Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal Boxing Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, July 6^th, two of MMA’s fan favorites will step inside the boxing ring to continue their rivalry beyond the octagon as Nate Diaz battles Jorge Masvidal. This PPV event will be live from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. Fight fans can also watch the boxing attraction live on UFC Fight Pass.

This weekend’s clash of combatants was originally scheduled for June 1^st, but it was moved in order to not compete against a number of big MMA and boxing events like UFC 302, Dmitry Bivol vs. Malik Zinad, and the Deontay Wilder return.  

Let’s take a look at the latest Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Masvidal vs. Diaz predictions.

Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal Preview

Check out the tale of the tape and latest odds for Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal:

Diaz vs. Masvidal: The First Fight

These two MMA stars first clashed at UFC 244 for the inaugural BMF championship. It was an exciting fight as fans were buzzing inside Madison Square Garden. Unfortunately, the bout ended via TKO between the third and fourth rounds as a cage-side physician determined that a cut above Diaz’s right eye would prevent him from continuing with the fight.

Over the years, both men have discussed a desire to face-off in a rematch against each other. Unfortunately, that never came to fruition for one reason or another. However, if you ask Diaz, it was due to the UFC:

Since the two men couldn’t meet inside a cage, they agreed upon doing the next best thing – fighting inside a boxing ring.

Recent Nate Diaz Odds and Fights

Nate Diaz made his pro boxing debut in August 2023, when he took on Jake Paul. Yes, the same Paul who was scheduled to fight Mike Tyson on Netflix but will now face Mike Perry instead.

Diaz ended up losing the contest against Paul via unanimous decision. There were times in that bout where Diaz looked in trouble and on the verge of being stopped. However, in typical Diaz fashion, he was able to grit it out and go the full distance. Diaz was a massive underdog with odds ranging from +280 to +350. Paul was the favorite with odds as high as -550.

Prior to the boxing match, Diaz had gone 2-2 in his last four MMA fights before finishing up his contract with the UFC and departing the promotion. His last fight came in September 2022, where he beat Tony Ferguson via 4^th round submission. It was his 17^th victory via stoppage and 12^th by way of submission.

The victory over Ferguson snapped a two-fight losing streak inside the octagon. He battled Leon Edwards in June 2021, but lost via unanimous decision. Prior to the Edwards bout, he lost to Masvidal in New York, as mentioned above.

A few months before fighting Masvidal the first time, Diaz returned to the UFC after three years away from the sport. He pummeled Anthony Pettis and easily won via unanimous decision. Diaz took a hiatus after frustrations over losing a rematch to Conor McGregor in August 2016, via majority decision.

Recent Jorge Masvidal Odds and Fights

After beating Diaz at UFC 244, Masvidal would go on to lose four fights in a row before ending his time with the UFC, for now. He dropped two in a row to Kamara Usman within nine months of each other. He then lost a grudge fight against Colby Covington 11 months later via unanimous decision.

His last bout took place in April 2023, where Masvidal lost via unanimous decision to Gilbert Burns. Sadly, it also led to Masvidal deciding to step away from MMA for the time being. However, it certainly didn’t stop him from competing in other fight sports. Masvidal finished his MMA career with 16 TKO/KO wins.

In late-2020, Masvidal was a rumored opponent for Floyd Mayweather Jr., but the bout never took place. Masvidal was a +500 underdog against Mayweather who opened at -1000 odds for a potential boxing match. With this foray into boxing against Diaz, Masvidal is hoping to parlay it into fights against Logan Paul and the previously rumored Mayweather:

Diaz vs. Masvidal Predictions

This bout is scheduled to go 10 rounds. I believe Diaz will survive and make it the full distance. With that said, I don’t see any scenario where Diaz wins this fight unless Masvidal gets disqualified. Masvidal, also known as “Street Jesus” or “Gamebred,” is by far the better striker of the two.

Diaz might have been the better all-around MMA fighter, but Masvidal will be the better boxer this weekend. I expect Gamebred to put together the better combos, throw a higher volume of punches, and land the most strikes. Diaz’s toughness will be on display as he withstands the beating and avoids getting stopped.

Take Masvidal to win via unanimous decision as the scores will come back heavily slanted in favor of Street Jesus.

Bet: Jorge Masvidal (-250)

Diaz vs. Masvidal Prop Bets

The following Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal prop bets are courtesy of BetOnline:

Will Fight Go The Distance?

• Yes (-210)
• No (+165)

As mentioned above, I see this fight going the distance. Diaz went the distance with Jake Paul in his lone boxing fight. Plus, without the threat of takedowns, Masvidal can take his time to pick apart Diaz, which may or may not eat up most of the rounds.

Diaz is a survivor. He will be able to hang on when dragged into the deeper waters. In fact, I do see the Californian grabbing and holding on to Masvidal in when in trouble. There’s no value to this prop bet or the Over/Under.

Bet: Yes (-210)

Bet: Yes, fight goes the distance (-210)

Total Rounds Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (-280)
• Under 8.5 (+220)

As mentioned in the boxing prop bet above, I believe this fight will go the full 10 rounds. So, we’ll easily surpass the 8.5 O/U mark. If there is a finish, it could come in the final round of the contest when both men are more fatigued. With that said, Diaz should hang on literally and physically to lose via decision.

Bet: Over 8.5 rounds (-280)

Method of Victory

• Nate Diaz by Decision or Technical Decision +400
• Jorge Masvidal by Decision or Technical Decision +105
• Draw or Technical Draw +1100
• Nate Diaz by KO, TKO or DQ +700
• Jorge Masvidal by KO, TKO or DQ +220

Masvidal is my pick to win this boxing match. He’s the better overall striker and that will prevail in this battled of MMA stars. With that said, the most realistic betting option is for Masvidal to win via decision, which is the odds-on favorite for this prop bet.

If you want a bit more value, then take Masvidal to win via KO/TKO at +220 odds. This is roughly twice the payout as the Masvidal decision betting option. However, there is more risk as most handicappers are picking Masvidal via decision and for this fight to go the full distance.

Bet: Jorge Masvidal by Decision or Technical Decision +105