging for a checkered flag.

In 18 DIS starts, Elliott has zero wins, three Top 5s, five Top 10s and a 21.3 average finish. He’s tallied seven DNFs with three coming in the last five DIS races. Elliott’s best Daytona 500 result came in 2021, when he finished 2^nd. Last year, Elliott was 14^th in the Daytona 500 and 36^th in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. That’s a 25.0 average finish at DIS in 2024.

I fully expect Elliott to improve on that average finish from last year, but that doesn’t mean he will score a victory this Sunday. I think Elliott’s ceiling is a Top 10 finish.

Denny Hamlin +1400

Among active drivers, Denny Hamlin has the second most DIS career starts with 38 which is just one start behind Busch. Also, among the active field, Hamlin has the most Daytona 500 wins with three.

In 38 DIS appearances, Hamlin has three wins, 11 Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, a 17.6 average finish and six DNFs. However, three of those DNFs have come in the last six races. He’s failed to crack the Top 15 in the six DIS races.

Hamlin last won a Daytona 500 race in 2020 and 2019. He finished 5^th in the 2021 Daytona 500, but has a 24.3 average finish in the last three Daytona 500 races.

Hamlin’s window for winning a Cup Series Championship is closing. The 44-year-old driver isn’t getting any younger, but the competition is.

With that said, I believe we see a very determined Hamlin this weekend. He has the most Top 5s at 11, and I think he can pick up another one this Sunday. In fact, I believe the #11 car can contend for the checkered flag as long as he doesn’t get wrecked.

Kyle Larson +1400

On just about any given week in the NASCAR Cup Series racing season, I will pick Kyle Larson to contend for a checkered flag. However, I run far away from Larson when it comes to the superspeedway. He’s been dreadful at these types of tracks, especially the Daytona International Speedway.

In 21 starts at DIS, Larson has zero wins and Top 5s, five Top 10s, a 22.0 average finish and nine DNFs. He’s scored four DNFs in the last seven races. His best Daytona 500 result was 7^th in 2019 and 2016. Since then, he’s cracked the Top 10 just once (2020).

Larson is my favorite driver and early pick to win the 2025 Cup Series Championship. So, I’m not dumping on the fella. However, fans of the #5 car know that he’s not going to contend for checkered flags regardless if he starts on the pole or not.

Avoid Larson this weekend. I wouldn’t even wager on the 2021 Cup Series Champ to crack the Top 15. In fact, bet against him where possible; as you will see that I’m doing in a head-to-head prop bet below.

The Best Daytona 500 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Daytona 500 based on their previous success at the Daytona International Speedway:

Bubba Wallace +2200

Let me start by saying that I love the betting value that Bubba Wallace provides for this weekend’s Daytona 500 race. In fact, I also like his chances this Sunday more than some of the favorites like Keselowski and Larson.

In 15 DIS starts, Wallace has zero wins, five Top 5s, six Top 10s, 11.9 average finish and just three DNFs. He’s tallied three straight Top 12 finishes and has a 7.6 average finish in the last three DIS events. Wallace was 5^th in the 2024 Daytona 500 race. In fact, Wallace has the best average finish among the field.

In the last nine DIS races, Wallace has nine Top 20 finishes and that includes two DNFs where he ended up 17^th and 20^th.

The #23 car is going to be a factor in this weekend’s race. He’s a Top 10 driver with a race-winning ceiling.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2500

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. isn’t really thought of as a true Playoff contender among the field. Yet, he’s definitely a true contender when it comes to superspeedways.

In 25 starts, Stenhouse has two wins, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s. He has a 20.9 average finish and eight DNFs. In fact, he’s scored five DNFs in the last six races. Yet, the lone race where he didn’t finish with a DNF, was the 2023 Daytona 500 of which he took the checkered flag. That’s also the longest Daytona 500 race in the history of this great sport.

Stenhouse doesn’t have the best of cars, but he’s skilled when it comes to the superspeedways. Unfortunately, he’s been snake bitten with the wrecks.

With that said, his +2500 odds offer value considering he’s only two years removed from winning the Daytona 500.

The Top Daytona 500 Longshot

Austin Dillon (+4000) is my longshot pick to win the Daytona 500. In fact, other than Bubba Wallace, I love Dillon’s odds the most.

In 23 DIS starts, he has two wins, four Top 5s, nine Top 10s, a 17.6 average finish and five DNFs. Dillon won the 2018 Daytona 500 and the 2022 summer/fall Daytona event. He was also third in the 2021 Daytona 500 race.

Like Stenhouse, Dillon has made his name on the back of his superspeedway success. I believe we’ll see Dillon buck the trend of poor results at DIS, to crack the Top 10 this weekend. With a little luck, he could even challenge for the checkered flag like he did in 2021 and 2018.

Daytona 500 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag?

When it comes to Daytona and Talladega, picking the race winner is a crapshoot. The big wrecks late in the race often take out the best cars and provide an opening for a driver to unexpectedly win.

With that said, my Top 5 drivers this weekend are Wallace, Logano, Hamlin, Byron, and Blaney, Bell, Busch or Dillon. I would feel more comfortable picking 10 drivers and hoping one of them wins than picking just one. But that’s why they pay me the big bucks. So, let’s narrow this list down.

Between Logano and Blaney, I prefer Logano. He’s won a Daytona 500 race before and doesn’t enter this weekend with three straight DNFs at DIS like Blaney. Logano was second in the 2023 Daytona 500 race and I believe he will be a factor this weekend.

As cool as it would be to see Busch bounce back and pick up a win over the first weekend of the season, I need to see Rowdy actually take home a checkered flag before picking him to win a race.

Byron is a strong candidate to win this weekend, but I just don’t see the #24 car picking up two Daytona 500 victories in a row. Hamlin was the last man to accomplish that feat and I like his chances more than Byron to win this Sunday.

If there’s one driver more desperate and motivated for a signature moment in his Cup Series career, it’s Bubba Wallace. In fact, everyone at 23XL Racing is highly motivated this weekend after their issues with NASCAR last season and falling short of winning the 2024 Cup Series Championship with Tyler Reddick.

I think Wallace and 23XL Racing are going to get that special moment this weekend after Wallace outlasts the field and fends off contenders like Logano, Byron or Hamlin (part owner of 23XL) to win the 67^th Daytona 500.

Bet: Bubba Wallace (+2200)

NASCAR Daytona 500 Prop Bets

The following Daytona 500 prop bets are courtesy of various sportsbooks like Bet365:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Daytona

Combined, these two drivers have five total wins at Daytona International Speedway. Four of those five wins have come in the Daytona 500. In fact, they’ve won three of the last six Daytona 500 races. They’ve also combined for 11 Top 3 finishes at this track.

Both drivers have proven to be solid, and lucky for the most part, at Daytona. I like this wager because we have two potential winners only needing to crack the Top 3. In fact, we only need one of them to finish in the Top 3 to double our money.

Bet: William Byron or Denny Hamlin (+190)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Daytona 500

I’ve picked Denny Hamlin to finish in the Top 5 and I’ve taken him in the previous prop bet along with Byron to score a Top 3 result. So, let’s hit the Hamlin hat trick by taking him as our best Top 5 bet for the Daytona 500.

At +250 odds, we’re getting a great payout for the 3-time Daytona 500 winner to crack the Top 5. And, when it comes to the chaotic final laps at Daytona, it’s comforting knowing we’re betting on a driver with the most Top 5s among the field.

Hamlin has 11 Top 5 finishes in his 38 starts, which is two more than the next driver – Kyle Busch. Now, I’m not saying for you to put a huge bag on this prop bet because Hamlin hasn’t scored a Top 5 since the 2021 Daytona 500. That was during a stretch where he scored four Top 5s in a five-race stretch at DIS.

Out of all the drivers, Hamlin’s resume is the best when it comes to making our Top 5 bet for the Daytona 500.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+250)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Daytona 500

Unlike the Top 5, we have more wiggle room with our Top 10 bet. We also have more options to choose from. With that said, I’m very surprised to see Bubba Wallace listed with +130 Top 10 odds. That’s just crazy. It’s as if the sportsbooks have never seen him drive at Daytona International Speedway before.

Wallace leads the field with an 11.9 average finish. That’s over three points better than any other full-time Cup Series driver (Bowman at 15.2).

Furthermore, Wallace has six Top 10s in 15 races. He has a 7.6 average finish in the last three DIS races. Over his last seven DIS races, Wallace has three Top 5s, four Top 10s and six Top 12s. In fact, over that span, he has an 8.2 average finish.

Wallace finished 5^th in the 2024 Daytona 500 and 6^th in the 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 race. That’s a 5.5 average finish in the two DIS races last year, which was better than 99.9% of the field. I’ll share with you who actually performed better further below.

Where I suggested a small wager on Hamlin, or any Top 5 bet, you can hammer this one.

Bet: Bubba Wallace (+130)

Daytona 500 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better result in each head-to-head matchup:

Chase Elliott (-115) vs. Kyle Larson (-115)

This head-to-head matchup is a battle of Hendrick Motorsports teammates. And, if you actually read my analysis above, you would see how this H2H prop bet is really a one-sided affair. In fact, it really isn’t a competition which is why I love this one.

Chase Elliott is clearly the driver to take here. Sure, these two teammates are very close in average finish with Elliott at 21.3 and Larson just a bit behind (22.0). However, that is highly misleading if you look at how they’ve both performed over recent years.

Over the last eight races, Elliott has two Top 5s, four Top 10s, and three DNFs. During that same span, Larson has zero Top 5s, one Top 10, and four DNFs.

Elliott should finish higher than Larson provided that they both stay out of trouble on Sunday.  

Bet: Chase Elliott (-115)

Christopher Bell (-115) vs. Bubba Wallace (-115)

It’s funny, but we haven’t talked about Christopher Bell at all for this race preview. And, usually, the #20 car is one of the odds-on favorites each week. However, his +2000 odds put him further down the pecking order for betting favorites.

Bell’s Daytona 500 odds are only slightly better than Wallace’s +2200 race-winning odds. And, you have already seen how much I like Wallace this weekend.

Bell has performed well at Daytona, when you factor in how many DNFs the field has. In 10 starts, Bell has three Top 5s, Three Top 10s, a 17.7 average finish and 4 DNFs.

The only reason why these odds are close is due to Bell’s strong run last year. He actually outperformed Wallace by scoring two third-place finishes in the two DIS events last season. He also has three third-place results in the last four DIS races.  

With that said, Wallace still has more Top 5s, more Top 10s, less DNFs, and a better average finish by almost six points (11.9 to 17.7).

Bet: Bubba Wallace (-115)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+125)
• Ford (+160)
• Toyota (+275)

Chevrolet has won 26 Daytona 500s including the last two in a row. Ford has won 17 Daytona 500 races including the two prior (2021-2022). Toyota only has three race wins in the Daytona 500 with Hamlin picking up all three: 2016, 2019, 2020.

I picked a Toyota to win the race, so let’s stick with that theme here. +275 odds are a line that appeals to me. Also, by picking Toyota, we get all four of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, three 23XL Racing drivers, and three Legacy Motor Club drivers.

JGR features Hamlin, Bell, Ty Gibbs and Chase Briscoe. 23XL Racing features Wallace, Reddick and Herbst. Legacy Motor Club’s three drivers includes Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, and John Hunter Nemechek.

When you can get Hamlin, Bell, and Wallace for a prop bet – you can’t pass that up.

Bet: Toyota (+275)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+400)
• Team Penske (+450)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+500)
• RFK Racing (+700)
• 23XL Racing (+1000)
• Richard Childress Racing (+1000)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1000)
• Front Row Motorsports (+1200)
• Spire Motorsports (+1400)

Typically, with prop bets like this one, I look for hedging opportunities based on the other props in this article or my race winner prediction.

I would avoid Hendrick Motorsports because only Byron has won at DIS. The other three drivers have not. Team Penske and JGR both have numerous wins at DIS including the Daytona 500. RFK racing has Keselowski who’s one of the odds-on favorites. And, we already know my thoughts on 23XL Racing for this event.

With that said, I’m going to hedge here by taking Joe Gibbs Racing. Hamlin is a three-time winner, Bell had a 3.0 average finish last year, and both Chase Briscoe or Ty Gibbs could easily benefit from the late-lap wrecks to sneak into the winner’s circle.

Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing (+500)

Winning Car Number

• Over 19.5 (-115)
• Under 19.5 (-115)

Bubba Wallace drives the #23 car. However, most of my preferred drivers and the odds-on favorites for this race are Under 19.5.

Those drivers include: Cindric (2), Dillon (3), Keselowski (6), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11), Blaney (12), Buescher (17), and Briscoe (19). Of this group, three have won the Daytona 500 before. And, every one of these drivers except for Elliott have won at Daytona International Speedway in their Cup Series careers.

Bet: Under 19.5 (-115)